Sources of AVG Upside? High Contact Rates and Line Drive Percentages

With everyday players garnering more than 200 ABs this season, the ability to ferret out possible buy low players for batting average upside becomes more challenging as the high ABs make it harder to determine who has shaken-off a poor start and returned to their expected levels of production. This is where the data mining of peripherals statistics becomes helpful.

Using Batting Average, Contact Rate and Line Drive Percentage, my intuition tells me those players with a high contact rate and good LD% should have a good AVG. If they do not, then there exists the possibility of a positve return as the AVG catches up with the peripherals.

Normally, I take a list like this and discard the players I don't believe make a difference. It is the players that have a solid track record who catch my eye. In this case, just 29 players had an AVG under .250, a contact rate of 85% or more and a LD% of 15% or higher. So I left the list unaltered.

Is my intuition regarding the relationship between AVG, contact rate and LD% correct?




Last Tm BA Contact Rate LD%
Brian Schneider NYN 0.205 0.9744 0.179
Yuniesky Betancourt SEA 0.237 0.9227 0.173
Shane M Robinson STL 0.24 0.92 0.167
Orlando Cabrera OAK 0.232 0.912 0.197
Augie Ojeda ARI 0.237 0.8983 0.19
Jimmy Rollins PHI 0.217 0.8951 0.171
Ramon Hernandez CIN 0.248 0.8861 0.188
Jose C Lopez SEA 0.247 0.8851 0.193
Vernon Wells TOR 0.238 0.8846 0.167
Daniel Murphy NYN 0.238 0.8841 0.193
Mike Sweeney SEA 0.237 0.8817 0.173
Chad A Tracy ARI 0.203 0.8814 0.17
Mark Loretta LAN 0.24 0.88 0.197
Ty Wigginton BAL 0.235 0.8765 0.169
Jason Kendall MIL 0.227 0.875 0.234
Eric Byrnes ARI 0.216 0.8743 0.155
Coco Crisp KC 0.228 0.8722 0.176
Brian Giles SD 0.197 0.8716 0.189
Carlos J Quentin CHA 0.229 0.8702 0.191
Josh Bard WAS 0.239 0.8657 0.155
John McDonald TOR 0.227 0.8636 0.211
Aaron Miles CHN 0.2 0.8609 0.224
Chad Moeller BAL 0.2 0.86 0.209
Alex Gonzalez CIN 0.225 0.858 0.219
Dioner F Navarro TB 0.205 0.8541 0.165
Ryan J Sweeney OAK 0.246 0.8534 0.217
Willy Taveras CIN 0.229 0.8507 0.167
Luis O Rodriguez SD 0.23 0.8506 0.197

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