Fantasy Baseball: NL Second Half Homerun Leaderboard

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 6, 2009 11:15 AM EDT in Baseball

I am starting my NL second half leaderboards with the power guys, the guys that help you in 4 categories with one swing of the bat. You can use these leaderboards to guesstimate how a hitter will do in 2010 by just doubling their power numbers in the list below.For example, Ryan Braun could easily fo 32-112 in 2010 based on his 16-56 second half power numbers.

Player	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Fielder, Prince 1B MIL	284	46	80	13	24	63	46	65	1	0.282	0.381	0.588
Howard, Ryan 1B PHI	287	52	87	17	23	75	35	85	4	0.303	0.380	0.617
Reynolds, Mark 3B ARI	257	43	66	13	20	40	32	103	9	0.257	0.344	0.541
Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS	268	52	78	15	19	54	35	49	2	0.291	0.370	0.582
Lee, Derrek 1B CHC	254	51	85	22	18	55	44	52	1	0.335	0.433	0.650
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL	263	53	90	14	17	56	34	49	9	0.342	0.419	0.627
Jones, Garrett 1B PIT	276	37	80	19	17	38	36	69	7	0.290	0.370	0.544
Holliday, Matt LF STL	271	54	97	21	16	66	29	45	5	0.358	0.419	0.627
Braun, Ryan J. LF MIL	308	52	100	20	16	56	21	53	13	0.325	0.374	0.565
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B SD	248	41	76	17	16	47	52	42	0	0.307	0.427	0.577
Werth, Jayson RF PHI	266	39	72	11	16	43	40	79	8	0.271	0.373	0.493
Pujols, Albert 1B STL	269	52	85	24	15	50	44	29	6	0.316	0.419	0.573
Kemp, Matt CF LA	285	49	76	13	15	51	18	63	15	0.267	0.311	0.477
Dunn, Adam LF WAS	245	39	65	13	15	43	49	80	0	0.265	0.395	0.502
Uggla, Dan 2B FLA	260	42	67	15	15	40	43	73	1	0.258	0.368	0.489
Gomes, Jonny LF CIN	192	27	48	10	15	35	15	57	2	0.250	0.310	0.537
Votto, Joey 1B CIN	269	49	81	24	14	43	43	65	2	0.301	0.400	0.547
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI	326	50	89	23	14	43	18	30	15	0.273	0.308	0.497
Pence, Hunter RF HOU	270	32	71	11	14	35	22	60	5	0.263	0.321	0.467
LaRoche, Adam 1B ATL	254	33	78	16	13	44	29	67	0	0.307	0.375	0.532

The Brewer's Prince Fielder appears to have quieted his dissenters with a huge 2009 season, going 46-141-.299-.412-.602-1.014. His power-filled season could lead to the Brewers dealing him in the off-season. Fielder's HR/FB% increased from 14.8% to 18.9% in 2009. He also increased his LD% from 17% to 20% in 2009. His HR/FB% and LD% for 2009 are very similar to his 2007 ratios when he hit 50 HRs.

Troy Tulowitzki also proved his doubters, including me, wrong with a strong 32-92-20-.297-.377-.552-.930 season. Amongst the shortstops in the NL, there is Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki, and then there is everyone else. Tulo has become an unheralded superstar in 2009, and that should continue into 2010, should he stay healthy. In comparing Tulo's ratio batting stats, one should compare his 2009 season to his 2007 season since he was injured in 2008. Tulo increased his HR/FB% from 9.7% to 15.1%, and his BB% from 8.4% to 11.6%.

And who expected the Cub's Derrek Lee to go 35-111-.306-.393-.579 after going 20-90 and 22-82 the last two years? Not me. And there were some people saying back in April that Lee was lost at the plate. Well, he certainly proved them wrong as well.

Poll

Will Troy Tulowitzki hit 30 HRs in 2010?

Yes, 2009 is what one whould expect from Tulo in 2010.

32 votes

No, remember Jimmy Rollins 2007 season?

20 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Half-Year Splits

As opposed to looking at half season stats, why don’t we instead just take this year’s whole stats and say that is what they will do next year. Or better yet, let’s take a three year weighted average with aging factor and project that as next years stats. Oh wait, those already exist.

Half year stats are almost never indicative of anything. They suffer from small sample size, arbitrary end points on data sets, and I believe it was the boys at Baseball HQ who found that outside of a few players (I’m looking at you LaRoche) such splits are not reliable.

by kellemonster on Oct 6, 2009 8:00 PM EDT reply actions

could be true

but I like to look at them going into each year’s draft to see if anyone stands out. I used “guesstimate” in my post, because that is exactly what any projection is. I like to look at Shandler’s book and a few others for projections, but I usually have my own idea-a rough estimate- of how a player will perform.
Second half stats can also tell you who underperformed and could be a player you may want to avoid in next year’s draft.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 6, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would you want to avoid guys with second half slumps when it’s been shown that it doesn’t mean anything?

by kellemonster on Oct 7, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

feel free

to go long Chipper Jones in 2010. And Andre Ethier’s strong 2nd half of 2008 (really two months) pushed me to buy him in the UBA league, and trade for him in another NL only auction league.

what stats have meaning to the kellemonster? serious question.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 7, 2009 12:39 AM EDT reply actions

Hmm, I’d like to qualify my argument then. If a guy is in serious decline or is in the middle of breaking out (like he’s been touted as always having potential and then finally shows it) in those cases, the most recent stats can have more meaning, but they also have to be taken into the larger narrative of stats. Example: Garrett Jones, I’m not buying him. Too old, long history of not being awesome. Although lets say that Big Papi had a reverse season of the one that he just had. Good first half, bad second, would we be right to say he’s done? Were we right to say that early on this year?

You can point to anecdotes, but the plural of anecdote is not data. How many times do you, or I, or anyone else look at how someone finished a season and make a prediction and do better (when we think someone is breaking out based on those stats) or worse (when we predict a decline) than if we just took ZIPS, CHONE, or even just Marcel.

What stats matter to me? Three year averages with an aging factor. As far as what I look for myself when I tweak projections include: Spd score rather than just SB, either incremental increases in BB%, drops in K% (leading as well to increases in BB/K), whether the changes in these stats are supported by changes in Plate Discipline numbers or might just be luck, what levels of BABIP they have achieved at different levels, what their xBABIP is on the Hardball Times calculator, whether any change in HR/FB rate is supported by their HitTracker home run numbers, fluctuation in ISO, I think that is about it.

But I’ll throw it back at you as well.

by kellemonster on Oct 7, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions