Fantasy Baseball: Should Wins Be Excluded From Fantasy/Roto Leagues

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 4, 2009 10:00 AM EDT in Baseball

I was reading Keith Law's ESPN chat this afternoon and had to agree with his response below:

Gus (NY)

Greinke's ERA is phenomenal, but he only has 13 W's. Mo hasn't given up a run since April in many more pressure situations.

Keith Law
(1:24 PM)

You have officially failed this chat. Report to Remedial Baseball immediately. First lesson: Why Wins are the worst measure of a starter's performance.

After watching the Giants Tim Lincecum pitch a gem tonight against Philadelphia and not get a win is ridiculous. I've watched the Dodgers Randy Wolf and his low 3 ERA pitch well all season but he only has 8 wins. Same for Clayton Kershaw with the Dodgers. Yet all three of these pitchers have pitched great this season.

Wins as a category in roto/fantasy baseball is probably the hardest category to predict. And as KLaw states above it does not give an accurate measure of how well as pitcher has pitched.

So what category should replace wins? How about K/9 or K/BB ratio?? How about quality starts? A pitcher can put up wonderful pitching stats yet not earn a win, but still get credit for a quality start.

To give you an example, since the All Star break, Lincecum has had 10 starts, 8 quality starts, and only 3 wins to show for it. He has an ERA around 2.30 and a WHIP under 1, and only 3 wins.

Kershaw has had 7 quality starts in his 10 starts from the ASB, an ERA OF 2.40 and a WHIP around 1.20, and only 2 wins to show for his performance. Wins do not give an accurate picture of how well a pitcher has pitched.

On the other side of the ledger, you have the Brewers Manny Parra. Since the ASB, he has started 11 games, with 7 wins and 2 quality starts, an ERA around 6.40 and a WHIP around 2.00.

Parra is the perfect reason why wins should not be a roto/fantasy category.

Poll

Which pitching category should replace wins in roto/fantasy baseball?

Quality Starts

74 votes

K/9

5 votes

K/BB

16 votes

K-BB

3 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

4x4

I suspect QS would boost the SP towards parity with the RP as the pitching categories would be two ratios each and one each that is exclusively for a SP or RP. It wouldn’t be exact as there will still be many fewer RP who get saves than SP that get QS.

Nicotine patching at Rotisserie Musings

by faketeams on Sep 5, 2009 7:53 AM EDT reply actions

Fundamentally disagree

As you say, wins are often difficult to predict and are not always reflective of a pitcher’s quality.

To that I respond: so what?!

Looking at a few other stats, Saves don’t reflect a pitcher’s ability either, and managers play by the save rule. Stolen bases don’t have a huge correlation with better offense. But we still like them for fantasy, and there need to be cumulative stats to make fantasy work. Pitchers in standard 5×5 leagues already have two rate stats, so a third doesn’t make sense or there would be no reason to throw anyone but high-powered closers.

That leaves Quality Starts … possibly a less meaningful stat even than wins. Since when is going six innings with a 4.50 ERA more valuable in measuring a pitcher’s ability than earning a win? Any pitching category that rewards rostering Livan Hernandez has to go.

Wins matter in real life, at least. So I’m not sold on replacing the category in fantasy, even though it’s true that it’s not a great stat. Furthermore, having wins means there’s a reason to roster the Manny Parras of the world — and isn’t one of the joys of a deep league that even marginal and poor players can play a role?

by Xavier. on Sep 5, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions

Clarification

I realize that wasn’t entirely clear. What I meant by the Livan vs. Parra bit was that there should be a tradeoff in chasing Wins/QS in how ERA/WHIP are torpedoed. In deciding between Wins and QS, though, I don’t like rewarding a pitcher for allowing 3 runs in 6 innings. If he wins, that’s at least something meaningful that you can count.

So while Wins are the bastard child category in fantasy, it seems better than the alternatives.

by Xavier. on Sep 5, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions