2009 Mock Fantasy Baseball Drafts: The Runs

by faketeams on Jan 9, 2009 1:31 PM EST in Baseball Comment 19 comments

I just completed my first mock draft of the 2009 fantasy baseball season. A few things stood out.

Once one of the Big Three aces comes off the board, the other two will quickly follow. Who are the Big 3? Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia.
As soon as one of the top catchers is selected, the remaining four will soon follow.
There isn't a ton of differentiation amongst the outfielders once the first few rounds are over.

FWIW, I had to check out of the draft after I selected 3B Adrian Beltre in the 14th round. Without queuing players according to preference, I ended up with a closerless squad and Pedro Sandoval way too early.

Pos Name       Team Pick
C   Joe Mauer    MIN R6 P2
C   Chris Iannetta    COL R13 P11
1B Adrian Gonzalez    SD   R3 P11
1B Pablo Sandoval    SF   R16 P2
1B James Loney    LA   R18 P2
2B Chase Utley    PHI R2 P2
2B Mark DeRosa    CLE R15 P11
SS Jimmy Rollins    PHI R1 P11
SS Jhonny Peralta    CLE R9 P11
3B Adrian Beltre    SEA R14 P2
OF Matt Kemp    LA   R4 P2
OF Jay Bruce    CIN R7 P11
OF Lastings Milledge   WAS R11 P11
OF Justin Upton    ARI R12 P2
SP Brandon Webb    ARI R5 P11
SP Scott Kazmir    TB   R8 P2
SP Matt Cain    SF   R10 P2
SP Wandy Rodriguez    HOU R17 P11
SP Johnny Cueto    CIN R19 P11
SP Justin Duchscherer OAK R20 P2
SP Jesse Litsch    TOR R21 P11
SP Jeff Francis    COL R22 P2
SP Hiroki Kuroda    LA   R23 P11

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Hmm..

IMO, CC is not a top 3 pitcher this season. He is going to be pitching against Tampa and Boston 3-5 times this season which will make him give up some runs. Not to mention, he will be pitching agains other well hitting teams in Texas, Chi Sox, and the Tigers. CC will have a ERA in the mid 3’s and have somewhere in between 15-20 wins due to strong run support. I feel Cole Hamels is due for a CY Young type season and Roy Halladay will put better numbers as well. Not to mention, 11 of Sabathias 17 starts in Milwaukee came against weak hitting teams (Cincy, Pitt, SD, Washington, and Atlanta).

Using the first rounder on J-Roll is a waste IMO. Even though the guy does everything (steal, hit, hit for power, drive in runs) you can get nearly the same production in Curtis Granderson in a later round, as they put up nearly the same numbers last season:
J Roll- 76 (runs) 154 (hits) 11 (Hr) 59 (RBI) 277 (BA) 349 (OBP) 47 (SB)
Granderson- 112 155 22 66 .280 .365 12 (SB)
Easily Compareable in every stat category except sb’s

Other options for do-it-all guys are Brandon Philips, Ian Kinsler, Russel Martin (especially if you miss out on Mauer), and even Nate Mclouth. All these guys shoud be available after the first round as well.

by chicity'sfinest on Jan 9, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nostaglia

I picked-up Phillips and Martin from the free agent pool in an NL-Only league and drafted Kinsler in an Al-only minor league draft. Even mcLouth I acquired pre-2008 for Aaron Rowand.

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by faketeams on Jan 9, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rollins

Because he plays SS, his stats are more valuable than an outfielder who almost matches him. The difference in SB is blown away different though. Also recall Rollins missed 25 games.

This takes nothing away from grnaderson, though. he increased his walks and decreased his Ks substantially over the past three seasons. He is a prime candidate to have Grady Sizemore-like breakout in 2009.

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by faketeams on Jan 9, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If thats the reason....

Then there are several other shorstop options that produce similar stats to J Roll:

Alexei Ramirex (Sleeper)- Playing in only 136 games (About same as J Roll), he had more RBI’s, HR’s, higher batting average, similar runs, and similar OBP. Thats nearly the same production and you can nab him in a later round. Also he hasnt peaked yet so dont expect a stat drop yet. J Roll peaked in his MVP season as someone already mentioned.

Yunel Escobar- Played in 136 games as well. Similar amount of hits, higher OBP, only one less HR from J Roll ( and J Roll plays in a hitters park, go figure), has a RBI more the J Roll, and higher batting average.

Even Jhony Pheralta, the guy you got in the 9th round, had similar stats to J Roll. Rollins is not worth the first round investment.

by chicity'sfinest on Jan 9, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rollins peaked?

he may have peaked, but not even Hanley has been able to duplicate Rollins 2007 season of 30-94-139-41. But, I don;t think Rollins 2008 season is a sign of a downfall in his production. CBS projects 20-75-110-40. Not bad for a SS.
Yunel will not steal 40 bases.

