Who Would You Rather Have: Shane Victorino or David Wright?

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 9, 2009 1:00 PM EDT in Baseball

Some people rely in last year's stats to project how a hitter will perform the following season. Others look at 3-year averages. I like to look at last year's stats and 2nd half stats to see if I can find anyone who is ready to outperform his draft ranking, or someone who will fall flat on his face.

When looking at the list of 20-20 hitters in the NL, I was shocked to see how close David Wright and Shane Victorino were across the board in 2009. Here are their 2009 stats:

Player	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
Wright, David 3B NYM	535	88	164	10	72	74	140	27	9	0.307	0.390	0.447
Victorino, Shane CF PHI	620	102	181	10	62	60	71	25	8	0.292	0.358	0.445

Who thought coming into 2009 that their stats would be so close....probably none. Wright obviously has the advantage in RBIs, SBs and average, but Victorino has the advantage in runs scored. But with Wright only hitting 10 HRs in 2009, his value has taken a big hit in my book. Others see him rebounding in 2010 in the power department. OK. How about clarifying by how much? I could see 20 HRs at the most from Wright in 2010, but that would not be my prediction for him,

Going into 2010 drafts, draft that top third baseman, think Reynolds or Zimmerman, early since the position will be thin in 2010, and then grab an OFer like Shane Victorino later in your draft should you need another SB guy.

Poll

Who would you draft first-Shane Victorino or David Wright?

The Flyin' Hawaiian-same value, several rounds later.

21 votes

Wright-the power will return to some extent.

59 votes

80 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Hmm

Interesting comparison.

I’m not entirley sold that David Wright will have a power suge next year or anything like that.

If you look at his HR splits, it’s pretty even: 5 HR before ASG, 5 after the ASG. 5 at home, 5 on the road.

Also, Wright is still hitting for a good average, and came just 1 double short of reaching 40+ doubles 6 years in a row. He also logged in 3 triples…. This tells me he’s making contact, hitting the ball in the gaps, but not getting it over the fences.

If Beltran and Reyes make it back, I could see Wright’s SB totals go down.

With Victorino, I feel like this is the best he can possibly do. He’s going to be 28-29, and is in one of the top lineups in baseball. He gets a lot of ABs with guys on, and there are good hitters behind him to drive him in. That helps his runs scored and RBI numbers. He also bats 2nd, which is a great spot to get a lot of pitches to hit.

I still would take Wright a round or two before Victorino because of the 3B drop off. Even last year, Wright was a top 5-6 3B, and I think something is to be said about position scarcity.

That said, I think people are going to be optomistic about him, he’s still a big name, and I could still see him going too high in drafts. I wouldn’t reach for him, but

Clone Chronicles

by Mark Kieffer on Oct 9, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions