Down on the Farm: Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2010 and Beyond
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 19, 2010 3:00 PM EST
in Baseball
23 comments
I wrote awhile back about a site that is documenting their Top 25 fantasy prospects for 2010-MLB Fantasy Prospects. The site is run by Bill Root, who writes for RotoExperts, and Stephen Sheridan. They are currently working on the top10 of their Top 25 series.
Here are their Top 25 for 2010 and Beyond in reverse order:
25. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
24. Jarrod Parker, Diamondbacks
23. Jaff Decker, Padres
The big boy was no slouch this year at Low-A hitting .299, with 16 HRs, a .442 OBP, and a .514 SLG. Decker has a phenomenal eye that is indicative of a future fantasy star. He had a 19.2% walk rate and .92 BB/K rate batting third in the Fort Wayne (Padres’ Low-A affiliate) batting order.
22. Eric Young Jr., Rockies
21. Chris Carter, Athletics
The big man cut down on his strikeouts this year as well. Specifically, in 490 ABs at Double-A, Carter cut his strikeout rate down to 24.3%. There’s no question he needs work on this aspect of his game. But, let’s not go critique crazy, dudes with power like this can get away with striking out more than your average bear. It comes with the bomber territory.
20. Brian Matusz, Orioles
19. Hector Rondon, Indians
18. Derek Norris, Nationals
17. Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays
16. Domonic Brown, Phillies
15. Dan Hudson, White Sox
14. Logan Morrison, Marlins
UPDATE (8:30pm): I misunderstood what the list represented, so I updated the headline above so there is no more confusion. Sorry guys.
More after the jump, with excerpts:
13. Aroldis Chapman, Reds
12. Mike Stanton, Marlins
At Double-A, Stanton still hit parking lot bombs, but he was exposed in all other areas. The Marlins’ future right-fielder posted the following stat line: .231 BA, 16 HRs, .311 OBP and .455 SLG. Stanton was clearly in "guess the pitch" mode with a 33.1% K rate, .31 BB/K ratio and 67% contact rate. My guess is this kid will be working on a little thing called pitch recognition next year in the minors.
11. Madison Bumgardner, Giants
There must be some marvelous perks associated with joining the Madison Bumgarner Hate Club. Membership in the club skyrocketed at the end of last season and has continued to trend upward in the offseason. Geez, you would think Bumgarner would receive nothing but love after posting a 12-2 record, 1.85 ERA and .211 BAA across High-A and Double-A last year – as a 20 year-old? Nope, the mad hate has still been flowing for Mad-Bum.
10. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
What I love about Hellickson is he isn’t just a strikeout machine (10.99 K/9 at Triple-A last year) – he also possesses pinpoint control and polished command. Hellickson had 1.16 BB/9 and 2.30 BB/9 walks rates in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
9. Jesus Montero, Yankees
They will complete the rest of the Top 10 by early February, so head on over to MLB Fantasy Prospects and check out what they have to say about their Top 25 fantasy prospect for 2010.
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Surprised by Matusz
I think Matusz will be above Bumgarner and Hellickson in terms of 2010 impact. He’s got frontline stuff with command and secondary pitches that will play well right now. As far as I know, he’s a lock for the rotation this year and should provide good IP for the Orioles.
yes, 2010 impact
lower=below 12, I assume?
I have heard that he could get called up by mid-season…..fwiw.
raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 19, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
i am a bit confused about this list
is it for 2010? because if so, Parker had TJS late in 09 and is likely out for all of 2010. Derek Norris was in A ball last year, I don’t see him making the jomp to the majors in 2010 since his defense is questionable…
Define Impact
If it means to contribute MLB stats in 2010, then the list is laughable. if it means having big trade value in keeper leagues at bail time, not so much.
Log MLB time 2010: Young Jr, Carter, Matusz, Drabek, Hudson, Morrison, Bumgartner, Brown, Hellickson, Montero.
Will inquire.....
he may answer it himself…..but I am not sure how they are ranking them.
raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 19, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
Shhh....... keep quiet on Norris
As the lists starting coming out, I cringe everytime Derek Norris is ranked highly. I don’t want my league mates catching on to him. Almost all on the above list are already gone in my league
Clarification: Top 25 MLB Fantasy Prospects for 2010 AND BEYOND
Hello Folks!
