Fantasy Baseball: What Pitching Stat Leads To Fantasy Success?

Coors is not a pitchers park. Do you know why all those Rockies pitchers are on that list? It’s their ground ball rate. The Rockies have purposefully remade their rotation into an extreme ground ball pitching staff. Why? Because the less fly balls means less chance for a HR, which is especially important at Coors.

HR/9 is a stat that combines luck and skill. Pitchers can control their ground ball and fly ball rates. What they have little control over is their HR per Fly Ball. This normalizes around 9-10%.

I will say it again. HOME RUNS PER FLY BALL IS MOSTLY LUCK!!! I thought that this was one of the most fundamental truths of predicting pitching. It is what FIPS is mostly based off of.

Am I taking crazy pills? Was this post a joke? Yes, Pineiro has reinvented himself as a ground ball pitcher with a great sinker. Yes, he’s a valuable commodity with his minuscule walk rate. But he has a 4.8% HR/FB ratio. This should be ~9-10%. His current FIP is 3.05, his xFIP (based on a normalized HR/FB ratio) is 3.65.

That is just an example. If you normalize all those other pitchers, I’m sure you would get the same result.

Instead, let’s look at GB% and FB%. But keep in mind that unless one has amazing control or a high strike out rate, that those with a high GB% will end up with a lower ERA but a higher WHIP than other pitchers.

Furthermore, the two options for the poll make no sense. You leave out the best option: using K/BB AND HR/FB ratio.

You are misinterpreting Shandler. What he is saying is that no matter what else, never roster a pitcher that you don’t think will have a K/BB ratio less than 2.2.

That doesn’t mean that every pitcher who has that ratio is rosterable or that this is the end of your analysis.

Instead, you next turn to a combination of K/9, BB/9, GB/FB, and maybe whether they have demonstrated multiple years of consistently keeping their BABIP below or above average. The same is probably true for HR/FB rate, but even less so than BABIP. Finally, with differences in team defense starting to show up, I’m looking at what kind of defense they have behind them as well as what kind of park.

Here’s how it works: If someone has a high GB%, then I’m willing to allow them to only have an ~ 5 K/9 rate, but I also want them to have a lower than normal BB/9 rate. If the pitcher has a high FB%, then I want a pitcher with a greater than 7 K/9 rate for two reasons. 1. They need the ability to get out of jams since they are not going to be inducing many double plays. 2. If their ERA is going to be higher, then if Ks are a fantasy category, I need them to contribute there.

Then, if they are a GB pitcher, I look to see what their infield defense looks like. If they are a FB pitcher, I want to know whether they play in a band box or a pitcher’s park and I want to know what their OF defense is like.

I take the K/BB every time…..power pitchers tend to have longer careers (Check Bill James)… because when they lose a little something they can still get you out with a 90mph fastball… but a guy who drops from 90mph to 85 mph is pitching batting practice.

I don’t mind a guy giving up 20 homers if there’s nobody on base (aka the BB)

Now this is a VERY broad generalization and I know you can name people who don’t follow that rule.

But if it’s fantasy baseball I want the strikeouts… and if it’s real baseball…. home runs come from mistakes….weather… the batters skill etc etc to many things can go wrong. But a guy with great control and strike out numbers can dominate. In the playoffs those are the guys you fear.