One Man Debate: QB Peyton Manning

by Skeller on Jun 22, 2009 8:00 AM EDT in Football

Peyton Manning is a very interesting fantasy player this year. A lot of people will draft him on his long time reputation as the best QB in fantasy football, but how long can he live up to that reputation? A lot of people – especially people who comment on Patriots blogs – think last season was the beginning of the end for Manning and the Colts. Which one is it? I’m going to debate myself and try to find out. This is something I do all the time in my head while I’m working on my draft rankings, but this year I’m going to do it out in writing. In public. Which is going to be even more schizophrenic than it sounds.

PRO: Manning is the #1 QB in fantasy football this year. You heard me, Numero Uno. Reggie Wayne is one of the great WRs in the league. Dallas Clark is probably the best TE in the league. Maybe you’ve heard of Joseph Addai? He’s pretty good. Manning has all the weapons he needs to put up big numbers again.

CON: Forget it. Manning is easily behind Drew Brees AND Tom Brady in the QB rankings. In fact, you might be able to put Rivers or Warner ahead of him too.

PRO: Brees? You mean you’re going to count on Lance Moore and Jeremy Shockey? Ha! Warner is old, Rivers can actually SEE Tomlinson visibly age and Brady is coming off a knee injury and doesn’t have a starting RB. Neither one of those guys have the complete offensive tools that Manning has.

CON: Tools? Marvin Harrison left town. Dominic Rhodes was their leading rusher and HE left town. Who’s going to make up those yards? A rookie? Give me a break.

PRO: Yeah, a rookie. RB Donald Brown will be a force in the backfield and WR Anthony Gonzalez has been waiting for his big break. 664 receiving yards last year and this is his 3^rd year. That means breakout. That means it’s going to be showtime for AGonz this season. Man, AGonz is a terrible nickname, isn’t it?

CON: Wasn’t he one of the Ghostbusters? Anyway, you could see last year that the Indy offense wasn’t clicking. They struggled against younger teams. They lost to Green Bay and Jacksonville. Teams don’t fear them anymore. There are very few "guaranteed" wins on their schedule this year. I’m not sure they even get to 10 wins again.

PRO: What?! The schedule is one of the arguments FOR Manning. Since the Colts didn’t win the division, they don’t have to play a first place schedule. They miss out on games against division winners Carolina, NY Giants, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and San Diego.

CON: Yeah, but they do have to play second place teams Baltimore, New England and Denver. Thank you wild card! Those games aren’t going to be easy. And Manning is getting all whiny about losing assistant coaches. He’ll be distracted.

PRO: While Brady lost his offensive coordinator too. And talk about being distracted – Brady spent an entire off-season cavorting around Brazil with a supermodel. Remember in high school when Coach said "No screwing around the night before the big game"? The equivalent here is "No screwing around for 8 months non-stop before the big season".

CON: That’s your Pro-Manning argument? Brady has had too much tail?!

PRO: Hey, if you spent all that time being nursed back to health by Giselle, would you wake up and say "Hooray! Time to do wind sprints until I puke!" Brady won’t be the same. Tiger wasn’t the same after HE married a supermodel, was he? That stuff messes you up man.

CON: I wish I had that problem. Still, I’m not buying it. Manning is a very good fantasy quarterback, but not one of the best. If you draft him on reputation, you’ll be disappointed.

PRO: I wouldn’t draft him in the first round, but if he slips into the late 2^nd or early 3^rd round, he’ll provide a huge return on that investment. At that draft position, he’s pretty much a sleeper. You have to take him there instead of risking a "sophomore slump" with Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan.

CON: I thought too much "sleeping" was one of the problems with Brady?

PRO: I don’t think he slept much.

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Peyton won the MVP on a knee that was cut open twice over the summer, the 2nd time just a month before the opener.

No training camp, no preseason. Just out there week 1.

A couple other points. The Colts lost Marvin Harrison week 5 of 2007 when Addai was tackled into his legs. That guy wearing 88 for the 1 1/2 years since wasn’t the same guy, not even close.

I’ve just been writing on Anthony Gonzalez’s amazing efficiency over the last week, he caught 72% of the passes thrown to him over the last two years (behind only Wes Wekler and Ike Hilliard) while running routes that are as deep or deeper than average (13ish YPR for the last two years, Welker and Hilliard’s was just 10.5). He’s going to be good now that he’s being bumped up to a full time player and the #3 target (behind Wayne and Clark).

Peyton didn’t lose his offensive coordinator. After his “whining” the organization finally let everyone know what was going on with the situation. Moore and Mudd are returning in pretty much the exact same roles they had before, just with different (consultant) titles.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 22, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions

and dropping a game to Jacksonville isn't much of a sign

during their 6 straight 12+ win seasons Indy split with the Jags in 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2008. 8-4 against Jax over their streak. The Jags always get up for games against Indy.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 22, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Pats fan here

wow… that was impartial and even handed :)

As a fantasy football QB…. yes I would take Manning ahead of Brady based solely on health…. but on the field in the playoffs…. SORRY I still take Brady…. you take two “miracle passes” away from the two Manning brothers and you lose two World Championships…..

That being said… you could say that about most Superbowl winning QB’s… Brady’s “tuck” play… Bradshaw’s immaculate reception"…. etc. But having watched the Pats play the Colts over the years…. I still put my money on Brady in the playoffs.

Even in the game Manning threw the pass to knock the Pats out of the playoffs….. when he thought the game was lost… he has his head buried between his knees and wasn’t even looking at the field….. their fearless leader looked like his puppy had died.

Manning is great QB… on and off the field (not to mention he does the best commercials by far)…. he is deservedly a Hall of Fame QB. But of the game is on the line… my money is on a healthy (and that remains to be seen) Tom Brady.

Now post season success has very little to do with fantasy football….. so let me get back on topic.

Brady not having a running game may not be a bad thing…… he didn’t have much of a running game when he threw for 50+ TD’s…… his running game is the 6 yard pass…. and he can rack up numbers in a hurry.

It all comes down to health… and what the effects of the missed year have on Brady… and lord knows I wish his personal life wasn’t so exciting (that may be jealousy talking)

OK… fire away… call me stupid… but it’s my opinion… I am not a “home town fan”…. i’m trying to be a little more objective than the article.

by Bob_24798 on Jun 22, 2009 9:19 PM EDT reply actions

All good points

And that comment had much much less venom than the usual Pats fan comment :-)

I won’t fire away at you, those are good points. If I had the ball on my own 20 with 1:30 to go, I might want Brady in there too.

But as far as fantasy value in 2009 goes, I think I give the advantage to Manning. The Pats running game is probably the worst it’s been in the Belichick era. The Pats have had success like that before, but you have to wonder how far they can go. And Brady’s knee has to be worth some concern. If we’re talking about spending your 1st round draft pick, I think the risk on Brady is just a bit too high.

You’re right about his personal life though. Damn.

by Skeller on Jun 22, 2009 11:43 PM EDT reply actions