I'm sure many of you drafted or picked up guys like Chris Carpenter and Pedro Martinez that were good buys and helped you in some way, shape or form. Here's a list of players I'll be avoiding for their draft positions.
1. Chris Carpenter- After having pitched 21.1 innings from 2006 to 2009, Carpenter threw 192.2 innings in 2009 and will likely win the Comeback Player of the year award with his Cy Young caliber season. I'm assuming Carpenter will be drafted in the top 10 of starting pitchers in 2010 and I'm just not willing to spend my pick on him. The Verducci Effect has been shot down recently but in the case of an very injury prone pitcher, I'm going to stand by it. I'd also like to mention that Carpenter has seen a spike in his fastball (which he throws 46.6% of the time) velocity from a career average of 91.6 to 93.0 in 2009. He's also throwing his slider harder (87.7 MPH) and quite a bit more frequently than his other full seasons (27.6 percent in 2009 when he averaged 11.3 in his healthy seasons prior to 2007.) If there's one player you want to avoid at his price, it'll likely be Chris Carpenter as the odds are definitely not in his favor regarding injury.
2. Vladimir Guerrero- He's the exact reason I'm writing this article right now. Seeing him hack at A.J. Burnett pitches bouncing four feet from home plate and completely whiffing on low 90's fastballs makes me angry and I'm not even an Angel's fan. According to his player page, he's 34 years old...Really? All of the signs pointing to a complete fall off are there for Vlad. He walked a career low 4.7% and had the lowest slugging percentage and OPS of his career. While his LD% is up a small amount, I just don't think he's got much left in the tank. Luckily, he won't be valued nearly as high as he has been in past years, but after watching him, he's one I will not be drafting in any round next year.
3. Jose Reyes- While I'll probably get belittled for this, I don't feel confident in drafting Reyes where he'll be drafted in 2010. Now, I'm guessing he'll be drafted in the 15-20 range in drafts in 2010 but I could be completely wrong on that one. Even if he's being drafted in that spot, people are hoping he's going to bounce back and they think they can get a discount. Reyes recently had scar tissue removed from his torn right hamstring tendon. He is really drafted based on his speed and if he has any kind of setback or has any rust to shake off, he could get off to a pretty slow start. I'm just not buying a guy who had scar tissue removed from the part of his body that matters most for his skillset.
I will continue, I just needed to get a little teaser up.