MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay at What Cost?

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 27, 2009 3:52 PM EST in Baseball

Jeremy Sandler from the National Post has an article discussing the plans that new Toronto GM Alex Anthopolous has for building the Blue Jays through scouting and development. He also mentions the following regarding Anthopolous' demands in return for dealing ace starter Roy Halladay:

The Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.

It is a high price for a player with just one year left on his contract.

But with the number of clubs lining up, the Jays may escape the damage created by not having dealt Halladay before the 2009 trade deadline.

Industry insiders suggest serious offers in the coming weeks should match Toronto's wish list.

If they are anything less, the Jays can hold on to Halladay, seeing where the offers go with the knowledge he will be worth two high draft picks next year if he signs with another club as a Type A free agent.

I will be subtle here. If Anthopolous thinks he will get both a major league ready arm and a major league ready bat, PLUS prospects for one year of Halladay and his $15 million contract, he better get his scouts working on those draft picks as soon as possible.

One year of Roy Halladay is not enough for the 4 pieces that he is asking for. It appears he is trying to get July 31, 2009 value for one year, and the shot to sign him long term, of Halladay. I just don't see it. He is asking for more than what the Indians received in return for Cliff Lee last July, it appears.

Eric Seidman from Baseball Prospectus disagrees with me, sort of. Here is his response to my question regarding the Blue Jays return for Halladay in a recent chat:

raygu1 (burlington, NJ): Will Anthropolous get more in return for Halladay than the Indians got for Lee?

Eric Seidman: I expect him to get more and from a shorter supply of players, but given what the Phillies surrendered for Lee, that's really setting the bar low.

Did Cliff Lee's performance in the playoffs and World Series increase the value of one year of Halladay?

Poll

Did Cliff Lee's performance in the playoffs and World Series increase the value of one year of Roy Halladay?

Yes, teams like the Red Sox and Dodgers will meet the demands of Anthpolous.

161 votes

No, Lee's contract was not as expensive as Halladays, so the cost should be less.

145 votes

306 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

One thing you are also not taking into account is the team that Halladay will be traded to. He will only go to a team where he believe a World Series is a good possibility in the next few years – and because of that will sign. AA isn’t going to trade Halladay as a rental player because he knows the value is less. AA will be granting the team with the best deal time to negotiate a contract extension because it will easily net him the best return.

I’d like to compare Halladay to some players for you. Halladay has a better career ERA than Tom Glavine (2x Cy Young winner), has 7 fewer Complete Games than Glavine despite starting almost 400 fewer games, has a better Wins/Games ratio, has 130 wins in his first 8 “full” seasons compared to 122 wins for Glavine. I think most people are preparing for Glavine to make his way to the HOF after he retires, and for good reason, he was a very good pitcher – so is Halladay.

Halladay is a top 5 pitcher in the league and someone (unlike many other starters) who on any night can give your relievers a rest and completely shutdown the other team for the full 9 innings. That, plus the likely contract extension, is why the price is so high.

And if teams just can’t sign Halladay, they can still collect those high draft picks as compensation.

by Belligerent Burkie on Nov 27, 2009 4:10 PM EST reply actions