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Fantasy Baseball: Keeper/Dynasty AL Top 10 starters for 2010.

 

The National League has clearly ruled the stat sheet when it comes to pitching this year, but there are still quite a few names out there in the AL. Here's my 2010 AL starting pitcher ratings for those of you with keeper and dynasty deadlines approaching.

 

1. Zack Greinke- Lots of people were calling him a good buy in the preseason and was being drafted at around 138 overall. He was drafted around the likes of Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe, and David Price but has outperformed all of those guys by leaps and bounds. It's possible that he's going to win the Cy Young award on a horrendous offense as well. Be happy you were able to sit back and watch one of the greatest pitching seasons of the 2000's and have no concerns with him as your number one starter in AL only leagues.

2. Felix Hernandez- If I were to ask you to pick out the younger of Felix Hernandez and David Price, could you get it right without looking? Well, if you think about it, it's pretty easy to answer since I'm writing about one of these players. That's right. Felix Hernandez is only 23 years old and is improving more and more each year, finally making the jump to a true ace in 2009. Currently, Hernandez and Greinke are likely the two guys fighting the Cy Young award and could do so for the next  five years plus. Since he's on an upward trend and hasn't come close to hitting his prime, look out for Felix to provide you with a true ace for years to come and watch as he could possibly get better and better each year.

3. Roy Halladay- I have a hard time actually putting Halladay over the first two players because of his slide after all of the trade rumors during the latest deadline. Halladay was and has been one of baseball's most consistent starters over the last several years and I think all of the trade talks and rumors could have caused a bit of grief for Halladay and hopefully Doc returns to form in 2010. You should also keep in mind that Halladay still could be traded during this offseason and if that were to happen, he'd likely get an increase in value since he'd be moving to a good, contending team and possibly out of the AL East.

4. CC Sabathia- This is a hard one for me to decide. CC started out slow in the 2009 season but has since lowered his final numbers to a very respectable level. It's hard to drop in rank a guy pitching for one of the best offenses in baseball that puts up decent peripheral numbers.

5. Justin Verlander- Verlander has finally returned to his 2007 and earlier form. He's currently leading the AL in strikeouts and will take home that crown barring a miracle from Greinke and has a BB/9 2.44, the lowest mark in his major league career. Along with the decreased BB/9 ratio, he's got the highest K/9 in his career. Some regression can be expected but even with a regression, Verlander is still a lights out starter. If he can keep the walks under control and if luck is in his favor, Verlander can be easily be moved up this list and above Sabathia.

6. Jon Lester- Lester made significant improvements in 2009 in his K/9 ratio. Lester has a K/9 of nearly 10 and has kept his walk rate in check with his first full season in 2008. There's no telling if Lester will keep the strikeout rate up, but we've seen how effective Lester can be with a lower K/9 and there's no reason to think he'd be any worse.

7. Josh Beckett- Beckett's regressed a bit over the last year but has still been a fairly decent ace. Whether you want to call Beckett's 2007 season a career year or you think he's got a better season ahead of him is entirely up to you. I personally think Beckett will not likely return to 2007 form and the Josh we're seeing now will be the Josh of the future. Beckett's had stretches in 2009 where he was nearly  unhittable and stretches where he was just torched. If you're hoping for him to be atop this list at the end of 2010, I think you're in for disappointment. But if you want a pitcher who can get you around 200 innings and roughly a little less strikeouts, Beckett is nearly as safe a bet as any.

8. Jake Peavy- Peavy's got the talent to be at the top of this list but injury concerns and a move to a very hitter friendly park and out of one of baseball's best pitchers parks in San Diego. Peavy will finally have a decent offense to back him in the south side and if you're getting him late in drafts next year, you're not losing out if he ends up getting hurt AGAIN, but you are gaining if he returns to form and puts up a full season. I expect Peavy's ERA to rise a bit, but I don't think it will be enough to warrant dropping him out of the top ten.

9. John Lackey- Lackey's been injured for an extended amount of time at season start in the last two seasons and bounced back well each year. The concern with Lackey could fall in where he lands this offseason. The Angels trade for Scott Kazmir could be a precursor to letting Lackey walk in free agency. If this is the case, you've got to be sure the Yankees, Red Sox and all other big market teams will have their turn in the negotiations for Lackey. Chances are pretty good that he'll go to a contender and if not, he can still put up very good, consistent numbers.

10. Scott Kazmir- Early on in the season, you'd never expect to see Kazmir anywhere near anyone's top 10 rankings. Over the last month of the season, Kazmir's put up a line of 31.1 IP, 29 K, 1.44 ERA and .96 WHIP. Like a lot of guys, you've got to be concerned with Kazmir and injuries and also with his inability to go late into games. Barring any sort of injury, I think Kazmir could float up and down this list and I would have no problems snagging him as the tenth starter off the board.

 

That's all for now, folks. Look for updated rankings later on in the year.

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Couple of points

Yes Felix is really young, but at this point his arm is not all that young with matters more I think. The wear and tear compared to a guy like Price is gonna matter. I think years in the league are a better way to judge the “age” then birthdays for pitchers.

Peavy will not be an ace next year. He will be coming off an injury, going from the top pitchers bark to a hitters park, and going from the NL to the AL. I just dont see him being an Ace any longer if I owned him and could get top 10 vaule for him Id move him in a heartbeat.

Id take Edwin Jackson before Peavy, Lacky, and Kazmir.

"There are no next times when you're competing for big things." - Tom Izzo
Go Spartans

by msufan23 on Sep 24, 2009 2:43 AM EDT reply actions  

You’ve seen Edwin Jackson’s tailspin the last few months, right? I’m not saying he’s a bad pitcher by any means but give me at least one full, consistent season and I’ll consider adding him to the list. Jarrod Washburn pitched well enough to be a top ten candidate as well. Would you take him over Lackey?

by Ian, yo on Sep 24, 2009 7:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Washburn pitched well In the first half.*

by Ian, yo on Sep 24, 2009 8:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Great article here.

I totally agree here. As a Royals fan, I’ve had the misfortune of drafting Greinke nearly every season but this one, and the pitching staff in my competitive AL-auction league has been what’s held my team down despite owning two of the above players (Lackey and Beckett).

msufan, Sparty On but tough loss (and Nichols is better in my opinion), but I agree here on Jackson with Ian. I was actually mistakenly higher on Galarraga than Jackson this year, but Jackson’s second-half regression has made me feel a tad bit better. He’s come back down to earth, even though he should have several more wins pitching as good as Verlander for a good chunk of the season.

I’m still not sure I’m ready to put King Felix ahead of Roy Halladay and Sabathia. Halladay is just insanely consistent, and while wins are unpredictable (and Hernandez won a good share this year), being on a Yankees team is going to always get you plenty. I might go Halladay, Hernandez then C.C., but I’d have to think hard about it.

I highly doubt Lackey stays in an Angels uniform, but after the first nine, you make a good point; Kazmir could go up or down, but the guys that come after him don’t inspire a lot of confidence. If I’m in an AL-only league, I want to get at least one of those top ones to anchor my staff even if you’re spending little on pitching probably. Guys like Matt Garza, Gavin Gloyd, John Danks, Edwin Jackson and some others are the guys that probably come next, and I’m not feeling too good about them as my ace.

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by Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) on Sep 24, 2009 8:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Felix and Halladay

tehre will be plenty of rumors once the Hot Stove heats up after the WS this year involving Felix and Halladay. There is talk that Ricciardi is on the hot seat for not trading Halladay by the July 31st trade deadline.
There will be plenty of teams looking at Halladay this offseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised he gets dealt. I am sure the Angels will be hot after him should Lackey leave.
And Boston may fire up the Felix trade talks again.
Should be an interesting Hot Stove this year….just around the corner.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 24, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions  

"And Boston may fire up the Felix trade talks again."

I think you mean, “And Boston [media] may fire up the Felix trade talks again.”

If Boston wants Felix, it will have to be a 3-team trade. Boston doesn’t have the types of players Zduriencik (M’s GM) looks for.

by JonBBT on Sep 24, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Puzzling how you have Halladay and Felix ahead of CC – CC has nto lost a game since July 28th!!

by robg62 on Sep 26, 2009 10:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Over the last month of the season, Felix Hernandez is ranked higher than Sabathia.

Give me the 23 year old, ground ball/strikeout guy in Safeco with the best defense in baseball. I also forgot….The AL West rather than AL East.

by Ian, yo on Sep 27, 2009 1:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Furthermore

Jacksons BABIP is 20 points under “normal” and his FIP is a while point above his ERA.

I would put Floyd at 10, his peripherals look good and he should keep it up next season, could even improve given no Jermaine Dye in RF etc. etc.

by Ha_v_oc on Sep 27, 2009 1:38 AM EDT reply actions  

OK so your rankings are more related to Fantasy baseball and not top 10 pitchers in AL…I got it. – But if you look at CC’s stats vs AL East – 8-4 – 11-1 in the 2nd half 2.36 ERA WHIP 1.04, K/BB 4.13 – Felix in 2H 8-2 2.44 ERA WHIP 1.14 K/BB 2.87

by robg62 on Sep 27, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I Guess

you missed the header where it says “Fantasy baseball…”

by Ha_v_oc on Sep 28, 2009 12:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Really? I did not know this is all we could discuss on this site…only related to Fantasy baseball – so limited?

by robg62 on Sep 28, 2009 9:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Oh..

we can discuss everything I guess via comments, but if you’re going to question the authors fantasy rankings it should be based on fantasy production

by Ha_v_oc on Sep 28, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

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