Fantasy Baseball: Is Ryan Braun Over-Hyped?

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 26, 2009 9:00 AM EDT in Baseball Comment 12 comments

Two days ago, I posted my top NL outfielders, with the Dodgers Matt Kemp as my number 1 outfielder in the NL ahead of Ryan Braun. A few weeks ago, I ranked Matt Kemp ahead of Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez in NL-only leagues for 2010. Readers of Faketeams have questioned my ranking of Matt Kemp. Today, I present more stats for my stance on Matt Kemp vs Ryan Braun.

Here are their stats through Thursday 9/24/2009:

Player	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Kemp, Matt CF LA	575	96	176	26	100	51	134	34	0.306	0.362	0.510
Braun, Ryan J. LF MIL	593	106	185	29	103	56	112	16	0.312	0.381	0.536

Their stats are about even. Kemp has 18 more SBs than Braun, while Braun has 3 more HRs and RBI than Kemp, along with 10 more runs scored. Braun has the power to hit 40 HRs in the near future. I think he is an excellent hitter, and will be drafted before Kemp in many drafts in 2010. But should he? I say no.

Consider that Kemp spent most of the season hitting between 6th and 8th in the Dodgers lineup, while Braun hit 3rd in the Brewers lineup all year. Recently, manager Joe Torre has been hitting Kemp 4th or 5th in the lineup, which is where he will probably hit for most of next season. So, he spent most of the season hitting in the bottom 3rd of the Dodgers lineup, and still has comparable stats to Braun.

Braun is a great hitter, and even better power hitter. He hits in a Brewers lineup with Prince Fielder hitting behind him. Yet, his power numbers are down from the last two years, and his HR/FB% has dropped each of the last two years, while Kemp's HR/FB% has increased this season. In addition, his walks are up, his K's are down, and he is hitting more fly balls than Braun.

What happens should the Brewers trade Prince Fielder? There have been a few rumors that the Brewers may dangle Prince this offseason for much needed pitching help. Plenty of teams will be calling GM Doug Melvin this offseason. The Brewers will have a tough time signing Fielder to a long term deal.

This is something to consider come draft day 2010.

Poll

Is Ryan Braun the top outfielder taken in NL leagues in 2010?

No, his power numbers are down and could get worse should the Brewers deal Fielder.

43 votes

Yes, its just a down year for him. He will approach 40 bombs in 2010.

72 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

i agree that kemp is the #1 OF in the NL

But that does not mean Braun is overhyped. He still is a top 3 OF in the NL, and a late 1st rounder in mixed leagues. I’m not seeing a Josh Hamilton drop off for him this upcoming year, so I’m not sure where the “overhype” comes in.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Sep 26, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

Kemp is an excellent player on an excellent team…. but Braun gets 81 games in a much better hitters park than Kemp…. and he will always be surrounded by decent hitting… even if they lose Fielder.

Braun is a legitimate 40 homer threat every year… Kemp probably has a ceiling of 30 homers.

Also….. you can pick up cheap steal machines like Bourn etc off the dumpster and get 50-60 steals that will offset any difference between the two players. It’s much harder to get 40 homer guys in the waning years of PED

by Bob_24798 on Sep 26, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

tough to say that Kemp has a 30 HR ceiling

when he’ll be right around that number this year at age 25. Not to mention he only started hitting homers in June/July. Next year, hitting cleanup all year, he’ll be more of a power hitter. Especially in the early months. I agree that Braun is the better power hitter, but I think Kemp approaches 40 HR’s in the next few years as well

Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?

by bucknellbruin on Sep 28, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

kemp

I still can’t believe you dealt Kemp.

by faketeams on Sep 26, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

don't remind me

what was I thinking? ugh

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 26, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Though the trade does help make your point on Kemp

Except for SBs (+12), Bourn + Howard did not much more than replace Kemp.

by Rad on Sep 26, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, but I think Braun is the top outfielder drafted next year. He’s been pretty consistent over the last few years and while Kemp has much more potential and upside, I’d like to see another season of it before I put him ahead of Braun.

by Ian, yo on Sep 26, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kemp

my stance is you should get Kemp before he has a monster year….which I think will come in 2010.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 26, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where's all the love for J-up?

earlier this week, he was going to be the #2 OF in the NL behind Kemp, and above braun? Just saying

by Hyatt on Sep 26, 2009 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good point

I still have time to change my rankings though. J-Up could put up better numbers than Braun across the board in 2010. I compared to Braun as a few commenters in my top 15 OFers post stated they would take Braun first.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 26, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m in dynasty and keeper league and I overdrafted Upton this year in each one. I’m the biggest Justin Upton homer on Earth I think and I’m not even a D-Backs fan.

Guy will be something special and I think it’ll be 2010.

by Ian, yo on Sep 27, 2009 1:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs