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Fantasy basketball - going old school, who's interested in help?




Ok so I have a couple days to kill.  Here is what this post is about- I used to be a big time fantasy basketball player and wrote freelance for Sportsline back in the day.  Anyway, the reason was because I invented this scheduling/scoring tool-chart I used which really enhanced a team's overall performance by taking advantage of players who had more games per week.  This will not work in a league where weekly averages are used- which kinda tells you how advantageous it can be.  Essentially, the tool takes advantage of a small sample size.  If team schedules were spread over, say, a 10 year period, it would be reasonable to expect the number of 4 game weeks to be about the same.  When the time period is only one season there is a great discrepancy in the number of 4 game weeks.  So this is great for points in roto, in head-2-head where weekly averages are not in the scoring mix and to make trades/pick ups or drafting.  Since most drafts are already completed the last category may be of little use.

 

If I could post a screenshot of an older pic of the chart I would but the images on this board can only be from hosted sites/url's.  My old pic is in pdf format and it would just be for getting an idea what it looks like.  

 

Anyway, things have changed a bit since I used this last- mainly that there are 30 teams now as opposed to 29 when I used this last. That could figure into the sample size discrepancy.  But if anyone is interested in me putting this thing together and then kinda breaking it down just let me know.  Maybe if it goes over well we could post it here in kinda a perma link for NBA fantasy?  I am game and bored so now's the time to ask. 

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Interesting

While I am playing FBkB this year and did a H2H last year, I am not a fanatic about it. Did this tool used to be more valuable when Sporting NEws/USA Today had theri salary cap leagues?

Another Q, I purchased the inaugural Basketball Prospectus 2009. Any idea how good it is for fantasy purposes?

by faketeams on Oct 15, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions  

+1 It seems bettter for H2H or for salary cap leagues

Like you’ve said above. I play roto fantasy basketball with start limits, which prevents users for loading up on guys too much (due to injuries and what not, typically loading up occurs down the stretch as guys jockey for those last couple of spots), so I guess it depends on what kind of league people are playing in.

My 2 cents on the Basketball Prospectus: it depends. What I like about Baseball Prospectus/Basketball Prospectus, sabermetrics/abprmetrics, is that while there are statsitical projections, I think it shows values (or overvalues) in players not seen using traditional statistics. For example, take someone like Shane Battier. He’s valuable in terms of win/losses and there’s metrics to back that up, but as a fantasy player he’s a 7 point, 5 rebound guy that probably isn’t owned in many leagues. I like these guides as they tell us just how good or bad a player/team are, and what makes a good team good (and a bad team bad).

by Mark Kieffer on Oct 15, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

pdf

any way to attach a pdf document or jpg in a thread here? If I could do that I could better explain the chart. If you played fantasy basketball a while back (like 7-8 years ago) you might recognize it. There are many copycats but they fail to explain things very well. Plus mine is color coded which makes finding patterns easier to recognize.

A drop down menu on a web site would help a lot with the chart.

by acr on Oct 15, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions  

salary cap

yes it was good for salary cap because back then Sporting News had a game that went on total weekly points, rebounds, etc but salaries were based on season averages from the year before IIRC. You could spot guys that had a ton of 3 game weeks throughout the season which really hurt their value. I always tried to get guys with 4 game weeks and then mixed in subs when their 2 game weeks popped up. You could pick up bench players weeks ahead of time because you could see their corresponding upcoming schedules. It was also great to make trades because you could unload a star player that finished the season with a bunch of 3 game weeks in a row.

On a funny note, rotonews or rotowire or whatever it was called then always copied my game schedule to their site and made it look like their own work. I always had teams in alphabetical order as it made them easier to spot for me. That’s the way they would list them too- to the T. I think one week I had a mistake about the number of games one team had- guess who also had the same mistake listed? It was kinda funny.

The drop down menu is needed to compare teams and also to be able to adjust for scoring formats that had different start days. Mine always started on Monday but some other leagues had scoring formats that started on Saturday, Wednesday, etc.

I always got a lot of flack back when I started about how the weekly schedule made no difference as the schedules would all even out over the course of a season. But some teams would have as many as 12-13 four game weeks while others would only have 8 or 9. In a 25 week schedule that could make a lot of difference. It was just the case of taking advantage of a small sample size. 29 teams playing also added to the mix as at least one team was off every night. For some reason the West Coast teams seemed to have more 4 game weeks, maybe that is different now.

by acr on Oct 15, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Assumption

Things even out if no one makes changes. Very faulty assumption.

When i played, I was too concerned with the cost of the weekly moves on my credit card. However, it was my 1st fantasy sports game ev er – the year Jordan unretired for the 1st time.

by faketeams on Oct 16, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Depends on how the league is set up

If there are start limits, or costs for transactions (like in your example), then this won’t help much. If they are unlimited, it can be helpful. I still like this better in a H2H or Salary Cap league, much less in Roto…

by Mark Kieffer on Oct 16, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

the above is from like the year 2000

that picture came from a magazine the chart was in- Fantasy Sports Magazine, a Krause product. Back in the day when there were 29 teams. The lock out killed fantasy basketball back then. I was told by Greg Ambrosius that Krause printed about 110,000 magazines that year and ended up trashing most- like 90k.

by acr on Oct 16, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Looks like

Someone already has a grid: http://givemetherock.com/2009/10/11/2009-10-fantasy-basketball-schedule-grid/

The file is actually blocked from my work so I can’t view it, but I assume it’s very similar.

by Mark Kieffer on Oct 16, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions  

yep kinda

The guy has a similar color coded grid with dates and teams by alphabet. But he misses the boat when he asks whether a consistent schedule or more extreme schedule is better. It would depend on the scoring structure but if it is weekly totals with no games limit then the extreme schedule is much better. Tha’s the reason for the chart in the first place- to manipulate the schedule because of its small sample size. The trick is to grab players early that have corresponding schedules. For instance, when your star players have 2 game weeks already have a mid tier player with a 4 game week to start. The only exception is superstars and there are only about a half dozen of those guys in the league.

But in total points leagues a good player that averages 20 points, 8 rebounds and has a ton of three game weeks is not much better than an average player who averages 15 points and 6 rebounds but has a lot of 4 game weeks. Their totals at the end of the week are about the same. That’s why drafting a star player with a lot of 3 games weeks can kill you- someone else can take a player a couple rounds later who will produce the same weekly totals.

And you can trade away guys who finish the season with a bad schedule. That’s just a few things off the top of my head. Except that with 30 teams the teams with 4 game weeks is not as volatile as it used to be.

by acr on Oct 16, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions  

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