Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 1, Pick 2

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 11, 2009 3:00 PM EST in Baseball

After Ian's selection of Hanley Ramirez as the number 1 pick in this mock draft, he leaves me with a very easy decision. So, I am selecting Albert....errr......Matt Kemp. Ian's decision was based on position scarcity at SS, but I will go with Kemp who I think will become a 30-30 hitter in 2010.

I posted several articles on Kemp awhile back, and I am sticking with the Dodgers outfielder who has yet to reach his potential as a hitter. I see more power in him, and can see him becoming the number 1 pick in fantasy drafts come 2011. So, I will be early and take Kemp.

How many 30-30 hitters were there in 2009? One-Ian Kinsler. He went 31-86-31. But, his average was in the low .250's and he drove in only 86 runs. Kemp hit .297 and drove in 101, while hitting 26 HRs and stealing 34 bases.

Should Kemp go 30-100-30 in 2010, he may just be the best player in fantasy baseball.

Poll

Will Kemp go 30-30 in 2010?

Yes, his power is still growing.

62 votes

No, he will come up short in the power department once again.

29 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

he will go 30 30 for sure next year...

in the end of the season he was on a tear and i thought he actually might go 30 30 this season but he just fell short…

i wouldnt be suprised if he goes 33 home runs and 40 steals next year with 110 rbis because he is Finally gonna get a chance to bat in the MIDDLE OF the Order… last year he was 8th and 7th the whole season and still got 100 rbis… and 30 steals… now he will show off his skills in the middle of the order..

Watch out for matt kemp next season..

by matthewmafa on Nov 11, 2009 3:10 PM EST reply actions

I do think Kemp can go 30-30 but I still can’t see drafting him over Pujols. I’d feel totally comfortable taking Kemp 3rd, but taking him over Pujols or Hanley just isn’t something I can get behind.

by EverettCase on Nov 11, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions

Kemp

when Hanley went 30-30, he went #1 in alot of leagues, so why can’t Kemp? He is on the cusp of 30-30, and Matthewmafa makes a good point which I made awhile back, Kemp will hit in the middle of the Dodgers order in 2010, rather than the bottom 3rd.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 11, 2009 3:14 PM EST reply actions

he probably would have gone 30-30 if he hadn’t spent 69 games batting 7th and 8th. He’ll move up in 2010 and if healthy, will be a monster. He’s just turned 25 in September.

I LOVE Matt Kemp in fantasy, but wouldn’t pick him over Pujols, though. that’s just crazy.

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by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 11, 2009 3:27 PM EST reply actions

Position Req's?

How deep is this supposed league? A 12+-teamer with CI, MI, 5 OF, Util, and I see Pujols as the better pick. OF will be scarce, but having Pujols’ numbers with the possibility of adding another value 1B later on is too good to pass up.

12-team mixed league with 9/10 position players, though, I see this as much more defensible. Gives you a good 1B at pick #23/#26, and you get an OF that you have a lot of faith in. I’ll be interested in where you think Reyes will go this year. If healthy, and that’s a big if, he may be a huge steal a la Crawford this year.

by QuinnTheEzkamo on Nov 11, 2009 4:13 PM EST reply actions

Reyes

is not a 1st rounder for me. too much risk

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 11, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

I wrote an article on Reyes a while back

http://www.faketeams.com/2009/10/19/1092040/fantasy-baseball-the-avoid-list

When you have a guy who makes his living with his legs and has surgery on one of the most important parts of his leg, you can’t use your top draft pick and hope he will be fine at the beginning of the season. While I am not extremely worried about him, I am worried enough not to burn a top 1 pick on him. Let him cause someone else’s ulcer.

by Ian, yo on Nov 11, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

with all due respect...

this is beyond a horrible pick. I love Kemp, make no mistake, but this is a truly indefensible pick. The Hanley argument carries no weight because his position scarcity is what elevates more than the 30-30 potential. The problem isn’t so much Kemp as it is passing on Pujols.

Pujols has averaged 108 R, 39 HR, 118 RBI and a .337 average the last three years. Even if you generously lower the batting average threshold to .330, there have been just 17 such seasons since 1961. This is a clear case of trying to get too cute and passing the obvious best pick. Even the person picking first that took Hanley is pretty foolish for the same reason. Albert is far and away the #1 choice right now. Taking anyone else is throwing away value and saying to your league that you’re not REALLY interested in winning.

Again, this isn’t meant as a personal attack on your character or anything, it’s just a bad fantasy baseball move without question.

by psporer on Nov 12, 2009 11:50 AM EST reply actions

I disagree

psporer….if you take a look at 1B there are others who can get you 40-120-Howard, Prince, Teix. And OF isn’t as deep imo.
There aren’t too many 30-100-30-.300 guys running around out there.
Beyond horrible is a bit extreme, don’t you think? And I did defend my pick. But you are entitled to your opinion…..
Pujols is the safe pick…..Kemp offers 5 categories of stats (for 5×5 leagues) where Pujols does not.
There were 40 guys who hit more HRs than Kemp in 2009, and only 1 stole more than 30 bases and 8 of those guys stole 20 or more bases, but only Ryan Braun hit for a higher average than Kemp did. The list includes Kinsler, Utley, Reynolds, Cruz, Werth, Granderson and Tulo.
I like my pick.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 12, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

Not buying it.

Of course you like the pick, you made it. To say Kemp does five categories but Pujols doesn’t is just not true. 49 players hit for Kemp’s .297 or better last year, while 54 players stole Pujols’ 16 or better last year. If you’re counting Kemp’s average, you have to count Pujols’ speed. So now they’re both 5-category guys and Kemp has one win of the five. If Pujols steals 16 again, Kemp doesn’t sniff his jock for the #1 spot.

I’m not sure how you just lump Pujols in with 1Bs like all he does he hit for power. Pujols positively destroyed all three of those guys in batting average and runs scored last year. You have to look at the whole picture.

Again, it’s not a debate as to whether the pick was right or wrong. It was unquestionably wrong unless you have a crystal ball that says Pujols is going to fall off. You’re focused on a hypothetical line that Kemp has to hit while having several seasons of amazing production that Pujols HAS hit to work off of. As I said, I love Matt Kemp, but this is not a defensible move if you’re truly serious about winning.

I’m not trying to come across like a dick, though I’m not sure I’ve avoided such a fate, but there just isn’t any reason to make the pick. Even if I give you the never before hit by Kemp .300-30-100-30 line, and you compare it to Pujols’ 3-yr average of .337-39-118-8, you’re saying that 22 steals is worth giving up 37 points of average, 9 home runs and 18 RBIs. Even the biggest speed fanatic wouldn’t buy that. There were 34 guys that stole 22 or more bases last year, I’m sure one will make it to you in round 2.

You got stuck with 2nd pick and knew Kemp wasn’t going to make it to you so you had to take him if you wanted him, but that doesn’t make it a right or good pick.

Take care.

by psporer on Nov 12, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

SBs

22 SBs is probably worth a few points in the SB category, no?
I have done perfectly fine in my roto leagues over the years going against conventional wisdom, so I will continue to do so. Like I said, I would take Kemp with the first pick if I had it, and will do so in my only NL only snake draft in 2010 should I land the first pick.
The other question is how many 30-100-30-.300 guys will there be in 2010? If his name is Hanley Ramirez, I am sure he is the first pick in drafts in 2011. That’s been the case in the past.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 12, 2009 10:39 PM EST reply actions