Fantasy Football Bust: RB DeAngelo Williams

by Skeller on Jul 17, 2009 8:00 AM EDT in Football

DeAngelo Williams had a season to remember in 2008. With 1515 rushing yards and a league-leading 18 rushing TDs, Williams powered many fantasy teams to championships last season. More amazingly, he did it in only 273 carries, which works out to a whopping 5.5 yds per carry average. Based on those numbers, DeAngelo Williams is likely to be drafted as a Top 5 fantasy running back.

Don't do it. Williams had an amazing season but it was a crazy, improbable, fluke of a season. He broke off 50+ yd touchdown runs. He caught defenses unaware. His team ran the ball a huge amount. None of those things are going to happen this season.

Williams is not going to average 5.5 yds per carry; there's no way any back can sustain that rate, especially not DeAngelo Williams. If you project him to have a reasonably-good 4.1 yds per carry average - with the same number of carries - it works out to 1,119 yds. A good season, but not a Top 5 season. In my rankings, not even a Top 10 season.

Next, he's not going to catch teams unaware again. Between Williams and teammate Jonathan (836 yds, 10 TD) Stewart, the entire NFL knows that the Panthers are running the ball. Teams will be focused on stopping them this season. Since there isn't a lot of fear when it comes to QB Jake Delhomme, teams will be very, very focused on stopping the run. They're likely be pretty good at stopping the run too.

Finally, the Panthers are going to have throw the ball more. Just as defenses know the Panthers will run and so will focus on stopping it, the Panthers know defenses will focus on stopping it and so will throw more. With Stewart ready to rumble, Carolina will rely less on Williams and more on Delhomme.

DeAngelo Williams should have a good season and he'll be a good fantasy RB. What he won't have is 1300 rushing yards or double digit TDs. Considering all the hype around him, I consider him a bust candidate this season.

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Comments

Mostly nonsense on stilts

“Williams is not going to average 5.5 yds per carry”

This is almost certainly true, but probably not for the reasons you state. The Panthers’ schedule features a number of good 3-4 Ds; that’s the #1 reason the Panther run game won’t be as explosive.

Williams averaged 5.0 YPC in limited action in 2008. A high average isn’t much of a surprise.

Thinking a John Fox team caught the league by surprise with its desire to run the ball? Utter nonsense. Fox doesn’t do unpredictable.

“Since there isn’t a lot of fear when it comes to QB Jake Delhomme”

Right. Because no one ever loses to a team with a QB with a career 85 PR and 60% completion rate. And it’s not like he’s led a team to the Super Bowl or anything.

And the biggest reason Williams had a big year last year doesn’t even appear in your review. Two words: Steve. Smith. He’s pretty good. If you aren’t doubling him (and you don’t have Nnamdi Asomugha), you will get burned. If you’re doubling him, you’re not going to be able to put an extra man in the box.

The two big questions with Williams are: (1) how much is Stewart going to cut into his playing time and especially goal line carries, and (2) how stupid are the Panther coaches going to be in the play calling? No, he’s probably not worth a top 5 pick because of the schedule (two of three playoff games on the road against the Pats and the Giants? Ouch.), but he’s pretty easily a top 10.

by nuke187 on Jul 17, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

I like the nonsense on stilts comment

I might steal that. :-) And I agree with the schedule point..brutal.

But teams aren’t going to fear Carolina’s passing offense. I think it’s pretty clear that the passing game is the lesser of two evils. Sure, Steve Smith will break for some big plays, but teams can deal with that. Giving up long, time-chewing rushing-led drives won’t do. I think opposing defenses focus on Williams and Stewart.

Good point though, maybe I need to value Steve Smith more highly.

by Skeller on Jul 17, 2009 10:16 PM EDT reply actions