Most Surprising 1st Half Pitchers

by faketeams on Jul 16, 2008 8:00 AM EDT in Baseball Comment 6 comments

Just as there were surprise hitters at the half way point, there are surprise pitchers. These are a little more well known given the attention given to them at the All-Star Game. Is there anyone who doesn't think the American league starting pitcher for the game, Justin Duchscherer, isn't the most surprising pitcher of the first half? Who doesn't think he isn't followed closely by fellow All-Stars Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez?

But I want to name a few lesser recognized surprises on the mound. These are relievers who have racked-up Wins despite making no starts. For many of these guys, there was no reason to think they'd have any value whatsoever. I have also included a teammate of each who has likely garnered more interest.

1. Jamey Wright, Texas Rangers: 6W, 1SV, 4.39 ERA in 53.1 IP
    Starting Teammate: Kevin Millwood: 6W, 5.11 ERA in 100.1 IP
2. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres: 6W, 2.15 ERA in 50.1 IP
    Starting Teammate: Randy Wolf, 4W, 4.66 ERA in 114 IP
3. Ron Mahay, Kansas City Royals: 5W, 1.84 ERA in 49 IP
    Starting Teammate: Gil Meche, 6W, 4.71 ERA in 120.1 IP
4. Joel Hanrahan, Washington Nationals: 5W, 4.01 ERA in 58.1 IP
    Starting Teammate: Odalis Perez, 2W in 17 starts
5. Matt Guerrier, Minnesota Twins: 5W, 3.35 ERA in 51 IP
    Starting Teammate: Glenn Perkins, 6 W, 4.14 ERA in 78.1 IP

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Heath Bell?

Yesterday I suggested Adrian Gonzalez is a surprising hitter this year due to the circumstances surrounding his improbable success, and the retort was “he went 30/100 last year” – surprise is defined by previous season compared to current season, apparently.

Heath Bell is on pace to virtually duplicate last season:

2007 : 93.1ip, 6 Wins, 102 K, 30 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
2008: 100.2ip, 12 wins, 84 K, 26 BB, 2.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

brute force projection, just doubling his current numbers

Yes, the 12 wins would be insane – he’s a reliever, he’s just gotten lucky a few times (not to mention, the Padres starting rotation has been horrible). He won’t get 12 wins.

Since we’re apparently disregarding the circumstances around a player/team and only looking at previous year / this year comparisons, and Adrian hitting 22/71 in 95 games versus 30/100 in all 161 games last year ISN’T surprising, how are Heath Bell’s nearly identical numbers surprising this year?

In protest of adulthood

by Bradicus on Jul 16, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wins as RP versus More popular SP on same team

Fake Teams - a proud member of the SB Nation

by faketeams on Jul 16, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Sorry, I don’t understand the response :)

In protest of adulthood

by Bradicus on Jul 16, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To quote a noy so wise man

“But I want to name a few lesser recognized surprises on the mound. These are relievers who have racked-up Wins despite making no starts. For many of these guys, there was no reason to think they’d have any value whatsoever. I have also included a teammate of each who has likely garnered more interest.

Fake Teams - a proud member of the SB Nation

by faketeams on Jul 16, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ahh - sure, but...

Ahh – sure, given the restriction to looking at those who have “racked up wins despite making no starts,” I agree of course. Apologies for not keeping that in mind before.

However, Bell’s fantastic numbers last year indicate that – even as a reliever who doesn’t get saves – there is reason to think he may have some value. I actually have him in a fairly deep league now, and his numbers are helpful (even without the wins). It’s also a keeper league, so when Trevor Hoffman retires at the end of the season, Bell is probably right in line for that job. Of course, even the best closer in SD might not have much value ;)

In protest of adulthood

by Bradicus on Jul 16, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs