Fantasy Baseball: NL Hidden Power Sources for 2010

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 22, 2009 1:24 PM EDT in Baseball

Fantasy/roto owners looking for cheap power before their drafts should look at hitters who hit alot of doubles the previous season. Many believe that true power hitters will turn those doubles into homers the next season.

Here's a look at the top doubles hitters in the NL since the All-Star break:

Player	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	KO	BA	OBP	SLG
Murphy, Daniel LF NYM	240	28	69	26	6	35	11	35	0.288	0.316	0.496
Ethier, Andre RF LA	243	40	79	24	13	45	24	41	0.325	0.402	0.601
Pujols, Albert 1B STL	227	48	72	21	15	43	38	25	0.317	0.425	0.608
Lee, Derrek 1B CHC	231	48	78	20	17	51	38	47	0.338	0.432	0.662
Headley, Chase LF SD	224	31	69	19	4	29	28	45	0.308	0.382	0.455
Sandoval, Pablo 1B SF	227	28	70	19	7	25	20	33	0.308	0.364	0.485
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI	274	40	74	19	12	37	13	24	0.27	0.301	0.493
Holliday, Matt LF STL	237	50	86	19	16	61	22	39	0.363	0.416	0.662
Francoeur, Jeff RF NYM	244	31	75	18	7	32	10	39	0.307	0.336	0.484
Montero, Miguel C ARI	203	31	64	18	9	35	16	39	0.315	0.364	0.537

I have already written about a couple guys on this list-Pablo Sandoval and Miguel Montero. But the leader in doubles Daniel Murphy is intriguing. Murphy hit 11 HRs in 2008 in 450+ ABs, and was drafted in many leagues thi season with the thought that he could go 20-80-.300 in that Mets lineup, but he has disappointed many owners this season. Murphy has had a very good second half of the season, and I wonder if he can turn some of those doubles into HRs in 2010.

The other guy on this list that stands out is the Padres Chase Headley. He has had a very fine second half as well, with 19 doubles to go with his 4 HRs and .308 average. He could be a cheap source of power heading into 2010 drafts. He has 12 HRs this season after hitting 9 HRs in 2008, so his power is trending up. Headley's 45/28 K/BB ratio and .382 OBP says he has a good eye at the plate, and could lead to 20+ HRs in 2010.

The Diamondbacks Miguel Montero probably won't be a hidden source of power, but his .537 slugging percentage tells me that his power may be here to stay, especially playing in Bank One Ballpark.

Poll

Whcih hitter will have the bigger breakout power season in 2010?

Murphy

13 votes

Headley

17 votes

Sandoval

41 votes

Montero

12 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Any insight into what the hittracker data on Murphy and Headley means?

Here is Murphy’s: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_715&type=hitter
Here is Headley’s: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_174&type=hitter

Murphy averaged 395 ft for his HR. Throwing out his lowest and highest distance, he’s got a range of 380-402 for distance. Four of his HR at Citi were “Just Enough”. The other two HR at Citi were true HR. 4 of his HR away from Citi were true HR with one “Just Enough”. This shows that he does have some power, especially with the walls at Citi really far out. Does this show that with a little more oomph he’ll be turning those doubles at Citi into HR? I’m not sure, since he only has one “lucky” HR away, that suggests he either hits it really hard, or it just won’t be clearing any walls. So is he just a doubles hitter? Perhaps.

Now looking at Headley. Average distance of 405. Throw out his low and high HR, and he has a range of 377-429. At Petco he’s had 4 true HR and 3 just enough/lucky HR. Away, he’s got 3 true HR and 2 lucky HR. I think with his larger range, and his higher average distance he has a great chance of breaking out next year with a higher HR total.

It’s interesting that these are two guys who play in the worst hitter’s parks in the league. When we look at the schedules next year, what percentage of the season would at least one of these guys be playing away from home (or against a bad pitcher?) it might be worth it to platoon these guys for hitting away from Petco/Citi.

Thoughts?

by kellemonster on Sep 22, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions