Jay Bruce: Get In On The Ground Floor

by ILLZ on May 28, 2009 11:57 PM EDT

He's arrived for good. Still only 22 years old with just under 600 Major League at-bats, his stats, and more importantly his skills, say he's here. His current projected line is .241, 51 HR, 102 Runs, 105 RBI's, and 11 SB's. Age 22! AND... that BA is going to go up inevitably because of his 23% hit rate. I know projections have to be taken with a grain of salt because anything can happen throughout a season (injuries, slumps, lineup changes, etc.), but that's just a gaudy line.

Take a look at his skills, they're all taking steps forward from his rookie season: CT% up to 78% from 75% last season, BB% up to 9% from 7%, and batting eye (BB/K) up to .43 from .29. The only real blemish is that he still can't hit lelfites yet, currently at .196 with a .606 OPS.

One can reasonably expect him to finish this season at .270/ 35-45 HR, 200 total runs/RBI's, and 10ish steals. That easily makes him a top 3 OF going into next year, especially in keeper leagues, no? Try to acquire him while his BA still surpesses his value.

Poll

Where does Jay Bruce sit in the OF rankings going into next season, assuming a mixed keeper league?

Number 1

0 votes

Top 3

6 votes

4 or 5

5 votes

Top 10

23 votes

Out of the top 10

9 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Great post.

I think Bruce falls out side of the top 10 OF. Competing to enter with him is Justin Upton and Adam Jones, too.

Fake Teams - a proud member of the SB Nation

by faketeams on May 29, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions

True

Both are off to outstanding seasons… Here’s a good one: If you had to draft your 2010 team right now, who do you take, of the 3, in order?

by ILLZ on May 30, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Great Question

Upton, Bruce and Jones. I think Jones is the bigger mirage here with less power than the first two and not a great batting eye.

That said, I’d be happy with him as a consolation prize considering I epxect Upton to go in the 3rd round, Bruce in the 5th and Jones in the 8th/9th.

Fake Teams - a proud member of the SB Nation

by faketeams on May 30, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I think I'm going:

Bruce, Upton, Jones. I think Jones is the definite 3rd choice, and it’s very close between Bruce and Upton. Do you know any sites that have updated in season sabermetric stats like ct%, xBA, etc.? I always just do it by hand. The reason I ask is I’m wondering what Upton’s xBA is right now, his hit rate is 46%! CT% is still low, but it’s getting better.

by ILLZ on May 30, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Joe Mauer - Get in on the Ground Floor!

Mauer hits another one! Get in on the ground floor!

Come on, man. How is this the ‘ground floor’ for Bruce? He was a first round draft pick who destroyed the minor leagues, played over 100 games in the majors last year and hit over 20 homeruns.

This may not be the penthouse yet, but if you’re just jumping on the Bruce bandwagon now, it’s hardly the ground floor. Really, you’d be lucky to find room.

by Pawtucket Pat on Jun 3, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

Well...

If you understand the nature of fantasy baseball statistics (the fact that they are products of other stats (peripherals or skills)), and you understand things like development curves and what not, then of course you are already aware of Bruce. But the average fantasy leaguer does not understand these concepts. He/she looks at Bruces .212 BA and says, “the guy can’t hit for average, he’s just another Pat Burrell/Adam Dunn”.

The point of the post was really that Bruce is going to be the real deal, and probably a perennial top 5 OF by next season. Maybe the title was inappropriate, and perhaps the “ground floor” ship has sailed in most leagues (even though I’m willing to bet he can still be acquired easily). But don’t focus on the title of the post, focus on the post.

by ILLZ on Jun 5, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions