Fantasy Baseball: NL Closers Peripheral Stats

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 20, 2009 9:45 AM EDT in Baseball Comment 1 comment

After posting the volatility of NL closers article, I decided to take a look at the peripheral stats for all NL closer with at least 5 saves. Lets take a look:

Player	S	BS	S%	Kd9	BBd9	K/BB	HRA	HR/9	INN	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Qualls, Chad RP ARI	24	5	0.828	7.8	1.21	6.44	5	0.9	52	3.63	1.15	0.256
Street, Huston RP COL	33	1	0.971	10	1.81	5.64	6	1	55	2.96	0.91	0.196
Soriano, Rafael RP ATL	24	4	0.857	12	2.94	4	5	0.7	67	2.67	1.01	0.191
Broxton, Jonathan RP LA	35	5	0.875	14	3.44	3.96	4	0.5	71	2.42	0.95	0.162
Hoffman, Trevor RP MIL	34	3	0.919	8.1	2.06	3.91	2	0.4	48	1.88	0.92	0.193
Madson, Ryan RP PHI	8	6	0.571	8.8	2.66	3.29	7	0.9	71	3.3	1.24	0.25
Bell, Heath RP SD	37	5	0.881	9.9	3.14	3.14	3	0.4	63	2.86	1.11	0.21
Valverde, Jose RP HOU	23	4	0.852	9.9	3.19	3.12	5	0.9	48	1.88	1.02	0.189
Wilson, Brian RP SF	34	6	0.85	9.7	3.31	2.92	2	0.3	68	2.65	1.21	0.226
Gonzalez, Mike RP ATL	10	7	0.588	11	4.15	2.63	7	0.9	69	2.6	1.23	0.212
Hawkins, LaTroy RP HOU	11	4	0.733	6.5	2.47	2.62	7	1.1	58	2.31	1.2	0.25
Capps, Matt RP PIT	25	5	0.833	7.3	2.86	2.56	10	1.8	50	5.9	1.67	0.327
Nunez, Leo RP FLA	23	6	0.793	8.2	3.23	2.53	13	1.8	64	4.08	1.19	0.224
Sherrill, George RP LA	21	4	0.84	7.9	3.16	2.5	4	0.6	63	1.72	1.13	0.211
Gregg, Kevin RP CHC	23	6	0.793	9.1	3.74	2.43	13	1.7	67	4.68	1.29	0.23
Gutierrez, Juan SP ARI	6	1	0.857	8.5	4.09	2.07	2	0.3	66	3.95	1.39	0.249
Franklin, Ryan RP STL	37	4	0.902	6.3	3.16	2	2	0.3	57	1.89	1.11	0.206
Morales, Franklin SP COL	6	1	0.857	9	4.5	2	4	1	36	3	1.28	0.214
Cordero, Francisco RP CIN	38	4	0.905	7.8	4.04	1.93	2	0.3	65	2.37	1.31	0.241
Rodriguez, Francisco J. RP NYM	31	6	0.838	9.5	4.97	1.92	6	0.9	63	3.13	1.26	0.194
Lidge, Brad RP PHI	30	10	0.75	9.4	5.37	1.75	11	1.8	54	7.21	1.81	0.3
Troncoso, Ramon RP LA	5	1	0.833	6	3.43	1.73	3	0.3	79	2.75	1.39	0.269
Lindstrom, Matt RP FLA	14	2	0.875	7.2	4.66	1.54	5	1	46	5.83	1.64	0.28
Marmol, Carlos RP CHC	13	4	0.765	11	8.13	1.37	1	0.1	69	3.41	1.46	0.163
MacDougal, Mike RP WAS	16	1	0.941	5.4	6.47	0.83	3	0.6	49	3.88	1.62	0.251

I sorted this list by K/BB and included Save percentage (S%), HR/9, ERA, WHIP and Batting Average Against (BAA). I am not surprised to see Francisco Rodriguez in the tier with Brad Lidge, Kevin Gregg, Matt Lidstrom and Carlos Marmol. I would be very wary of K-Rod going into 2010 drafts.

I would also be short Leo Nunez, Matt Capps and Carlos Marmol going into 2010. I would be looking to acquire the setup men for the Marlins, Pirates and Cubs going into 2010 drafts.

Mike McDougal will have to do a 180 to hold off 2009 draft pick Drew Storen in my opinion. If Storen doesn't make the Nationals roster on Opening Day, I would bid on him late in auction drafts, and draft him late in snake drafts.

Poll

Will Drew Storen be the Nationals closer on Opening Day 2010?

Yes, McDougal's peripheral stats are horrible.

17 votes

No, the Nats will bring him on slowly.

16 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I think you could increase the value of this list by adding a few things.

1. Switch from HR/9 to HR/FB, show the FB% as well. HR/FB normalizes at 9-11%
2. Show both FIP and xFIP based on a normalized HR/FB rate.
3. Show BABIP as well as career BABIP rather than BAA. While BABIP is mostly luck for pitchers, elite pitchers, like many closers, can sustain a depressed BABIP, so we want to see how lucky they’ve been this year vs. their career.
4. More important than S% would be LOB% (Strand rate) which tells you how lucky they’ve been with keeping any runners from scoring.

Then, after adding all those stats, it’s time to head over to fangraphs and see if the K/9 and BB/9 stats are in line with career numbers. If they are not, we need to look at both the Swing Discipline stats and the pitch f/x data to see if there is any evidence that such a change is sustainable long term.

by kellemonster on Sep 20, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs