Fantasy Baseball: Will Adrian Gonzalez be Undervalued on Draft Day 2010

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 25, 2009 9:00 AM EST in Baseball

ESPN's Buster Olney wrote in his morning blog yesterday the following:

Heard this, again: It is extremely unlikely that the Padres will move Adrian Gonzalez in a trade this winter. The bottom line is that nothing is really compelling in exchange for Gonzalez right now, because he is already a star player and he has a low salary.

I am not sure what Olney means by "The bottom line is that nothing is really compelling in exchange for Gonzalez right now...". Does he have the ear of Padre's GM Jed Hoyer already? Or vice-versa? We already know AGonz is a star player and has a low salary, but what offers have been turned down? And who made the offers?

The assumption is that there have been offers, and Hoyer may be trying to increase his return at this point, and why shouldn't he?

But, fantasy owners will have a dilemma come draft day if Gonzalez is still a Padre. The owner runs the risk of losing Gonzalez if playing in an NL-only league. If playing in a mixed league, his value may actually increase as his production can only increase if he is traded mid-season. So, should mixed leaguers move Gonzalez up a few notches with the thought that his production will increase should he be traded to a team with a better lineup?

But the NL-only owner has to decide in what round he wants to draft Gonzalez. If the early rounds, the owner may want to draft another first baseman, or the extra outfielder if he thinks Gonzalez will be traded mid-season.

The NL-only auction league owner has a big dilemma as well. How much to spend on AGonz? Is it possible Gonzalez goes for under $30 in NL-only leagues in 2010? Or will he be valued as if he won't be traded in 2010?

Poll

Will Adrian Gonzalez be undervalued on draft day 2010 if he is still a Padre?

Yes, NL-only players will pass on him with the fear he will be traded

16 votes

No, you cannot let a trade scenario affect your draft strategy

27 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Auction

I do believe the threat of a trade will suppress Gonzalez’ draft value in NL-Only leagues. However, the mitigating cicumstance is the Padres will be dealing from a place of non-competitiveness so they won’t care who AGonz is dealt to because the Padres are years from being contenders.

So what if the Dodgers get him and make the play-offs in 2010 and 2011. The Padres won’t be sniffing them until 2012.

by faketeams on Nov 25, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions