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Drafting for 2010

After a failed attempt to win a 4X4 AL Only Keeper league in 2008 my roster going into the offseason was bereft of solid keepers so I decided to start the rebuilding process early and start planning for 2010.  I traded away fully priced players such as John Lackey, Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins and Joe Nathan for cheaper players with higher long term upside such as Jed Lowrie, Shin Soo Choo, Alex Gordon and minor league picks.

Here was my strategy for the auction that took place over the weekend:

1) Draft tradable commodities.  The two easiest categories to trade to contending teams are saves and steals so with that in mind I drafted:

Papelbon 44-I had a bit of buyer's remorse after this one but when Fuentes 38, Jenks 40, Kerry Wood 40 went quickly after Papelbon as the only available closers I felt much better about my choice.

Crawford 37-I got a bit of an injury discount on Crawford as he went for 47 last year.  He has a history of 50 SB seasons and has never been injured before so he will either be a nice trade chip or a decent keep for next season.

2) Injury Discounts:

A-Rod-39.  Was hoping to get him under 40 so I was happy with the price.  He went for 52 last year so a good keep for 2010 as long as the hip doesn't continue to give him problems.

Joe Mauer-18.  I was not really targeting Mauer but the way the draft was unfolding I felt he was going to be a good value under 20.  He went for 25 last year so assuming his back is OK he is a good keeper but may be a better trade chip since almost every team has a $1 catcher who is terrible.

Aaron Hill-11.  I paid 26 bucks for him last year, which was a disaster, but if he is over the concussion he is a nice keeper for next season

3) Players with long term upside

Salty-12.  I was hoping to get him for less than 10 but I think 12 bucks is reasonable for a C who was once a top prospect playing in a great hitter's park. 

Felix Pie-3.  Before spring training I thought Pie would go for somewhere around 10-15 but he really was awful this spring.  I do not think the chances are good that Pie every lives up to his minor league hype but I guess it is worth 3 bucks to find out

4) Young starting pitchers.  I went into the draft with zero of my 9 pitching spots filled and my intention was to get at least one closer and a bunch of starters I felt had some upside. 

Clay Bucholz-6.  My best buy of the draft.  Last year he was the number one pitching prospect in baseball.  He got beat up in the majors but dominated AAA.  I stil think he will be an ace as soon as next year.

Trevor Cahill-4.  One of the best prospects in baseball, he will probably get killed this year but long term should be outstanding.

David Purcey-2.  Former tough draft pick seemed to put it together at the end of last season

Scott Lewis-2

Kyle Davies-5

Overall I felt that I accomplished what I set out to do.  I stuck to my draft strategy even while tanking beers.  My minor league system, which had zero players at the end of last season now has Gordon Beckham, Carlos Santana, Lars Anderson, Eric Hosmer, Desmond Jennings, Nick Weglarz and Josh Reddick.

It was not easy giving up 2009 before the season started but I knew that my team was unlikely to compete this year and figured if I bailed early I would get a jump on every else who finds themselves in 9th place in June.  Now it is all about the execution. 

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Interesting post

I, too thought about this strategy a few years ago, but ultimately, I decided against it because in the prospect game, anything can happen.

A few thoughts on Papelbon:
With you going into the draft with over $200 to spend, I really felt the need to lock up a good chunk of your flexability with one guy, and I think I succeeded with Paps after bidding 43 on him. His dominance in 3 categories is much more valuable than most would imagine, and with the Sox havign a less potent offense than in years past, it would;ve surprise me too see him with a small spike in SV opps.

I thought your staff was a little too long in young SPs vs. the middle tier of Greinkes and Garza’s that were available, but that is just my observation. I really like David Purcey and was aiming at getting him as an endgame grab, but with the extra dollar you got me there.

Overall, it will be had for you to sit idly by the whole next offseason, but I am eager to see how you do next year or if your competitive juices get the best of you if you surprise and are in contention by the end of June….

by thomasps3 on Apr 6, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yee haw

i say we just all quit after this year! hopefully you paid already

by superherodj on Apr 6, 2009 8:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Considering it

After Sabathia, lee, Lewis and Coke combine for 17 ERs in 11.1 innings with 29 runners. What was Girardi thinking sending Coke out for a third inning?

by faketeams on Apr 6, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Must be a Hz thing

didn’t Steve have an opening day like that last year?

by DB11 on Apr 6, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He did

He also said you put in for Larish yesterday. I’m glad I got him for Wood.

If Wood were in the draft, what would you have bid in a 2010 strategy?

by faketeams on Apr 6, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wood

Probably around $5-10. But if he came up later in the draft that may have been bumped up since I, along with some other teams, were sitting on a decent amount of cash with nowhere to spend it.

by DB11 on Apr 7, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

2008 pitching line

3 inngs, 17 runners, 14 ers. Those type days continue for about a month…….I was buried. Yeah, at least CC stayed true to his horrid Aprils…..

MLG_true_MVP-88'

by Hinz57er on Apr 7, 2009 6:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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