Fantasy Baseball: Ranking Some Young Outfielders
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 13, 2010 8:00 AM EST
in Baseball
11 comments
A member over at Minor League Ball posted a fanpost asking to rank some young outfielder for fantasy purposes, so I decided to take a stab at ranking the outfielders for him.
Here is his initial post:
Please rank these players (listed alphabetically) both for 2010 and for the future:
- Jay Bruce
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Dexter Fowler
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Jason Heyward
- Fernando Martinez
- Cameron Maybin
- Andrew McCutchen
- Colby Rasmus
- Travis Snider
- Mike Stanton
Disclosure: The reason I'm posting this is selfish - it's for fantasy purposes, specifically for my Dynasty League. I have Bruce, Snider, Maybin, Fowler and Martinez on my team and may need to drop one to make room, so I'm really looking for who to drop and/or who to take in his place. You can take this conversation any way you'd like, though.
Check out my rankings after the jump:
Here are my rankings for 2010:
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jay Bruce
Andrew McCutchen
Carlos Gonzalez
Travis Snider
Colby Rasmus
Cameron Maybin
Dexter Fowler
Jason Heyward
Fernando Martinez
Mike Stanton
There is a chance Stanton gets some at bats in Florida come June/July, but he would have to reduce his strikeouts a bit, or continue to tear up the AA ball like he did A/A+ the last two years. Ellsbury gets the top ranking due to his solid average and huge SB numbers. I think Bruce puts together a solid 30-90 season in 2010. I like McCutchen alot, and he could give you a 20-20 season this year.
The next 5 guys-Gonzalez, Snider, Fowler, Rasmus and Maybin will be given starting jobs in 2010, and could be ranked differently by the end of the season. I think Rasmus could make a name for himself in 2010, as could Snider and CarGo. I am not too high on Fowler.
The next 3-Heyward, Martinez and Stanton are very close to being major league ready, but need more seasoning in AA/AAA., although Heyward could win the Braves RF job out of spring training.
Here are my rankings for 2011 and beyond:
Jason Heyward
Jay Bruce
Andrew McCutchen
Jacoby Ellsbury
Colby Rasmus
Mike Stanton
Travis Snider
Cameron Maybin
Carlos Gonzalez
Dexter Fowler
Fernando Martinez
It is more difficult to rank these guys over the long term because we don't know if all of them will produce at the major league level like they did in the minors, or if they will reach the potential that all the prospect experts have set for them.
Heyward seems destined for a very nice career, as is Ellsbury, McCutchen and Bruce. I rank Ellsbury behind McCutchen and Bruce as he is not the power hitter that these two are/will be. The remaining guys on this list all have question marks, some more than others. But it will be exciting watching each of them.
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I think Carlos Gonzalez has the best power potential out of the players on your list I have seen play. Bruce might be next- as far as the Reds go I kinda like Drew Stubbs too. Fowler had a fairly decent rookie season but got hurt about mid-year and lost ab’s to Carlos Gonzalez and some others in the crowded Rockie outfield. But Fowler did see quite a bit of time down the stretch and in the playoffs- just not everyday starting OF at bats. The Rockies appear to have faith in him but we’ll just have to see how this plays out. And we don’t know how much of Fowler’s disappointing stretch drive was due to injury, fatigue or being over matched but he doesn’t really have the “power” resume and seems more like a .270/.350 guy with doubles/sb’s potential who will not strike out a lot and get his fair number of bb’s. Not really exciting fantasy-wise.
Ellsbury seems a bit old for this list.
as the original poster on MinorLeagueBall
I can tell you that I put Ellsbury on there because I know him well and wanted to see how people compared the other players to him. But yes, he doesn’t really fit in the experience-level of the other players.
I can tell you from watching Travis Snider that he certainly has “potential” mega power. When he learns to hit off field, hes going to be a Carlos Delgado, or kind of like what the jays also have right now, a Adam Lind. Power to all sides of the plate. I just don’t think Travis Snider will be any more than a .280-ish hitter. Lind/Delgado are/were .300+ hitters in contrast. But I can surely see 30+ home runs in the future from a full time comfortable playing Snider.
by Jesse Taylor on Jan 14, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Fowler-
One thing about Fowler is his sb potential. If he stays healthy and continues to have decent plate appearances I could certainly see him in the 40+ sb category.
Fowler
You are definitely underestimating Fowler. In 2009 he went 266/363/406 with 4 HR 34 RBI and 27SB. He also walked 67 times!!! This as a 23 year old with no real experience above AA ball (he had 26 MLB AB’s in 08). There are a lot of great names on that list, so I don’t dispute the ranking but I do not know why you “are not that high on him”
Fowler
so what would you project from Fowler during a “standard” year and at his peak? I’m very curious (I just picked him up in my Dynasty league and have no idea what to expect from him)
projections
are obviously tough but in my opinion if you have a player with a mature approach (great plate discipline and makeup) along with the physical tools then the sky is the limit. I guess a lot depends on how much you think his power can develop…if you want to dream 320 AVG, 20HR, 50 SB at his peak. If you want to be cautious… 280/15/40
re
so it sounds like Fowler may be Ellsbury in disguise…
well
i think fowler will turn out to be a better baseball player than ellsbury. would be tough to be a better fantasy player though…hard to project anyone to steal 70 bases. but in real life ellsbury is a barely average offensive player and i don’t really see much room for growth whereas fowler was as good as ellsbury last year (in real baseball) and has a chance to get a lot better
I'll take a shot at my own rankings for 2011+
Tier 1:
Jason Heyward / Jay Bruce
Tier 2:
Carlos Gonzalez
Andrew McCutchen
Jacoby Ellsbury
Tier 3:
Colby Rasmus
Travis Snider
Cameron Maybin
Tier 4:
Dexter Fowler
Mike Stanton
Fernando Martinez
Heyward and Bruce are interchangeable for me right now. I think CarGo will develop (soon) into a middle-of-the-order bat, and it does help that he has a good lineup around him and he plays in COL. I’m not as high on Rasmus as most, and I have no idea why. I just don’t think Stanton will hit the ball enough to make an impact.
I’d like to hear people’s thoughts on Snider and Maybin – they were such highly touted so recently that I can’t see them falling off the face of the earth like some people have ranked them. I think Snider will mash and can put up a .280 average with 35 HRs and 100+ RBI. IMHO Maybin can be a 20-50 guy along the lines of (gulp) 2007 Eric Byrnes if he learns to harness his speed more at the major league level.
From a fan of the jays whos been watching Snider for years now, Snider came out of the blocks on fire with 3HRs & 5RBI in his first 6 games, carrying a .310+ average. But toward the end of April and really the rest of the season he struggled to hit for any real average and when watching him, he just looked frustrated and at times over matched.
He’s young, like 21, so I have faith he can turn into something like you said also, a .280 / 35HR / 100RBI type player. Its there, you can see it some times like his monster game in Minnesota (2HR, 3RBI, 1SB), he just needs bring it all together.
by Jesse Taylor on Jan 14, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
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