I’m Steve Sheridan, content manager/founder of MLB Fantasy Prospects. This is a listing of our top 25 prospects overall, not nessarily for 2010. In fact, the title of our list is Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2010 and Beyond. The following is an excerpt from Bill Root’s introduction to these rankings, that you can see in full by clicking the link above:
Let’s get this prospect party started with a look at the Top 25 fantasy prospects for 2010 and Beyond. As always, note the emphasis on "fantasy" here at MLBFP. This Top 25 list is based on the long-term fantasy value of the respective players. Yep, this means we don’t want any hate mail if you see some defensive dogs on the list.
Okay, before we get to our list, let’s cover the factors we examine in dissecting a prospect’s fantasy value. Specifically, we look at an individual’s skill set, opportunity for playing time, age, statistical foundation, positional value, potential for short-term impact, upside in specific categories, and the composition of his future major league team. As you can see, we have these prospects covered from every conceivable angle. Now, is the time to add our blog to your "Favorites" and subscribe to our feed if your fingers haven’t made the move as of yet.
by Steve @ MLB Fantasy Prospects on Jan 19, 2010 6:16 PM EST reply actions
with all due respect, (I'm going to come off sounding like a jerk but I don't mean to), I can't take this list seriously
How can a player who you say “Swoop in and grab him when you get a chance; he has No. 2 fantasy starter stuff” about be ranked higher than a player who you say “Whether you look his indicators or watch him paint the corners in game action, it’s clear Matusz is a future front-end fantasy starter” about?
Also, you say Chris Carter “has established himself as the best power-hitting prospect in the game. Go ahead, I challenge you to name a better power-hitting gem in the minors. Bring it.” If power is all you care about, have you heard of a certain Mike Stanton for the Florida Marlins (no, not the pitcher)? Oh wait, you have heard of him, which is why he’s ranked higher (even on your board).
And your prediction that Chapman ends up in pinstripes is genius.
It would be nice to have some updates, so the article doesn’t talk about Matusz being shut down “last week” and how genius it is that “In the end, Amaro moved a bevy of secondary prospects for Cliff Lee and kept the young gun [Drabek] in the organization. Wise move.” Anybody can regurgitate information written previously. Prospects change over time, and so should their writeups.
Thanks for your feedback!
Hey rmarx:
I completely agree with your premise that prospects change over time, and so should their writeups. As Bill points out in his comment, what gets lost in the summary of prospects is that we’ve been posting these ranking over the course of the last few months. Bill and I were just discussing today that we would surely have had Ackley higher on the list if he was sure to be a 2B, which now seems to be the case…but all rankings must start someplace. This is our beginning.
That said, I want you to know that we appreciate your feedback.
by Steve @ MLB Fantasy Prospects on Jan 19, 2010 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
thank you for responding
and again, I really don’t want to sound like a jerk – I just pointed out some things that I disagreed with. And of course, it’s all opinion, and you know what they say about opinions :-)
MLBFP Top 25
Hey guys,
Sorry about the confusion concerning the foundation of the list. The excerpt above should describes it in detail.
Just so you know, the analysis is based on everything from live scouting to indicator analysis. I realize there will be disagreement regarding the ranking of the prospects. Obviously, not everyone is going to agree. I just hope the list gives you guys/gals some additional information to use when you’re at your draft and scooping up prospects.
Also, as you will notice, we started posting this list a few months ago and we have been adding on an ongoing basis. Of course, this means there will be bits of information that may be outdated in earlier posts (i.e. prospects ranked towards the end of the list). However, we will be providing updates in additional posts throughout the offseason, in spring training and during the season.
Hope you enjoy the list! Please come over to MLBFP and look around. Feel free to shoot us any feedback. We welcome any praise, suggestions, and criticism.
—Bill
RMarx
Hey man,
Thanks for your comment. I am disappointed you can’t take the list seriously. I can tell you I’ve torn these prospects apart. That said, I realize there will be disagreement and that everyone isn’t going to satisfied witth the content. We hope to win you over as time progresses.
