Fantasy Baseball: Top 20 NL Starting Pitchers
by Ray Guilfoyle on Jan 27, 2009 3:00 PM EST
in Baseball
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There are many different ways to evaluate a starting pitcher such as number of quality starts, % of quality starts, K's/9, Wins, ERA, WHIP, but the one stat that appears to predict success is a pitchers Command. Here I am using a slight variation to Ron Shandler's Command ratio of K/BB. Instead I used (K-BB)/9. Below I give a list of the top 20 NL-only starting pitchers based on their 2008 Command ratio.
| Pitcher | W | K | BBI | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | CMD |
| Harden, Rich | 10 | 181 | 61 | 2.07 | 1.06 | 11.01 | 3.71 | 7.30 |
| Lincecum, Tim | 18 | 265 | 84 | 2.62 | 1.17 | 10.51 | 3.33 | 7.18 |
| Haren, Dan | 16 | 206 | 40 | 3.33 | 1.13 | 8.58 | 1.67 | 6.92 |
| Johnson, Randy | 11 | 173 | 44 | 3.91 | 1.24 | 8.46 | 2.15 | 6.31 |
| Nolasco, Ricky | 15 | 186 | 42 | 3.52 | 1.1 | 7.89 | 1.78 | 6.10 |
| Rodriguez, Wandy | 9 | 131 | 44 | 3.54 | 1.31 | 8.59 | 2.88 | 5.70 |
| Hamels, Cole | 14 | 196 | 53 | 3.09 | 1.08 | 7.76 | 2.10 | 5.66 |
| Peavy, Jake | 10 | 166 | 59 | 2.85 | 1.18 | 8.60 | 3.06 | 5.54 |
| Santana, Johan | 16 | 206 | 63 | 2.53 | 1.15 | 7.91 | 2.42 | 5.49 |
| Billingsley, Chad | 16 | 201 | 80 | 3.14 | 1.34 | 9.01 | 3.59 | 5.43 |
| Lilly, Ted | 17 | 184 | 64 | 4.09 | 1.23 | 8.09 | 2.81 | 5.28 |
| Volquez, Edinson | 17 | 206 | 93 | 3.21 | 1.33 | 9.46 | 4.27 | 5.19 |
| Johnson, Josh | 7 | 77 | 27 | 3.61 | 1.35 | 7.94 | 2.78 | 5.15 |
| Oswalt, Roy | 17 | 165 | 47 | 3.54 | 1.18 | 7.12 | 2.03 | 5.09 |
| Sheets, Ben | 13 | 158 | 47 | 3.09 | 1.15 | 7.17 | 2.13 | 5.04 |
| Harang, Aaron | 6 | 153 | 50 | 4.78 | 1.38 | 7.47 | 2.44 | 5.03 |
| Dempster, Ryan | 17 | 187 | 76 | 2.96 | 1.21 | 8.14 | 3.31 | 4.83 |
| Webb, Brandon | 22 | 183 | 65 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.27 | 2.58 | 4.68 |
| Sanchez, Jonathan | 9 | 157 | 75 | 5.01 | 1.45 | 8.94 | 4.27 | 4.67 |
| Cueto, Johnny | 9 | 158 | 68 | 4.81 | 1.41 | 8.17 | 3.52 |
4.66 |
You can see for the most part that all of these pitchers put up solid ERA and WHIP ratios, with the exception of Aaron Harang, Jonathan Sanchez and Johnny Cueto.
Some of the names on this list won''t be drafted in the first 10 rounds of most drafts, but there could lie some value if taken in later rounds. In roto leagues, Wandy Rodriguez, Johnny Cueto and Jonathan Sanchez probably can be bought for less than $7-10, but could produce double that in value.
On Wednesday, I will post the Bill James projections for each of these pitchers.
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Argument against taking pitchers early
This is the type of skills analysis that supports the fantasy expert advice to shy away from usign early picks on starting pitchers. Why pass up Curtis Granderson for Roy Halladay in the 5th when you can have Nolasco in the 10th?
by faketeams on Jan 28, 2009 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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