Let me share a little situation that I faced tonight. I just want to emphasize something that, so far, paid off.
Looking around at a lot of "expert" rankings, I saw Mike Sims-Walker ranked fairly low. Well, he's been injured, and frankly, been pretty abysmal over the last few weeks. No doubt due to injury, but also to a weak offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Staying a step ahead of my opponents, I picked up RB Chris Jennings of Cleveland with my waiver claim, and then RB Arian Foster of the Texans as soon as waivers passed. Keeping ahead of your opponents, lesson one. One of the readers left a comment in my Ask TROR post about looking forward to the next week (playoff seeded-bye or not) as far as matchups and depth go, which is excellent. This is the kind of strategy that consistently will put you a tier above other players.
In regards to the original point, I was left with a flex option of Jennings, Foster, or Sims-Walker, who I picked up off the free agent wire early in the season. Now, all signs by any advice you read were to stay away from MSW tonight. For the reasons I listed above, that the Colts weren't resting starters, and that they were ranked as the second best scoring defense in the NFL. OK, all valid points.
So, what about the reasons why he should be started? I've got a huge one: Does anyone remember Brandon Marshall last week? 21 catches for their star receiver, anyone? Anyone? I saw reports that the Colts should try and double-team Sims-Walker. What, you mean that Denver has some other second receiver that's ultra-dangerous on an island? Child, please. On top of that, the Colts secondary is banged up, and hasn't been spectacular by any means.
In the end, after even inserting Jennings once, I stuck with my guns. Sims-Walker scores and puts up 12+ points. Did I expect No. 1 receiver production, no, but he did what I expected, if not more for his slot.
How does this apply to anyone? Do your own research, look at the numbers, and rankings and projections don't mean jack at this point. You know what the established players are going to do as well as anyone, and for the guys you don't know about, well..no one else does much more.
For everyone who played against the Colts stars or MJD this weekend, good luck, and that goes for everyone else.