Fantasy Baseball: Same As It Ever Was

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 21, 2009 12:00 PM EST in Baseball

On a daily basis, I look forward to reading Buster Olney's blog to see if I can sift some nuggets of information that can help me in my fantasy leagues. Yesterday morning, he posted the following:

Coco Crisp is nearing a deal with the Oakland Athletics, according to late word from MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes. Presumably Crisp will slot into Oakland's center field and be flanked by Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis to make up a strong defensive outfield. This is yet another sign that teams that are most shaped by statistical analysis have determined that defense is the undervalued asset in the current marketplace.

He goes on to talk about the Red Sox recent signing of Mike Cameron to play left field, and the Mariners decision to re-sign shortstop Jack Wilson. We have also seen the White Sox trade for Juan Pierre. Other than Wilson, the 3 guys mentioned have one thing in common for fantasy owners. They can steal bases. They can run fast and they can play good defense.

These trades and signings mark a change in roster construction philosophy that could expand over the next few years. As Olney stated, defense is the undervalued asset in the marketplace. Teams are putting more emphasis on pitching and defense after a decade or so emphasizing the long ball in the steroid era.

It is time for fantasy owners to take notice as we may see a switch to small ball where pitching, defense and speed are emphasized more. Will we see more Coco Crisp/Juan Pierre types winning position battles because he can steal a base and play good defense? This could lead to an increase in stolen bases and a continued drop in home runs and runs scored in 2010 and beyond.

Should the roster construction philosophy of major league teams change to emphasize speed and defense, fantasy owners will have to factor that into their draft day strategy as speed guys will become more abundant and power guys become that much more expensive.

On a separate note, could this change in philospophy lead to the elimination of the designated hitter in the American League?

Poll

As we see more and more teams emphasize improving their defense, will this lead to the elimination of the DH?

Yes, it is being discussed by Bud Selig and his new committee to improve baseball.

19 votes

No, they should add the DH to the National League

27 votes

46 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

DH

What we’ve seen with the emphasis on defense is the lessening of the DH on fantasy baseball. Where are the mashers of a decade ago who would merit high selection/auction values based on 35/100 production?

by faketeams on Dec 21, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions

Off fthe Juice?

by Rad on Dec 21, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions

Chicken and Egg

What came 1st – a shift towards defense needs smaller players or no juicing which led to smaller players and then a shift towards defense?

My guess is some teams would have moved towards emphaising defense regardless, but the lack of PEDs has made everyone do it. The next wave will be trying to win games by scoring runs via the HR.

The inexplicable signing of Coco Crisp by the A’s and an OF that looks incapable of hitting 20 HRs amongst them is the death knell of Defense and Pitching 1st team building.

by faketeams on Dec 21, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

The DH doesn't matter since teams don't use the DH effectively

Let’s look at the 17 players with more than 300 PAs at DH. Of them, only 5 had a bat worth more than 1 win (according to fangraphs). Meaning, the teams who field a guy to JUST HIT did not hit.

On to defense, yes, defense improves the run prevention, and thus the pitching. Also, let’s not pretend that Juan pierre is a good defensive player. He’s been average to below because of his weak arm 3 of the past 4 years. I don’t think one above average season dictates a new level of skill that will be maintained.

What does this mean for Fantasy? It makes the chasm wider for stars and scrubs, especially in Auction leagues. This also makes the value of power just that much higher since it is less abundant, but devalues the stolen base since there are more sources for it. Just my take.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Dec 21, 2009 2:41 PM EST reply actions

Power more valuable

At the higher end, yes. Taking Adam Dunn earlier makes sense. However, I wouldn’t reach for Raul Ibanez over a top SP in the 4th round just because Raul shines amongst the 25-30 HR crowd at OF.

by faketeams on Dec 21, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Very good point

High end power is now more valuable than High end speed.

by Hyatt on Dec 22, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions

Pretty much spot-on. If you participate in an AL-Auction league long enough like I do, you’ll tend to agree with this point.

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by Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) on Dec 26, 2009 4:14 AM EST up reply actions

poll

these polls should offer more choices .
as it is , this one dictates that i not vote , again .

by big o on Dec 21, 2009 10:33 PM EST reply actions

AAAAANNNNNDDDD

your choice would be what??? what choice is missing?

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 21, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

I guess the third choice would be no, things remain the same. I also didn’t vote, as I don’t foresee things changing anytime soon. The dynamic of the game would be altered to a fairly significant state by making this change, at least.

FakeTeams.com - SBNation's Fantasy Source
Michigan Preps of Rivals.com - The Ultimate Source For Michigan High School Sports

by Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) on Dec 26, 2009 4:15 AM EST up reply actions