Listen, because this is a Top 25, most of the comments about the prospects will be favorable. Trust me, if you begin to read my prospect content at MLBFP/RotoExperts/Yahoo, you will learn I love to tear up a prospect when he deserves it. I can’t stand the type of writing that praises everyone. Just want you to know I don’t label everyone a front-end starter or great power prospect…haha.
Here are some specific responses to issues you raise:
—The pitchers you reference are both frontline fantasy starters. Hopefully, I was able to provide you with enough detail in the scouting reports to support a difference in ranking. At the very least, I hope I provide you with enough information to make your own decision regarding them.
—Carter and Stanton are both ELITE power prospects. I think Stanton has more impressive fantasy superstar traits and a better future lineup for the Fish. Thus, he’s ranked higher that Carter. Nevertheless, I do believe Carter is underrated in the fantasy world. I am not sure old CC will appear on many lists.
—Yeah, we took a stand on Chapman. We will always do that for our readers. There’s no doubt we will sometimes be wrong. We also won’t be afraid to admit it. Hey, I am still shocked Reds ended up with the dude.
—As I said, we will hit you with updates thoughout the offseason, spring training and in-season. We don’t want to take down anything we posted just because some of the information may be outdated. We will believe there is useful information in the posts you point out.
Anyway, thanks again for taking the time to read the content and provide feedback.
thanks for your response
I’ll repeat what I said to Steve above, and that is:
Again, I really don’t want to sound like a jerk – I just pointed out some things that I disagreed with. And of course, it’s all opinion, and you know what they say about opinions :-)
as far as winning me over
I’ve added your site to my favorites and plan to check in periodically (every day or every week, depending on how the content looks), so I’m definitely giving it a chance! I love reading other people’s opinions on prospects, and you have one of the few sites that seems (in my very short time on the site earlier) dedicated to dynasty and keeper leagues. I really appreciate that, because I’ve been looking for a long time for good dynasty information. Minor League Ball has been incredible for that – the people here are so knowledgeable (so much more so than I am)!
sorry guys
I misunderstood what the list what for. Now that I know, I do have one question though: how is this list any different from a list from BA or BP, etc? I thought the list was for this year only—my bad. If the list is for 2010 and beyond, why include the year in the list, especially when the list is to be used for fantasy purposes.
I think that is what lead to my confusion as fantasy owners are looking for players who will have impact this year.
raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
...to answer your question
There are surely guys on this list that will have some fantasy impact this season, especially as we get further along on the list. That said, we’ve found that there are many leagues out there that draft minor leaguers, have keepers, and are dynasty leagues. Our list tries to take all into account. There are surely guys on this list that will have some fantasy impact this season, especially as we get further along on the list. We try to keep our readers eyes on who might be coming down the pike. If we only concentrated on minor leaguers/rookies that would have a major fantasy impact in 2010, there wouldn’t be many guys to rank. :)
by Steve @ MLB Fantasy Prospects on Jan 19, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
MLBFP List
Hey Ray,
The Fantasy Top 25 list is different from most other prospect lists (i.e. Baseball America) for one main reason— it’s fantasy-focused. As discussed in the excerpt above, factors we examine in dissecting a prospect’s fantasy value include an individual’s skill set, opportunity for playing time, age, statistical foundation, positional value, potential for short-term impact, upside in specific categories, and the composition of his future major league team. So, while Baseball America may also be looking more long-term like our list, I don’t believe BA is considering most of the factors above in its ranking analylsis. Obviously, we also don’t really look at defensive skills, unless it impacts whether a player stays at a position or playing time.
I have also included a link below to my Top 200 Fantasy Prospect list from last year that specifically describes the differences in the intro. I will be publishing another Top 200 list this year. As you can see, just like the scouting reports for MLBFP, the list also includes player profiles that are fantasy-centered. Hope this helps.
http://rotoexperts.com/content/view/2495/179/
—Bill
fantasy focused
Thanks for the work. I think the fantasy focus of the list is probably best seen with Young. He’s not going to be a top real life player, but he’ll be great in fantasy.
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