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Fantasy Baseball: Pitchers On The Brink.



We all know those guys who will give you one game with 9 or 10 K's and no earned runs, only to get shelled the following start. A big reason for this is a high BB/9. While it's nice to have high K guys, it can be frustrating. If I could tell the future, I could predict which guys will lower their BB rates, but since I can't, I will warn/enlighten you. 

Jorge de la Rosa- De la Rosa had a fairly good year for pitching a large portion of his starts in Coors field. In 2009, he put up his highest K/9 of his career but at the same time, had a BB/9 of over 4. While his ERA was a decent 4.38 (decent for a Coors pitcher) his FIP suggested he was better than that with an FIP of 3.91.Control has always been an issue for de la Rosa but if he could ever get that in check, he could become a very valuable fantasy option. At this point, de la Rosa is very inconsistent and with an elevated BB/9, he'll continue to be such. Keep an eye on him and use him as a matchup play in 2010.

Clayton Kershaw- Months after celebrating his 21st birthday, Clayton Kershaw posted a stellar 2.79 ERA in 171 innings in 2009. While his FIP suggested he was slightly worse than his ERA showed, Kershaw posted a swinging strike rate of 9.7% (which ranked 27th in the league in 2009.) Kershaw may be the one pitcher who can deal with his high walk rate when he has one of the best curveballs in baseball and is only 21 years old.

Jonathan Sanchez- Among one of the nastier pitchers in the game, Sanchez, posted the tenth best swinging strike percentage, among the likes of Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. While he can be one of the more frustrating players in baseball, he's shown that he can literally be unhittable. Every season Sanchez has pitched, he's posted an FIP that was significantly lower than his actual ERA.

A.J. Burnett- While Kershaw will likely be drafted early because of upside alone, Burnett will probably be drafted much, much sooner than he should be. If you're drafting Burnett, you're likely chasing wins and we know that when you chase wins, you disregard other things and are limited in other categories. Why not draft the better pitcher, who will be a safe bet and can get you occasional wins? A.J. Burnett pitched over 200 innings for the Yankees in 2009 and only won 13 games. While he did strike out 8.48 batters per nine innings, he also walked over 4 batters a game and allowed over 1 HR per game. When A.J. Burnett is being drafted at around 130 overall, you could look down the line just a little bit more and see a guy like Wandy Rodriguez, who  will strike out about 8 batters per nine innings and keep his walks in check and probably in the mid 2's.

Poll
Who would you prefer in 2010?
A.J. Burnett. Gotta expect lots of wins pitching for the Yankees.
61 votes
Wandy Rodriguez. Forget wins, Wandy' is the better pitcher.
63 votes

124 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

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Wandy Rodriguez is my choice

Wins can come and go, quality pitching performances are not as likely to. I’d take a pitcher like Wandy who might not get the wins, but will be a better pitcher than a win-machine like A.J. Burnett or J.A. Happ every day of the week.

by cr1578 on Dec 30, 2009 12:37 AM EST reply actions  

+1

I tend toward the ratios andf worry about Wins later.

by faketeams on Dec 30, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa

Those are two guys that I agree will take a HUGE step forward in on-the-surface statistics in 2010. Other guys I think could have some 2010 breakout potential, or maybe 2011 breakout potential:
Rick Vandenhurk
Aaron Laffey
Tom Gorzelanny
Carlos Carrasco
Josh Roenicke
and, of course, Ricky Nolasco

by cr1578 on Dec 30, 2009 12:49 AM EST reply actions  

I agree with you on Burnett, but apparently the voters do not.

I did mention that Burnett only won 13 games with the Yankees, right?

by Ian, yo on Dec 30, 2009 11:13 AM EST reply actions  

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