Adrian Peterson.  Ah, Adrian Peterson.  So what do I think about Adrian Peterson?

I think anybody who takes him in the top four or five overall is taking a big risk.   There are several reasons for this, so let me touch briefly on each of them…in haiku!

Passing game quite bad

Why are eight men in the box?

Tarvaris Jackson

You don’t need to be a Patriots staffer to predict that defenses are going to key on the running game if the passing game doesn’t present a threat.  Bobby Wade?  Bernard Berrian?  Sidney Rice is an up-and-coming WR, but that’s about it this season.  Stop Peterson and you stop the Vikings.  I’m not the only one to see this.

Too many injuries

Chester Taylor takes the ball

Right at playoff time!

Peterson had a history of injuries in college, and missed two games last season with Chester Taylor rolling up a combined 241 rushing yards in those two games.  The coaching staff knows that Taylor can get the job done, so there’s less reason to risk breaking Peterson when he’s healthy, and no reason to risk breaking him if he has a nagging injury.  Peterson slowed down noticeably at the end of 2007, finishing with a 3.8 yard per carry average in his five December games.

Painful boom or bust

With three hundred yards or three

I can’t count on that

Peterson was the ultimate boom or bust running back last season, with an amazing 30 carry, 296 rushing yard game against the Chargers and a horrifying 14 carry, 3 rushing yard game against the Niners.  In fact, Peterson’s two biggest games made up a whopping 39% of his yearly rushing yardage and half of his rushing TD total.  If you like to live dangerously like this, then fine, but I value consistency a bit more. 

Peterson is a solid Tier 2 RB right now and a definite first rounder, but I’m not going to take him in the top five.