HR/F With BABIP 2004-09: Adrian Gonzalez

by faketeams on Jun 6, 2009 12:00 PM EDT in Baseball

Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres has hit HRs like no one expected given his home ballpark. The key stat is an outrageous 40.1% HR-to-Flyball rate. Over the previous five seasons, the highest HR/F was Ryan Howard's 2006 38.3%. He hit 56 HRs that season.

I don't know if Gonzalez can keep up his HR/F rate or something north of 30% given just five players had accomplished a 30+% HR/F in the 2004 to 2008 time frame (Howard, Jack Cust twice, Barry Bonds and Travis Hafner). I can see that AGonz's current BABIP of .258 would rank as the worst amongst the Top 100 HR/F though.

Unrelated to Gonzalez, I'd like to note that the highest HR/F rates generally appear to be flukes. There are just a few players who consistently maintain these elite rates, so behave accordingly.

FWIW, I think we should consider HR/F a durable skill if it occurs in back-to-back seasons including 2009. Welcome to the statisitical significance of a sample size of two Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez!

Slugger	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Adam Dunn
HR/F	0.235	0.209	0.216	0.225		0.244
BA/BIP	0.321	0.279	0.276	0.305		0.292
Adam Jones
HR/F						0.22
BA/BIP						0.386
Adam LaRoche
HR/F			0.216
BA/BIP			0.319
Adrian Beltre
HR/F	0.224
BA/BIP	0.325
Adrian Gonzalez
HR/F					0.23	0.401
BA/BIP					0.308	0.258
Albert Pujols
HR/F	0.213	0.216	0.225		0.22	0.241
BA/BIP	0.298	0.316	0.292		0.34	0.305
Alex Rodriguez
HR/F		0.25	0.202	0.267	0.214
BA/BIP		0.347	0.326	0.309	0.328
Alfonso Soriano
HR/F			0.194
BA/BIP			0.3
Andruw Jones
HR/F		0.255	0.224
BA/BIP		0.24	0.264
B.J. Upton
HR/F				0.195
BA/BIP				0.393
Barry Bonds
HR/F	0.328
BA/BIP	0.31
Brandon Inge
HR/F						0.209
BA/BIP						0.325
Carlos Beltran
HR/F			0.22
BA/BIP			0.263
Carlos Delgado
HR/F	0.196	0.236	0.238		0.243
BA/BIP	0.283	0.332	0.269		0.279
Carlos Pena
HR/F	0.193			0.287		0.23
BA/BIP	0.284			0.297		0.25
Chipper Jones
HR/F	0.205
BA/BIP	0.246
Chris Davis
HR/F						0.24
BA/BIP						0.271
Craig A Wilson
HR/F	0.216
BA/BIP	0.325
David Ortiz
HR/F	0.207	0.222	0.266
BA/BIP	0.322	0.303	0.27
Derrek Lee
HR/F		0.219
BA/BIP		0.343
Evan Longoria
HR/F					0.194	0.2
BA/BIP					0.309	0.369
Hanley Ramirez
HR/F					0.2
BA/BIP					0.329
J.D. Drew
HR/F	0.203
BA/BIP	0.34
Jack Cust
HR/F				0.337	0.31
BA/BIP				0.355	0.306
Jacque Jones
HR/F	0.193	0.226	0.241
BA/BIP	0.282	0.279	0.319
Jason Bay
HR/F			0.196			0.234
BA/BIP			0.33			0.295
Jason Giambi
HR/F		0.213	0.2
BA/BIP		0.292	0.245
Jason Varitek
HR/F		0.205
BA/BIP		0.329
Jermaine Dye
HR/F			0.233			0.205
BA/BIP			0.328			0.29
Jhonny Peralta
HR/F		0.196
BA/BIP		0.346
Jim Edmonds
HR/F	0.277	0.2
BA/BIP	0.344	0.31
Jim Thome
HR/F	0.226		0.255	0.272	0.199	0.219
BA/BIP	0.298		0.321	0.316	0.273	0.3
Justin Upton
HR/F						0.195
BA/BIP						0.397
Justin Morneau
HR/F						0.211
BA/BIP						0.354
Kevin Youkilis
HR/F						0.202
BA/BIP						0.432
Lance Berkman
HR/F			0.24	0.204
BA/BIP			0.316	0.3
Manny Ramirez
HR/F	0.232	0.279	0.239
BA/BIP	0.324	0.295	0.341
Mark Reynolds
HR/F						0.248
BA/BIP						0.352
Mark Teixeira
HR/F	0.199	0.193				0.207
BA/BIP	0.293	0.315				0.273
Michael Cuddyer
HR/F						0.211
BA/BIP						0.302
Miguel Cabrera
HR/F	0.219	0.195
BA/BIP	0.335	0.358
Mike Napoli
HR/F						0.208
BA/BIP						0.306
Mike Jacobs
HR/F					0.194
BA/BIP					0.26
Milton Bradley
HR/F					0.203
BA/BIP					0.388
Nelson Cruz
HR/F						0.237
BA/BIP						0.313
Prince Fielder
HR/F				0.239		0.204
BA/BIP				0.283		0.32
Raul Ibanez
HR/F						0.246
BA/BIP						0.318
Richie Sexson
HR/F		0.25	0.2
BA/BIP		0.304	0.3
Russell Branyan
HR/F						0.219
BA/BIP						0.39
Ryan Braun
HR/F						0.206
BA/BIP						0.357
Ryan Howard
HR/F			0.383	0.284	0.292	0.253
BA/BIP			0.356	0.328	0.285	0.302
Ryan Ludwick
HR/F					0.212
BA/BIP					0.342
Sammy Sosa
HR/F	0.245
BA/BIP	0.275
Torii Hunter
HR/F						0.219
BA/BIP						0.324
Travis Hafner
HR/F		0.268	0.307
BA/BIP		0.344	0.323
Vladimir Guerrero
HR/F	0.198
BA/BIP	0.329