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Sources of AVG Upside? High Contact Rates and Line Drive Percentages

With everyday players garnering more than 200 ABs this season, the ability to ferret out possible buy low players for batting average upside becomes more challenging as the high ABs make it harder to determine who has shaken-off a poor start and returned to their expected levels of production. This is where the data mining of peripherals statistics becomes helpful.

Using Batting Average, Contact Rate and Line Drive Percentage, my intuition tells me those players with a high contact rate and good LD% should have a good AVG. If they do not, then there exists the possibility of a positve return as the AVG catches up with the peripherals.

Normally, I take a list like this and discard the players I don't believe make a difference. It is the players that have a solid track record who catch my eye. In this case, just 29 players had an AVG under .250, a contact rate of 85% or more and a LD% of 15% or higher. So I left the list unaltered.

Is my intuition regarding the relationship between AVG, contact rate and LD% correct?




Star-divide

Last Tm BA Contact RateLD%
Brian SchneiderNYN0.2050.97440.179
Yuniesky BetancourtSEA0.2370.92270.173
Shane M RobinsonSTL0.240.920.167
Orlando CabreraOAK0.2320.9120.197
Augie OjedaARI0.2370.89830.19
Jimmy RollinsPHI0.2170.89510.171
Ramon HernandezCIN0.2480.88610.188
Jose C LopezSEA0.2470.88510.193
Vernon WellsTOR0.2380.88460.167
Daniel MurphyNYN0.2380.88410.193
Mike SweeneySEA0.2370.88170.173
Chad A TracyARI0.2030.88140.17
Mark LorettaLAN0.240.880.197
Ty WiggintonBAL0.2350.87650.169
Jason KendallMIL0.2270.8750.234
Eric ByrnesARI0.2160.87430.155
Coco CrispKC0.2280.87220.176
Brian GilesSD0.1970.87160.189
Carlos J QuentinCHA0.2290.87020.191
Josh BardWAS0.2390.86570.155
John McDonaldTOR0.2270.86360.211
Aaron MilesCHN0.20.86090.224
Chad MoellerBAL0.20.860.209
Alex GonzalezCIN0.2250.8580.219
Dioner F NavarroTB0.2050.85410.165
Ryan J SweeneyOAK0.2460.85340.217
Willy TaverasCIN0.2290.85070.167
Luis O RodriguezSD0.230.85060.197

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3 names stand out there

Jimmy Rollins, Vernon Wells, and Carlos Quentin. The rest are known low average guys (see Kendall) and free swingers with low OBP (see Byrnes)

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Jun 15, 2009 5:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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