MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay Signs With the Mets
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 30, 2009 9:00 AM EST
in Baseball
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PrintFinally, Jason Bay decided that the Mets were his only chance to sign a lucrative deal. With the Red Sox recent signing of Mike Cameron, the Giants signing Mark DeRosa and the Yankees signing Nick Johnson and probably Johnny Damon, Bay's choices were very limited.
What remains to be seen is how Bay hits in New York 's Citifield, an extreme pitchers park. Just ask David Wright how tough it is to hit a home run in the new ballpark. I heard this morning on XM Radio that Wright would love a trade out of New York. Time will tell.
Here is what ESPN's KeitH Law had to say about the signing:
The New York Mets needed another impact bat to replace Carlos Delgado, whose 2008 second-half surge was a big part of why the Mets had a lead to blow in the NL East that fall. Jason Bay should be that guy with his plate discipline, power and 200-plus games of experience in the toughest division in the game. Citi Field is a pretty good fit for Bay, as it's a good park for right-handed power hitters (plus-10 percent versus a neutral NL park, according to this year's Bill James Handbook).
That's interesting as Wright had all sorts of difficulty in the new ballpark. But what is without question is Bay's consistency. His worst year was 2007 where he went 21-84-.247, yet he has averaged 30-100-.280-.376-.519-.896 in his career.
Bill James projects Bay to go 32-103-11-.268-.374-.504-.878 in 2010. Bay hit in some pretty poor lineups in Pittsburgh, and some very good lineups in Boston, and will hit in a pretty good lineup next year. I am not sure he can hit 30 bombs in 2010, but Bay should be a good RBI guy with a healthy Wright, Reyes and Beltran hitting in front of him.
I am interested to see how high Bay will be auctioned for in the UBA league-a 12 team NL-only 4x4 league. Last year David Wright went for $49 before everyone knew how Citifield would play. I am curious if Bay will hit the $40 mark this year, as there are a few Mets fans in the league.
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Lazy
Citifield, an extreme pitchers park. Just ask David Wright how tough it is to hit a home run in the new ballpark………..WOW, how do people continue to believe and encourage this myth. David Wright hit 5 HR at Citi and 5 on the road, mets didnt hit HR b/c they trotted out lineups of Pagan, Castillo, Wright, francouer, tatis,Evans Santos, hernandez and a pitcher not b/c Citifield was some sorta huge national park. Road teams had no problem hitting HRs and in fact Citi played out as a slight hitters park for HRs especially to LF: which was stated by keith law 2 inches down from your mythical musings on the power sapping power of Citi field.
Citifield=myth?
could be due to the Mets putting a AAA team on teh field, sure, but it is the second biggest park in the majors behiond Coors field. Beltran was healthy for part of the season, why didn’t Wright’s HRs jump when he was in the lineup? why is Wright still complaining about the dimensions of the stadium?
Could the HRs hit by teams visiting Citifield been due to the Mets poor pitching?
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 30, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
lineup protection
plus hasn’t it been proven that lineup protection is a myth and the fact that one hitter hits behind another hitter doesn’t really benefit either hitter?
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 30, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
Ortiz
so his age had nothing to do with it?
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 30, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
What is there to see? Players break down with age and it’s a coincidence that he began to after Manny Ramirez left.
It’s not like the Red Sox lost all of their power when Manny left. They did nab Jason Bay to replace him.
by Ian, yo on Dec 30, 2009 12:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
not coincidence
How can it be coincidence that as soon as Manny leaves Ortiz begins his slump. And even though Bay came, he did not replace Manny. Bay hit 5 in the order and Ortiz hit 3. Manny is one of the best hitters in baseball because he can protect hitters like he did Ortiz. If it was not for Manny, Ortiz would not have been half the player he is. Pitchers would much rather pitch to Papi than to Manny
so...
how were the Dodgers able to score more runs without Manny than they did when he returned?
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 30, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
they are a good team full of many good hitters. Just because they scored more runs without him doesnt mean they are better without him. They just knew they had to step up when he was gone and they did
Ortiz
so he didn’t step up when Manny left?
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 30, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
2 month slump
From 6/1 to the end of the season ortiz was:
AB Hits 2B HR RBI BB K BA OBA Slug%
363 96 22 27 81 55 86 .264 .356 .548
not Big papi in his prime but still pretty good, think age has more to do with it as no one thought Ortiz would age gracefully, not exactly the protypical baseball body type!
The results lead us to not only reject the protection hypothesis, but also we find evidence that good on-deck hitters actually harm the hit and power probabilities of the current batter. This is consistent with the effort hypothesis. However, the magnitude of the spillover is tiny and for all practical purposes the effect is zero. Even very good (bad) hitters have only a very small impact on the batters who precede them.
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/
How about this?
You can put as much math and whatever you want into it bro. But the bottom line is when there is a runner in scoring position and a great hitter on deck, ask the pitchers what they are going to do. Give the batter something to hit.
We’re not even discussing a runner in scoring position. We’re talking about a hitter making the batter in front him better. Having a runner on base is an entirely different topic. That first link I posted shot the idea down of a Ethier getting better pitches when Manny hit behind him.
by Ian, yo on Dec 31, 2009 2:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
No its not a different topic, there are numerous times throughout the year when this situation happens. And that is why he makes the batter in front of him better. If there is no one on base then the batter on deck makes no difference. But with runners in scoring position the pitchers have to give the player pitches to hit.
So we’re not talking about how a great hitter makes the people around him better? I thought that was the exact thing were were discussing.
by Ian, yo on Dec 31, 2009 8:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
no way on the 30 part
Playing half his games in that park will sap his power numbers
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
that park increase right handers hitter homers by 12 percent..
its left handers who suffer
well wright Just SUCKED last year...
his power disappeared… its easy to blame it on the park… but numbers dont lie… 12 percent increase in right hand hiters homeruns..
NOPE
No it didn’t, how can it not be more than Citi field if Wright hit 5 HR at home and 5 on the road? he had an off year, I fully expect Wright to bounce back, HR wise and cut down on the K’s
so
Wright goes from hitting 33-124 in 2008 to 10-72 in 2009 and it has nothing to do with the dimensions of the new ballpark? I see the 12% increase in RH hitters HRs, but isn’t Wright a guy who hits most of his HRs to left-center and right-center?
here is his HRs in 2008 per HitTracker
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_208&type=hitter
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 31, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
from Olney-interesting
How will Bay fare in Citi Field? Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Research have four points on this:
1. Based on data from HitTracker Online, a website that tracked every home run hit in 2009, Bay’s home runs averaged a “standard distance” of 389.9 feet, which was tied for 82nd among the 99 players with at least 18 HR.
2. Based on data from HitTracker, only 17 of his 36 homers would have been home runs in all 30 ballparks.
3. HitTracker studied fly balls hit at Citi Field throughout the 2009 season and concluded that Citi Field took away a lot of potential home runs. There were 64 fly balls that weren’t home runs at Citi Field that would have been home runs at Shea Stadium (there were also four balls that were home runs at Citi Field, that wouldn’t have been home runs at Shea Stadium).
4. In 2009, Bay hit 15 home runs at Fenway Park. By HitTracker’s calculations, 7 of those would not have made it out of Citi Field, or 47 percent. A full review of HitTracker data from 2006 to 2008 leads to a projection in which Bay would hit 36 percent fewer home runs at Citi Field in 2010, and that his home run total should drop 16 percent overall.
Translation: He’d be projected to hit 10 HR at home and 30 HR overall in 2010.
raygu
While I disagree that Citi Field is an extreme pitchers park, I think Bay will put up numbers similar to those he put up in Pittsburgh.
Him actually earning his money in the latter years of his contract is a completely different story.
I’ve never personally liked Bay and will never draft him unless he comes at a bargain.
Wright never really “complained” about the dimensions of the stadium. And he really hasn’t commented on much of anything this offseason so I don’t see where he’s “still complaining” about it.
Citi wasn’t the only reason he struggled last season. Yes Citi did take some HRs away from him…I think Hittracker estimated he hit 8 balls that would have been out of Shea that weren’t out of Citi. But he still only hit 5 HR on the road, so clearly Citi wasn’t the only factor, though it may have been in his head a bit and he ended up messing with his swing too much. I think it was just an off year for him, and he’ll be fine hitting there in the future.
Also, numbers were not significantly different for Mets hitters or Mets pitchers in home runs hit or given up at Citi vs on the road. Yes, Citi is a big park and its not a HR haven, but its not impossible to hit HR there. Wright struggled b/c of a variety of other factors. And he’s also more of an all fields hitter and has a lot of power to the gaps….which is neutralized by the huge gaps at Citi (most of the HRs he “lost” to Citi were to CF and RCF). Down the lines and straight away LF/RF in Citi is not where the issues are…its not really any different from most other parks when it comes to LF….so a pull hitter like Bay shouldn’t have a big problem.
Mets players if healthy
will all prove to be huge fantasy bargains this year. Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay, Johan will all be gotten at discount unless your league has a few Met fans who will take em as if they were valued the same as previous years.
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