Patriots Fans Justify Why Cutler Is Worth More Than Cassel
by Skeller on Apr 7, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
in Football
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PrintWith the recent trade of Jay Cutler, Patriots fans are puzzled. They're trying to understand the fact that Jay Cutler (and a third round pick) was worth two first rounders and a starting QB in trade value, while their own Matt Cassel (and an old linebacker) were only worth a single second round pick. How is that possible? Considering the Patriots are Super Geniuses like Wile E. Coyote, how could there be such a discrepancy in trade value?
Boston Globe writer Mike Reiss is so unable to get his mind around it that he starts making up analogies.
Summing up my thoughts, I go back to what I wrote when the Patriots made the Cassel trade. I compared the trade to the Patriots playing blackjack and getting dealt a 17.
When considering the totality of the situation, it wasn't the best hand, or a 21 like the Broncos were just dealt. At the same time, I still don't see it as a fold.
What the hell is he talking about? Trades aren't decided by having teams spin the Wheel-O-Compensation. "Oops, too bad, you got Mike Vrabel!" The Broncos weren't "dealt" anything. It's not random. Trades are negotiatied. He also brings up the point that the Patriots were hindered because they would never trade Cassel to Denver, although Denver wasn't the one offering the two first round picks so I don't know why that matters.
Reiss does bring up some other, more relevant, points. The biggest point is the fact that the Pats had too much salary cap money tied up in Cassel so they had to move fast (true). Cassel's one-year, $14.6 million salary was also an obstacle, as teams would be worried they couldn't get Cassel signed to an affordable long-term contract (also true).
What Reiss misses is that both of those things were the Patriots' fault. They're the ones that used the franchise tag on Cassel, thereby locking up salary cap money. And that franchise tag automatically instituted the one-year, $14.6 million salary. That isn't random chance. That isn't the market. That's the Patriots mishandling the situation.
Denver announced that Cutler was on the market and 48 hours later they had traded him for two first round draft picks and a starting QB. You have to wonder if the Patriots had made a similar public announcement if they would have come up with the same windfall.
It looks to me like the Patriots screwed up the entire Matt Cassel situation. Now imagine what it will look like if Brady isn't healthy....
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Ummm, wha?
“What Reiss misses is that both of those things were the Patriots’ fault. They’re the ones that used the franchise tag on Cassel, thereby locking up salary cap money. And that franchise tag automatically instituted the one-year, $14.6 million salary. That isn’t random chance. That isn’t the market. That’s the Patriots mishandling the situation. "
What you’re missing is that if the Pats didn’t franchise Cassel, he walks as a FA and the Patriots get NOTHING. If you’re going to bang on Reis, you should go back and read his work from around the time the Cassel trade was made. He did a pretty good job of explaining why the Pats got what they got for Cassel in response to the public opinion that they got way too little. The Pats were in no position to bargain – everybody knew what they had: a system guy with ONE good year under his belt holding a team hostage with an untenable cap number. His analogy is apt – you just don’t get it.
+1
Terrible analysis by Mr. Skeller. It’s the Patriots fault for franchising Cassel? He prefers they let him walk instead of trading him for something? Anything even? How many teams were even able to trade for Cassel without negotiating a contract extension first because of the cap hit that would require? Last time I checked something was almost always better than nothing.
By the way, where is the post talking about how well the Broncos came out of the trade with the Bears? They traded an immature brat of a QB and a 5th round pick for 2 1sts and a 3rd, plus a veteran QB. That’s a huge haul for a guy you had to dump. So where is the love for the Broncos? You were just calling for the Broncos to fire McDaniels a few weeks ago. Change your mind yet?
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Apr 7, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Trading vs Walking
You’re making it seem as though the Patriots woke up the day before the Franchise Tag deadline and said “Oh crap!”. At what point in the season did the Patriots think they were going to need to deal with this? During the season the Patriots didn’t even know if Brady was coming back (if they even do now), why wouldn’t they have tried to lock up their QB?
