Fantasy Baseball: Scarcity in NL Outfielders in 2010??

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 10, 2009 9:33 AM EDT in Baseball

A reader recently commented that the NL outfielder is to dep to select an outfielder like Matt Kemp with the number 1 pick. He went on to say that he would prefer to take Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez with his first pick, then take an OFer like Matt Holliday with his 2nd pick. I am not so sure I agree. I think the NL outfield is more scarce than people think. Here's a list of the top 20 NL outfielders based on values assigned by CBS Sportsline:

Player	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Kemp, Matt CF LA	525	84	160	23	89	47	123	31	0.305	0.361	0.501
Braun, Ryan J. LF MIL	538	97	166	28	95	51	100	14	0.309	0.379	0.547
Holliday, Matt LF STL	507	85	160	23	96	63	84	14	0.316	0.395	0.533
Bourn, Michael CF HOU	517	87	152	3	33	59	113	52	0.294	0.368	0.402
Morgan, Nyjer LF WAS	469	74	144	3	39	40	74	42	0.307	0.369	0.388
Upton, Justin RF ARI	448	76	136	23	74	50	116	19	0.304	0.374	0.545
Werth, Jayson RF PHI	488	86	132	33	84	78	134	13	0.271	0.374	0.531
Victorino, Shane CF PHI	537	91	159	9	55	52	63	23	0.296	0.362	0.449
Ethier, Andre RF LA	529	80	149	28	94	60	100	6	0.282	0.364	0.526
Lee, Carlos N. LF HOU	523	59	160	23	88	38	45	4	0.306	0.352	0.495
Dunn, Adam LF WAS	476	74	134	35	94	102	156	0	0.282	0.411	0.557
Pence, Hunter RF HOU	500	69	143	23	68	51	88	14	0.286	0.351	0.486
Ibanez, Raul LF PHI	428	78	120	30	83	43	104	4	0.28	0.349	0.572
Pierre, Juan LF LA	337	53	107	0	29	25	24	25	0.318	0.377	0.395
Hawpe, Brad RF COL	450	73	130	19	76	66	126	1	0.289	0.381	0.513
McLouth, Nate CF ATL	411	68	107	17	59	53	79	17	0.26	0.35	0.45
Ludwick, Ryan RF STL	420	57	115	20	87	35	88	4	0.274	0.336	0.467
Diaz, Matt LF ATL	312	50	101	10	45	28	73	9	0.324	0.394	0.497
Ross, Cody CF FLA	499	69	133	21	79	34	107	4	0.267	0.322	0.467
Willingham, Josh LF WAS	360	64	101	22	59	52	81	3	0.281	0.387	0.542

Now this isn't my top 20 NL outfielders for 2010. But how many of these outfielders would you select in the first few rounds? I think that there is more depth at 1B in the NL than in the outfield with Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Pablo Sandoval and Joey Votto.

Who would you rather have with your first two picks: Pujols/Holliday or Kemp/AGonz??

Poll

Who would you rather have with your first two picks: Pujols/Holliday or Kemp/AGonz??

Pujols/Holliday

94 votes

Kemp/AGonz

15 votes

109 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Me again...

I was that reader, and I’ll stand by my statement (which I guess isn’t physically possible unless I print it out & pin it to the wall next to me, but I digress). I am convinced Pujols will be the smartest #1 overall in an NL league next season, but concede that 1B looks to be deeper than it has been in years. Still, I would argue that while Kemp is a multi-tool machine, he doesn’t even warrant top-5 consideration; maybe not even top-10…yet. Factoring in scarcity (which I obviously do), I think the first 20 picks (getting me to the Pujols/Holliday combo) in a 10-team NL-only league could easily look like this next year:

1) Pujols
2) Han Ram
3) Utley
4) Lincecum
5) D Wright
6) Reyes — he will be back, and can’t be counted out (remember “Utley-gate” this year?)
7) Braun (my #1 OF in the NL)
8) Johan
9) Upton (my #2 OF, barely ahead of Kemp in my mind)
10) Kemp
11) Fielder
12) Howard
13) M Reynolds
14) Rollins
15) B Phillips
16) D Haren
17) Tulo
18) Cliff Lee (will he be in the NL?)
19) A Gonzalez
20) Holliday

So these 10 teams have 1-2 punches of:
Team 1) Pujols / Holliday (a St Louis fan, to be sure)
Team 2) Han Ram / A Gonz
Tm 3) Utley / Lee (must be a Phillies fan)
Tm 4) Lincecum / Tulo
Tm 5) Wright / Haren
Tm 6) Reyes / Phillips (a nice middle infield locked up early)
Tm 7) Braun / Rollins
Tm 8) Johan / Reynolds
Tm 9) Upton / Howard (maybe my favorite 1-2 of the bunch)
Tm 10) Kemp / Fielder

Everybody has a different strategy, which is what makes this fun…and we can nitpick each other’s ideas, but it’s all good in the end. Clearly many of these 20 have their question marks (how strong is Reyes? can Reynolds come close to his 09 breakout?) but I think this makes sense for pretty much every manager in this 10-teamhypothetical.

Play Ball!

PS – since I know you’re wondering, my #21 is Brian McCann…let the run on catchers begin! (oh, wait, there’s only one good one left in the NL)

Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.

by Giants_Junkie on Sep 10, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah Pujols is just so much better than the rest of the league and Hanley Ramirez is still leaps and bounds better then other SSs.

You just can’t draft Kemp before Pujols or Hanley

by cfred on Sep 14, 2009 4:15 PM EDT reply actions

I see

Kemp hitting more HRs next season…..30ish. do you still draft Hanley before Kemp?
Plus, Hanley won’t hit .350 next season imo.. Not sure Hanley is leaps and bounds better than Tulo, who I was very wrong on this season.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 14, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

the Mets trio

I don’t see how anyone would draft Wright, Reyes or Johan in the first round next season….Wright’s drop in power moves him to the 2nd round or lower, Reyes is a risk in my opinion-so you are gambling drafting him in the 1st round. Plus, all of his value is his speed…and we don’t know how much he will run in 2010. Johan coming off elbow surgery is not a 1st rounder for me.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Sep 14, 2009 11:20 PM EDT reply actions