I have always been a big believer in drafting running backs with your first four picks.  Since there are always quality quarterbacks available in the middle rounds, I have never seen a reason to draft a quarterback before round five.  This is the year I’m changing my mind, this year I’m taking a quarterback early.  Possibly very early.

I think either of the quarterbacks here in Tier 1 can be taken in the first two rounds of your fantasy football draft.  Exactly where they should go depends on the details of your league size and scoring, but if you have either of these guys on your team at the start of round three you’re in good shape.  In alphabetical order (and yes, there are only two):

Tom Brady, NE -  Brady had probably the greatest season in the history of fantasy football last year.  How do you draft a guy like that?  Taking him in the top four picks would be a mistake, but drafting him in the first round would not be.  There’s good news and bad news for Tom (and potential Tom owners) this year.   The bad news is that every coach in the league has spent six months reviewing the way the Giants stopped him in the Super Bowl.  The good news is that few teams have the personnel to actually do it.  Will Brady throw for 4800+ yards again?  No.  Will he throw 50 TDs again?  No.  In most fantasy leagues, is he better than nearly every single running back out there? Yes.  Still don’t believe me?  Then how about the fact the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the league  this year – with their opponents having an absurdly weak .387 winning percentage.

Peyton Manning, Ind – People are worried about his bursa sac and about Marvin Harrison’s injuiries/gun issues and about…look, none of it matters.  Manning’s knee will be fine.  He doesn’t need training camp -- trust me, he knows the offense.  He doesn’t need Marvin Harrison; the Colts won last season without him.  Anthony Gonzalez will more than pick up the slack at WR and Dominic Rhodes (who caught 36 passes during his final year in Indy) is back to increase the options out of the backfield.  The Colts have the second toughest schedule in the league this year, but they had the fifth-toughest schedule last year and still won 13 games.  In Peyton Manning’s ten-year career, where does 2007 rank in terms of passing yards?  Eighth.  I think Manning is going to rebound this season and with all the questions surrounding him, he could be a (relative) steal.