You mean they couldn’t have signed Cassel for 2 years at $8 million a year? At that salary, he’d be making the same as Brady or Warner, so it would be more than enough for his talent, but still too much salary cap for the Pats to carry if Brady is healthy. So, if Brady is out, they have their QB. If he comes back, they’re looking to trade Cassel. At THAT point, they can get in on the trade market fun. If Cutler is worth two 1st rounders, isn’t Cassel worth one? I think the Pats horribly misplayed this situation. Heaven help them if Brady’s knee isn’t 100%
No, I still think the Broncos made a mistake with McDaniels.
All About Value
You mean they couldn’t have signed Cassel for 2 years at $8 million a year?
Why would Cassel do that? He’s on the verge of free agency and after being a career backup has shown that he’s actually good enough to start in the league. So instead of looking for a long term contract with a team that’s signing him to be the starter, he’s going to sign for 2 years with the Pats for probably way less money then he could earn elsewhere? Why would he do that? That makes no sense. For either side.
If they actually followed your scenario, what are they able to accomplish in free agency? How many signings are they not able to make because they are wasting $8 Mil on a backup QB. What teams if any have carried two highly paid QBs in the salary cap era? None that I can think of.
The one thing the Patriots have shown time and time again, with a rare exception (Brady, Seymour, maybe Wilfork coming up) is that they will not overpay anyone. They have their value system set and that’s what they follow. They let Adam Vinatieri walk didn’t they? He was as instrumental in their championships as much as anyone, right? People ripped that move, but how did that work out for them? Gostkowski has been quite good at less than half the price.
They got a high 2nd round pick in a deep draft for a backup QB. That’s what Cassel is to them. Their backup QB. That’s called good value.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Apr 7, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Please stop.
Yes, heaven help the Pats if Brady isn’t 100%. They might be forced to go with a back-up and go 11-5 again. Oh the horror. And when did your post turn into an indictment of the Broncos’ selection of McDaniels? Now I think I’m as confused as you seem to be.
And stillredsoxfan is right – Cassel would have been an idiot (and his agent the subject of an ineffective assistance of counsel lawsuit) to sign on for 2 years/$8M as a back-up for the Pats. He’s either going to get $14M this year, or sign a long-term deal for maybe 5 years with $20 to $25M guaranteed. And he’s going to be a starter.
Even if you’re not drinking the Belichick cool-aid, you can’t think the Pats are actually stupid enough not to see what you seem to think is so obvious.
That much money?
You think a one-year quarterback who never even started in college playing on (arguably) the best team in the NFL is going to get more money in free agency than Tom Brady or Eli Manning makes?! It’s possible — I’ll never bet against the stupidity of most NFL GMs — but I highly doubt it.
I don’t blame Cassel for taking the money, I blame the Patriots for giving him that option. If you have a young QB that took your team to 11-5 and you trade him for less than a second round pick, then something’s wrong. Either the Pats knew Cassel was playing way over his head (very possible) or their front office screwed up.
For the sake of argument, I’m saying the Pats screwed up. Stillredsoxfan has a good point though, if the Pats didn’t care about Cassel and they are comfortable starting Kevin O’Connell at QB (if needed), then I’m not arguing with that. That might be their plan.
Thats not entirely true
Depending on Cassel’s performance, the Pats would’ve receive some form of compensatory pick in 2010. Quoting from the most reliable source I can find (that would be Wikipedia):
There are a total of 32 picks awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as “compensatory picks,” are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player’s salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor.
Granted, they would not have received the 2nd rounder. But they would have received compensation.
I just sit back and root for the taser
I'm on Twitter now. www.twitter.com/Enrico_Palazzo_
Let's be honest
As a Pats fan I will try to be unbiased in my analysis. Here is why the Pats got a second-rounder and the Broncos got two firsts: everyone in the league would rather have Jay Cutler. The market for Cassel was the handful of teams desperate for help at QB. The market for Cutler was everyone except the 4 or 5 teams with a stud QB.
And people REALLY need to understand that Mike Vrabel’s inclusion in the trade was a concession on the Chiefs part, not the Pats.
I do think that Mike Reiss’ analysis is a little bewildering.
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