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Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 Red Sox for 2010


As we continue evaluating the top 5 players for each team, we arrive at the Boston Red Sox.

1. Jacoby Ellsbury- I'm going against my personal beliefs here and going with Ellsbury as the top Red Sox player in 2010. Ellsbury's speed can vault him above the rest to one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. Ellsbury improved to a .301 batting average and improved his OPS by .041 points. If Ellsbury were to continue to develop, he could steal 70 bases again and be the same player he was in 2009.

2. Dustin Pedroia- This one is basically due to position scarcity. Pedroia will score around 110 runs and hit .300. Other than that, he won't excel in any other stat. Sure, he'll steal 15-20 bases, but he doesn't excel in any other stats. If you want a safe bet at 2B, Pedroia is probably one of the best options not to kill your team.

3. Kevin Youkilis-  If you believe in paying a hefty price for a large amount of steals, Ellsbury is your man. Personally, I like guys who contribute in many categories as opposed to excelling in one category. While Ellsbury will steal at least 50 bases, hit .300 and could score 100 runs, Youk can hit 30+ HR, score 100 runs with 100+ RBI and a near .300+ average. Not only that, but Youkilis will be drafted several rounds later than Ellsbury (2nd or 3rd.)

4. Victor Martinez- As I mentioned about Pedroia, position scarcity plays a part in Victor Martinez being the number four option. Even with an abysmal 2008 season, Martinez has a career OPS of .837. Playing a full season in Boston will probably bump Martinez's totals to 20 HR, 80, runs, 100 RBI and .300 average. Those stats from a catcher are very attractive around the number 50 overall.

5. Jon Lester- After putting up a career high 9.96 K/9 and a 3.41, Lester will be drafted higher than Josh Beckett and John Lackey. Bill James seems to think Lester will regress to a 3.84 ERA and see his BB/9 increase from 2.82 and 2.83 in 2009 to 3.50 in 2010. James also thinks Lester's ERA will be very close to 4.00. While I'm not the expert James is, I don't think Lester's BB/9 increases that much. I can see his K/9 dropping but I still don't think it'll be enough to drop Lester below Beckett.

Sleeper alert: Adrian Beltre. Beltre apparently hates Safeco field and it's unfavorable left field bleachers. What's the first stadium that pops into your head as a righty favorable park? Fenway? Beltre will likely be coming at a discount because of his injury plagued season in 2009. If you're heading into the later rounds and you see Beltre there, I'd absolutely snag him. He has the ability to hit 25 home runs and in a lineup like that, he may have the ability to drive in 100 runs and score 85-90.

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I know it’s kind of late in the game now, but it would be interesting to see what fantasy prospect from each team will have the biggest fantasy impact in 2010. This wouldn’t necessarily be the best prospect – just the one with the most 2010 impact. Or, you could do the most lifetime (i.e. dynasty league) impact.

Again, I understand it’s too late now – I just wanted to get my 2 cents in. Now I’m broke!

by rmarx on Jan 19, 2010 10:34 PM EST reply actions  

great idea

but maybe Ian and I can put together seperate posts for those, as the Top 5’s are geared to mixed league fantasy owners. There won’t be too many prospects drafted in mixed leagues, but that could change once spring training starts, and we learn about the various position battles around the league.
I did post a top fantasy prospect article last year, so I could do the same this year.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 19, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve done a couple of posts regarding some of the pitching prospects in the game. It’s in my plans to continue this with pitching, but I’d love to put together something for hitters as well. I mainly play in dynasty and keeper leagues, so I love prospects and minor league drafts. Here are the two I wrote up earlier…

http://www.faketeams.com/2010/1/1/1229487/fantasy-baseball-dynasty-league

http://www.faketeams.com/2010/1/9/1241984/fantasy-baseball-dynasty-league

by Ian, yo on Jan 19, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions  

VMart

Top fantasy player on Sawx. I know Ellsbury has the speed, but there is plenty of speed to be had.

20/90/.300 at Catcher is limited to maybe five catchers and the drop from there is scary.

by faketeams on Jan 20, 2010 9:57 AM EST reply actions  

big poopi

beltre won’t pan out as a sleeper pick .
instead he will be as over-hyped as a last – minute hot tip from the kennel .

save all the position scarcity , and lack of position , arguments ,
if sleeper is defined in terms of + “value” ,
then , imo , ortiz will provide that ,
more than anyone else in the sawx line-up .

p.s. you write some nice articles here .
i am especially enjoying the player analysis on this top 5 player / team series .

by big o on Jan 23, 2010 2:15 AM EST reply actions  

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