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Why Dustin Pedroia Is Ranked As The Top 2B

ESPN.com's ranking of 2B Dustin Pedroia as 2009's top player at his position still vexes me.  A simple thought experiment that has someone spending $35 one of Pedroia, Chase Utley or Ian Kinsler is enough to demonstrate the mind-boggling nature of the rank.  Yesterday's poll (Currently 69-8 against Pedroia) further supports that.

A closer look at the projections for the three second basemen shows Pedroia with a considerable lead in AVG over Utley and Kinsler - .322 to .295 and .292 respectively, and projects him totalling most runs scored -105 to 82 and 102.  In HRs and RBIs, Pedoria trials both.  In SB, his 15 SBs trail Kinsler by eight and lead Utley by four.

Accepting Pedroia as the top 2B means accepting his projected AVG will be considerably better than the other projections, that positve differences have a greater net effect than the differences where Pedroia falls short and that Chase Utley will receives 100 fewer plate appearances than Pedroia and Kinsler.

 

Poll
Is Dustin Pedroia a better risk than either Chase Utley or Ian Kinsler?
Yes.
19 votes
No
74 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 2 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Pedroia

I am of the minority that believes Pedroia should be ranked at the top. It is very very close, however. Of the “big 3”, Pedroia has the least amount of risk involved, first and foremost. Kinsler is on the verge of acquiring the “injury prone” label; I’d say one more DL trip will get him there, and Utley has the hip issue as well as a relative second half decline last year that everybody seems to be forgetting about. Let’s look at Pedroia:

The case against him is that he overperformed so much last year that there’s no just reason to believe he can come close to repeating. That’s a valid concern, but I’m not too worried because of two things. First, he’s going into his age 25 season, not his age 33 season. He’s still on the growth curve. And second, take a look at his second half numbers, he IMPROVED greatly. His Power Index went from 75 to 83 in ‘06 and ’07, then took a small step forward in the first half last year to 87, and then took a major step to 123 in the 2nd half. Same thing with his Speed Index… 39 and 80 in ’06 and ’07, 92 1st half last year, and then 117 in the 2nd half. Throw in the fact that his xBA jumped 30 points from 296 to 326 1st to 2nd half also, and you have a player that, IMO, is pretty unlikely to take a step back. He could even take a step forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went .335, 25 HR and 25 SB. That would almost definitely make him the best 2B on the year. While it is close between the 3, I would take Pedroia before the other 2.

by ILLZ on Feb 9, 2009 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

This is, of course, just my Red Sox side telling me

But i voted yes. Chew me out. Utley has a bit more pop, but I think Pedroia is better than Kinsler. The reason Pedroia gets the edge is because he seems to be one of the team leaders on the Red Sox, a team that is loaded with other stars. Youkilis, Bay, Lester… he seems to overshadow them all. Maybe partly cause of his ‘tude, but while being 5’7 and getting a hit nearly a third of the time? That’s special for a little guy.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Feb 14, 2009 10:14 PM EST reply actions  

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