I would put money down that Rollins improves on his 2008 season this year. You are comparing Rollins down year to Ramirez, Escobar and Peralta.

raygu

by raygu on Jan 9, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not saying rollins will have a decining year

but he wont emulate his 07 season. Im just saying he isnt worth getting picked in the first round. I understand I was comparing all three of these guys to rollins off year, but they will still put similar numbers up as well. Cabrera and Escobar are still very young and have plenty of upside. You can cross Peralta off the comparisons since his playing time shoud die down since he will be sharing his SS spot with Asdrubal Cabrera now that Derosa is in town.

by chicity'sfinest on Jan 9, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what SS

will emulate Rollins 2007 season if Hanley hasn’t done it yet? No one.
Ok, in a mixed league, position scarcity takes on more meaning to me because you have alot more OFer, corner guys to choose from to fill those spots. Taking Rollins in the 1st isnt a bad call if you beleive he can go 20-40 with around 120 runs or so.

raygu

by raygu on Jan 9, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hanley hasn't touched his prime yet

So to say that because he hasn’t touched Rollins career year is akin to saying he won’t post a better season by the time he is 30……and I completely disagree with that assessment

by thomasps3 on Jan 9, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Not bad for a shortstop"

I will agree with that statement, and do not anticipate Rollins giving a 11 HR effort again this year. But to simply ignore Rollins v.2007, and especially in the 1st round, is just way, way, too risky for whjat should be the bedrock of your team.

In other words, would you select a guy who has a ceiling of .294 // 30 HR // 94 RBI // 41 SB // 139 Rs
and a floor of
.277// 11 HR // 59 RBI // 47 SB // 76 Rs

with your first round pick? Or would oyu select a guy who has a more consistent track record?

by thomasps3 on Jan 9, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree on the Rollins call

He had a career year in 2007, and you seem to think that at age 30, he will revert back to his career year. I have to disagree. The first round is a place for your foundation, and a guy who hits 11 Hr and has a .277 average is not the place for him, no matter what position he plays.

Guys I would’ve considered there include:
Grady Sizemore
Josh Hamilton
and possibly
Ryan Braun or Ryan Howard.

I do like the Utley pick, and somewhat makes up for the Rollins pick, who, in my estimation, is a mid 2nd round pick in a redraft league. Adrian Gonzalez will probably be dealt this year, so hope he goes to a contender that will help his RBI chances.

Also, was your omission of closers taking your theory from 2008 a step further, or just a lack of coffee when you were drafting?

by thomasps3 on Jan 9, 2009 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Closers

I went on autodraft after the 14th round without a list to pick from. Was going to grab at least one closer with every other pick from that point.

The three OF you mention were all on my want list at that point. All were taken. I decided to pass on Howard due to AVG.

Utley is going to be this year’s Pujols – a player who drops 7-10 draft spots thanks to injury concerns.

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by faketeams on Jan 9, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: Closers

I usually dont draft closers in the first 5-10 rounds since I know there will be a hidden gem of a closer that everyone will pass on and that I will add as soon as he starts producing. Last yr I added Joakim Soria in all my teams before anyone caught on to him and he got me 42 saves. In 2007 i did the same thing with Jose Valverde. I plan on doing the same thing this yr with Carlos Marmol.

Utley will go early in the second round, yes. Another player who shoud be passed on in the first round would be Carlos Quentin but it is tough to see him replicate his 08 season. I have usually drafted Matt Holliday early in many of my recent drafts and it has paid off, but I dont see him bringing in his old numbers in a pitcher friendly park.

A Gonzo was a decent pick and I dont see him flopping this yr as he is only 29, meaning he hasnt peaked yet. Also, A Gon will get RBI’s no matter what, whether he is playing for a contender or not. He had 119 RBI’s on a crappy Padres Team whie playing in a pitcher friendly park.

by chicity'sfinest on Jan 9, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marmol

I am not sure he is a hidden gem with Wood in Cleveland now. He has alot of value in a 5×5 league for his Ks.

raygu

by raygu on Jan 9, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

marmol

Im saying people will pass on Marmol this yr since this is his first year as a full time closer (he filled in as closer last season when wood got hurt). I could see him being availabe in a late round. People will draft papebom, rivera, nathan, soria, jenks, wood, jenks, bj ryan, valverde, hoffman, lidge, brian wilson, wagner, fuentes (especially since now that he is on the anges which means he will get plenty of save opps. since anges usually lead games by 2-3 runs heading into the ninth), and takashi saito before the draft marmol.

by chicity'sfinest on Jan 9, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so....

the first 10 picks were-Hanley, Arod, Pujols, Reyes, Wright, Sizemore, Hamilton, Braun, MCab, Tex???
I don’t think Rollins in the 1st is a stretch due to the scarcity. I just saw Rollins picked in a 5×5 mock on CBS Sportsline.

raygu

by raygu on Jan 9, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Utley a 2nd-rounder? Hmm.

by Misfit74 on Jan 10, 2009 1:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Too high?

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by faketeams on Jan 10, 2009 7:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sandoval

Though I like your two Catchers, Mauer and Ianneta, you are underestimating Pablo Sandoval. You underestimate him so much he called him ‘Pedro’. Pablo has a short career, just turned 21, but batted .340 in a 1/3 of a ML season and is currently destroying Winterball, .396/.449/.677. Production even close to this with C, 1B, 3B eligibility is what I call value. I’ll be looking for Pablo in Round 10-11.

Article about Pablo’s Winterball exploits http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1984

by world wide suicide on Jan 13, 2009 9:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs