MLB Trade Rumors: Trading Clay Buchholz

Boston have claimed that Buchholz is untouchable. Why shouldn't he be? He's a potential ace who's dominating AAA AND he's a cost-effective starter for 5+ years. Now since prospects are baseball's most valuable commodity, getting a team to give up their best prospect will require giving up a top prospect. Same risk, same upside, same cost-effectiveness. A true apple for an apple.

I think the BoSox will move him to fill their biggest longstanding need - a young power bat & future star for the infield. As evidenced by the Texeria and A-Ros dealings of the past few years, the BoSox are not sold on the idea of bidding against a determined Yankees team. The draft will take a while, so trade makes the most sense.

Now there are more than a few options here. The Sox could go after Cards prospect Brett Wallace as a 1B, but he's not different enough from Lars Anderson. Royalsprospect Moustakis and ChiSox prospect Gordon Beckham would also fit in Boston, but the value for the other team isn't quite enough. No other prospects seem worth the value.

I think the best option is Texas Prospect Justin Smoak for Buchholz 

For Texas:  Some Texas fans think Smoak should be untouchable, but Texas already has a potent lineup that will be top 5 in MLB for the next 3-5 years without Smoak. However, they need pitching help badly. Derek Holland isn't ready for the majors (at least as a starter) and Padilla's a back of the rotation guy - not a #2 starter.

In Buchholz, they get a pitcher ready for the Majors (I personally he think he'd come in as their #3 starter, behind Milwood and Feldman), who will develop on the same timetable as the rest of their young pitching talent. Slotting him in the rotation also lets them move Holland into a long relief spot, where he can develop while Texas makes a playoff run. Most importantly, Clay Buchholz is a Texas native in whom Nolan Ryan has expressed strong interest.  Texas may love Smoak, but, after losing the AL West to Angels pitching for so long, they have to wise up.

If Texas is unwilling to part with Smoak, we can also considering throwing in an extra reliever (not Bard or Bowden). Their bullpen is too shaky for a legitimate playoff run against the Angels and Mariners. Saito gives them someone with closing & playoff experience. Ramon Ramirez gives them a true fireballer with closer potential. Masterson gives them a flexible swingman.

For Boston:  Sox fans will scoff that the cost is too high. Some might complain that Buchholz is ready now, but Smoak is a year behind and riskier. Some might even argue that we don't need a 1st baseman, we need a SS. I disagree - Smoak is the perfect fit.  We already have good SSs in Jed Lowrieand Nick Green. Both project well to hit for average and be decent base stealers. A high OBP SS works great as long as we have power on both of the corners, so let's accept a Lowrie/Green SS and move on.

It's also not worth it to get an above average 3B for the short term. Mike Lowell is back. Though he's 35, Boston has shown it has enough depth to accommodate for that. Plus, if both Lowell and Youk go down, we can trade for a passable 3B. Lowell can be the starter for this year and the next, but he'll get a decent amount of rest. That creates the perfect opportunity to let Smoak play off the bench and develop into a 1st rate hitter. Once he's ready, Youk can move to 3B and Boston gets two young power corner hitters + maybe Lars Anderson for the DH spot.