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Prospect Prologue: Giants Foursome Comes Up Short

 

In recent years, San Francisco’s clubhouse has been a retirement home, with each offseason providing general manager Brian Sabean another opportunity to add maturity and mediocrity.

But heading into the 2009 season, a silver lining appeared – and, no, it wasn’t Randy Winn’s hairline.

Help was on the way for Tim Lincicum and Matt Cain and Co. The organization’s farm system was named one of baseball’s 10 best, with a foursome as elite as any.

Left-handed hurler Madison Bumgarner, catcher Buster Posey, first baseman Angel Villalona and righty Tim Alderson were sure to form the nucleus of a contender for the next decade.

Funny thing about those prospect rankings – the path from potential to reality can be long and windy, and sometimes a dead end.

Now, at the end of the 2009 season, and we find the Giants with 50 percent of that foursome out of the picture, and another a disappointment.

First, the Giants, in a move reminiscent of the Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano debacle, shipped Alderson at the trade deadline to the Pirates for, appropriately, the aging Freddy Sanchez.

Most recently, the 19-year-old phenom Villalona’s career was put on life support. Or maybe death row. He was jailed on murder charges Monday stemming from the fatal shooting of a man at a Dominican nightclub.

Perhaps Sabean has been smart to stay away from high-profile youngsters for the most part.

Bumgarner, 20, would seem to be progressing, becoming the second-youngest San Francisco Giant to start a game on Sept. 8, but he has lost a significant amount of zip on his fastball. While he was regularly hitting 95-97 mph with his heater last year, he’s now throwing 89-91. It might be because his arm slot has gone from about three-quarters to almost side-arm. Instead of appearing like an eventual ace, he looks like a situational reliever.

Bumgarner has had success in his two big league appearances (6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), but his K/9 has fallen to 7.0 in the minors this season from 10.4 last year.

While he is available in Yahoo leagues, and you may consider stashing him to see if he rediscovers the life on his heater, I find myself jumping off the MadBum bandwagon.  

Admittedly, it’s a pretty steep decline in my assessment in one season. I had previously favored him over Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson. We can only hope Bumgarner has simply run out of gas, or his mechanics will soon be corrected.

The bright light on the horizon for San Francisco’s farm system now beams from Posey, who had a tremendous season hitting .325, 18 HRs, 80 R, 80 RBI, 62 BB, 68 K and a .947 OPS. He is 1-for-3 in the Majors after a September call-up and is a must-grab in all keeper leagues for that day when Bengie Molina is put out to pasture for good.

Of course, that’s also assuming Sabean doesn’t go out and sign Pudge Rodriguez.

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curious

where the Giants rank in the BA/BP farm system rankings after this year. Alderson turned out to not be the stud everyone thought, Villalona probably will never see PacBell, or whatever the stadium is called, and MadBum certainly hasn’t pitched as well in the 2nd half of the year.
It will be interesting to see how Posey does playing everyday in 2010. Will he perform better than Wieters?

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 24, 2009 8:31 AM EDT reply actions  

That's because Alderson was never that good a prospect to begin with

The good thing about him was that at age 20 he was pretty close to what he was going to be, a middle of rotation starter. Because he got placed relatively high on some prospect lists, people made a bigger deal about him, but people who follow Giants prospects closely knew what his potential was.

It’s called AT&T Park.

Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 29, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Did you have a hard time trying to find something negative to say about Buster Posey or did you forget to finish your blog post? Madison looked like he was throwing harder Tuesday night. Certainly looked better than Cain.

by ECUmedford on Sep 24, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions  

???

I think he ended it well by saying Posey is a must grab in keeper leagues. He started by saying that 2 of the 4 Giants prospects are out of the picture now (Alderson and Villalona) and one is a bit of a disappointment-MadBum.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 24, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions  

Sorry, didn’t see the highlight name for him.

by ECUmedford on Sep 24, 2009 10:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Giants fan here.

Im trying to stay optimistic (which is tough on Giants fans)

Villalona may end up being fine, its still a toss up there, and MadBum has no thrown as many innings as he did this year. I do believe he will still be a good pitcher at some point. And we have Buster Posey who, if our dumbass manager ever decides ton play, will hopefully be the offensive force the Giants need to complement Sandoval. Also, some lesser known prospects in the Giants system are coming along nicely such as Thomas Neal ( .337 BA, 431. OBP, 22 Hrs in A ball). Look for the Giants to stay in contention the next couple years.

#1 threat to America: Pandas
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Sep 28, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Nice, but it would be better if you did deeper analysis...

Or better, engage some Giants fans who know more about the situation before you write on it, or at least read through some of the discussions on the Giants prospects on the SB Nation Giants site, McCovey Chronicles.

Bumgarner appeared to be at his normal velocity earlier in the season. He had no problem striking out Manny Ramirez in spring training and getting a nice comment from da Manny about how good he is. Somewhere in the middle of the season, he lost velocity. According to Mike Krukow, one of the Giants broadcasters, young pitchers sometimes go through such a dead arm period early in their pro career, as they adjust to pitching in the pros. The good news is that even without his fastball going at the velocity he is used to, he was able to adjust his pitching in order to be effective still, even in the majors.

So Giants fans will wait with bated breath for whether his velocity returns next season. If it does, basically we will have a crafty lefty pitcher who can blaze a fastball by the batter too when he feels like it. If it does not, he’ll still be a good pitcher, though not to the level of Lincecum or Cain, but certainly at least better than a middle of rotation pitcher, the question is how much better.

Villalona is too soon to say what’s going to happen to him legally. I suspect that there will be no creditable accounts of what happened, and unless they can find a gun with his fingerprints on it, he’s going to walk. Many don’t like him as a prospect, but I think they are reacting to his numbers like he’s another prospect and forget that not only was he an 18 year old playing in a league of 22-24 year olds, and was not only holding his own early on, he was doing well (800+ OPS) while he was also still adjusting to another culture and living on his own at age 18 in a land where most don’t speak his language (though being in San Jose had to help, many Spanish speakers here).

Still, despite the advantages the pitchers have on him age-wise, he had no problems hitting homers off of them, he was among the league leaders in Augusta and was among the leaders in San Jose until he apparently hurt himself but continued playing (look at his stats in June, it was not like he couldn’t hit the pitches anymore, his BABIP just went way down low, making me suspect that the leg problems that eventually shut him down started much earlier than then.

Alderson was a disappointment but only people not close to the Giants prospect watching would think that he was anything special. Even from the day he was drafted, the potential was middle of rotation pitcher, no more, no less. The only reason he was rated so highly was because he was only 20 and yet very close to making the majors and reaching his potential. That gave him high rankings but many Giants fans knew what was up with him and not too surprised, his K-rate was already low last season, so this season was foreseeable.

Of course, Posey has fulfilled our dreams for the most part. I have not heard one word that his defense is not coming along OK. He also talked confidently about that. He had a very high CS%, mid-40%, and hit the ball well in San Jose and continued to do it in AAA once he adjusted to the league, which took 2-3 weeks of poor hitting. I mean, if Mike Piazza could survive as a catcher all these years, and most scouts had Posey having the toolset to handle the position very well, I don’t see how he won’t become good enough there, and same for his offense. If he can be average at both for us next year, that would be OK with me, even Will Clark had an OK season to start his career before he figured things out.

Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 29, 2009 1:03 AM EDT reply actions  

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