Buying High: Minnesota Twins Joe Mauer

by faketeams on May 18, 2009 12:00 PM EDT

15 games into Joe Mauer's 2009 season, he is hitting .429 with an astounding six HRs. For a player whose HR totals the previous two seasons were 9 and 7 and who has hit double digit HRs in just one of his nine professional seasons (13 in 2005), the HRs seem to be either a fluke or a signal that the 6'4, 220lb Mauer has finally developed the power his frame would dictate he had.

I admit to thinking there may be more to this power surge than luck, but I wanted to see how unusual this power surge has been. To do so, I looked at Mauer's game-by-game major league career using Baseball Musings' Day-by-Day database.

Using rolling 15-game periods, one can see that Mauer has never had a stretch like the one he is currently in. The most HRs he has hit in any 15-game stretch is four, and that was last accomplished in 2004.

Year	# 15G Periods	0 HR	1 HR	2 HR	3 HR	4 HR	5+ HR	Highest AVG	% Period start 0 HR
2008	132	51	39	31	11	0	0	0.404	0.386
2007	95	38	41	6	10	0	0	0.415	0.400
2006	126	16	58	40	12	0	0	0.517	0.127
2005	117	34	40	40	3	0	0	0.393	0.291
2004	21	0	0	4	12	5	0	0.380	0

As interesting is the fact Mauer's .429 AVG has not been the best he has had in his career. In fact, Mauer seems to be capable of hitting in the .400 range over 15 games every season. (>.395 3 times in 2008, 4 in 2007, 33 times in 2006, none ion 2005 and 2004).

Of course, looking beyond this data shows Mauer with an incredibly high flyball percentage. 48.6% in 2009 is greater than the sum of his past four season's FB%s - 34.9%. An actual increase in his GB% points towards this surge being temporary.

So why do I think there could be more to this surge than an incredibly high FB%? The sacroiliac injury. The efforts to manage the injury could have changed Mauer's stance just enough to help his power. Normally, we think of an injury causing a negative cascade towards other injuries, but is there any reason to think compensating for a condition couldn't help?

Poll

Do you think Mauer's power surge is real?

No. Wishing it were so versus the crazy FB% and small sample doesn't make it so.

24 votes

Yes, but not to the point Mauer has become Mike Piazza.

63 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

An interesting thing about this power surge

is that there appears to be no difference in his approach. I always thought that Mauer would have to start “cheating” and pulling the ball to hit it out. Instead, he’s hit 5 HR to left and 2 to center. He looks the exact same as before, only now the fly balls to left are going over the fence. I’m sure he’ll regress, but he’s all ready past the point where any type of regression will keep him from having a significant step forward this season. He’d have to turn into Juan Pierre for the rest of the season match his power production from last year.

by lookatthosetwins on May 20, 2009 6:32 PM EDT reply actions

+1

His GB% says he is the same player he has always been, but the boost in power came from somewhere. I figure it is on the margins and not easily seen. hence, I specualted that the sacroiliac management caused a slight shift that lead to the explosion. A slight shift back or slight bend of the back leg or or or I don’t know.

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by faketeams on May 20, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions