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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Jay Cutler Traded To Bears For Kyle Orton

That didn't take long.  The Broncos traded disgruntled QB Jay Cutler to the Bears for QB Kyle Orton and draft picks.

To acquire Cutler, the Bears had to give up quarterback Kyle Orton and first-round picks in 2009 and 2010, a source said.

To complete the trade, the Broncos had to give back a third-round pick in 2009.

How about that?   On the surface this looks like a good deal for the Bears.   Kyle Orton has had some fantasy value, but he hasn't put up the big numbers that Cutler (4500+ passing yds last season) has put up.  But you have to wonder how much of that is Cutler/Orton and how much is their team's offense. 

Quick Quiz:  Name a single Bears receiver.

Answers: Devin Hester (665 yds), Greg Olsen (574 yds), Rashied Davis (445 yds), some other guys.

Let's face it, the Bears have nobody to catch the ball.  Since they traded away their first round pick, they're not going to get a premium WR in the draft either.   I don't see any way that Cutler throws for anything close to 4500 yds this season.

On the other hand, Kyle Orton moves to a team where they like need to throw the ball.

Quick Quiz:  Name the Bronco RBs with 15+ carries last season.

Answers: Peyton Hillis, Michael Pittman, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain.

And don't forget that in the off-season they've already signed J.J. Arrington, Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan. And the Broncos now have two first round draft picks (#12 and #18) coming up.  They might draft a RB.  Who's going to be starting at RB?  Who knows?  It might be unknowable, like the sound of one hand clapping.  The point is, the Broncos will be throwing the ball again.  A lot.  Orton should easily surpass the 2972 pass yds and 18 TDs he had last season.

In fact, for fantasy purposes you could start with the assumption that Orton and Cutler will duplicate each other's 2008 stats this season, like one of those Disney Channel body-swapping movies.

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