Fantasy Baseball: Why Wins Are Impossible to Predict

by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 10, 2009 12:00 PM EDT in Baseball

I wrote several articles a little while back trying to find a method of predicting wins, but after looking at the NL wins leaders for 2009, you will agree with me, wins are IMPOSSIBLE to predict.

Let's take a look:

Player	INN	GS	QS	CG	W	L	S	K	BBI	HA	ERA	WHIP
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	233	34	25	1	19	8	0	212	66	216	2.63	1.21
Carpenter, Chris SP STL	193	28	22	3	17	4	0	144	38	156	2.24	1.01
De La Rosa, Jorge SP COL	185	32	17	0	16	9	0	193	83	172	4.38	1.38
Lincecum, Tim SP SF	225	32	26	4	15	7	0	261	68	168	2.48	1.05
Vazquez, Javier SP ATL	219	32	22	3	15	10	0	238	44	181	2.87	1.03
Johnson, Josh SP FLA	209	33	23	2	15	5	0	191	58	184	3.23	1.16
Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL	218	33	24	1	15	12	0	198	85	183	3.47	1.23
Pineiro, Joel SP STL	214	32	21	3	15	12	0	105	27	218	3.49	1.14
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN	220	33	23	3	15	13	0	127	65	214	3.84	1.27
Marquis, Jason SP COL	216	33	21	2	15	13	0	115	80	218	4.04	1.38
Lowe, Derek SP ATL	195	34	21	0	15	10	0	111	63	232	4.67	1.52

Coming into the 2009 season, who would have predicted 15 or more wins from all of the pitchers listed above barring Tim Lincecum and maybe Javier Vazquez, or Adam Wainwright?

Wainwright had 11 wins in 2008 in 20 starts and 130+ innings pitched. Knowing that he pitched for a Dave Duncan coached staff, you could make a case for him to win 15 games in 2009.

Lincecum won 18 games in 2008, so it wasn't a stretch for him to win 15 games in 2009. Plus he is the most dominant pitcher in the NL.

Javier Vazquez moved from the AL to the NL, so one could surmise he would pitch better in the NL and he did.

But the rest of these guys were probably drafted very late in most drafts. Chris Carpenter and Josh Johnson were drafted in the 9th and 10th rounds in my NL only snake draft. Ubaldo Jimenez was drafted around the 12th round.

Bronson Arroyo won 15 games? Bronson Arroyo? Seriously? Yes. If there was a Cy Young award winner based on 2nd half performance, Arroyo would have won it in a landslide. In 15 second half starts, he won 6, with an ERA of 2.24 and a WHIP of 1.043. He did this by increasing his K/BB ratio from 1.44 in the first half to 2.83 in the second half.

The Cardinals 3rd 15 game winner was Joel Pineiro, who came out of nowhere in 2009 to post his best season ever. He accomplished this by increasing his K/BB ratio from 2.3 to 3.8 and his GB/FB ratio from 1.69 to 2.26, and lowering his HR/FB% from 8.6% to 4.3% and his BB% from 5.4% to 3.1% in 2009.

Poll

Of the pitchers who won 15 or more games in 2009, who will duplicate the feat in 2010?

Lincecum-best pitcher in the game

58 votes

Josh Johnson-best pitcher no one hears about

4 votes

Ubaldo Jimenez-he will build on his breakout season in 2009

1 votes

Chris Carpenter/Adam Wainwright-as long as Dave Duncan stays in STL.

6 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Wainwright

If your poll would have just given a selection for Wainwright only I would have selected him as most likely to repeat 2009. But when you added Carp to the Wainwright option I went with Lincecum.

by acr on Oct 10, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

Good luck

Wow. I drafted 2 of the pitchers on the list (Wainwright and Ubaldo) and traded for 2 others (Lincecum and de la Rosa). Funny thing is I also had Cole Hamels. If you held your poll last year, Cole Hamels was the most likely winner (and would have had my vote).

I can’t even take credit for DLR. He was included as the back end of the trade by his owner who was fed up with his 6.42 ERA and 1 win at the time.

by Rad on Oct 10, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions