Fantasy Baseball: FIP Losers in 2010?

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 23, 2009 9:15 AM EDT in Baseball

Yesterday I posted an article discussing the pitchers with the best FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which aims to give fantasy/roto owners a clearer picture of how well, or not so well, a pitcher performed in 2009.

Today I give you the pitchers whose FIP was higher than their ERA in 2009, who could see their ERA's rise in 2010:

6.45

3.04

2.13

1.08

0.241

1.23

0.270

85.20%

2.93

4.33

-1.40

Kevin Millwood

5.57

3.22

1.73

1.18

0.258

1.34

0.279

78.60%

3.67

4.80

-1.13

Jair Jurrjens

6.36

3.14

2.03

0.63

0.235

1.21

0.273

79.40%

2.60

3.68

-1.08

Matt Cain

7.07

3.02

2.34

0.91

0.231

1.18

0.268

81.60%

2.89

3.89

-0.99

Bronson Arroyo

5.19

2.66

1.95

1.27

0.256

1.27

0.270

76.50%

3.84

4.78

-0.94

Randy Wells

5.66

2.5

2.26

0.76

0.261

1.28

0.294

76.00%

3.05

3.88

-0.83

John Danks

6.69

3.28

2.04

1.26

0.246

1.28

0.273

77.70%

3.77

4.59

-0.82

Rick Porcello

4.69

2.74

1.71

1.21

0.268

1.34

0.281

75.50%

3.96

4.77

-0.82

John Lannan

3.88

2.97

1.31

0.96

0.265

1.35

0.276

72.70%

3.88

4.70

-0.81

Ross Ohlendorf

5.55

2.7

2.06

1.27

0.249

1.23

0.265

76.30%

3.92

4.72

-0.80

Jarrod Washburn

5.11

2.51

2.04

1.18

0.244

1.19

0.257

75.40%

3.78

4.58

-0.80

Randy Wolf

6.72

2.44

2.76

1.01

0.227

1.10

0.257

77.30%

3.23

3.96

-0.72

Doug Davis

6.46

4.56

1.42

1.11

0.261

1.50

0.294

76.00%

4.12

4.84

-0.72

Trevor Cahill

4.53

3.63

1.25

1.36

0.269

1.44

0.276

72.60%

4.63

5.33

-0.70

Edwin Jackson

6.77

2.94

2.3

1.14

0.249

1.26

0.281

76.70%

3.62

4.28

-0.67

Johan Santana

7.88

2.48

3.17

1.08

0.249

1.21

0.296

78.00%

3.13

3.79

-0.66

Mark Buehrle

4.43

1.9

2.33

1.14

0.27

1.25

0.282

74.70%

3.84

4.46

-0.62

Felix Hernandez

8.18

2.68

3.06

0.57

0.229

1.14

0.289

76.70%

2.49

3.09

-0.60

Joe Saunders

4.89

3.1

1.58

1.4

0.278

1.43

0.290

73.50%

4.60

5.17

-0.57

Ted Lilly

7.68

1.83

4.19

1.12

0.232

1.06

0.270

77.80%

3.10

3.65

-0.55

The last column in this chart gives you the difference between the pitcher's ERA and FIP for 2009. As you can see, the Phillies J.A. Happ may have benefitted from an extreme LOB% of 85% this year. Looking at his peripherals, he gives up more than a HR/9 and his K/BB% is just over 2, which is good, but not great.

The Giants Matt Cain is another pitcher whose LOB% was over 80%, which is above AVG, so we can expect his ERA to rise in 2010. Cain benefitted from a reduced GB% and LD% in 2009, but his HR/FB% was the highest in his career. Something to watch in 2010.

The Braves Jair Jurrjens LOB% approached 80% as well, which is the highest of his young career so far. His 2009 FIP of 3.68 is exactly what his ERA was in 2008, so I would expect his ERA to rise in 2010.

A couple big name pitchers on this list to watch out for are the Mariners Felix Hernandez and the Mets Johan Santana.

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