Mid-Season BABIP Leaders & Laggards

by faketeams on Jul 1, 2008 1:17 PM EDT in Baseball

I haven't BABIPed in a while, but the mid-point of the season is a good time to do so. Given the leaders in BABIP over the last few seasons have not been below .270, I am secure in saying the Leaders will see worse BABIPs over the remiander of the year.

What makes BABIPing more interesting is the AL has surpassed the NL in SLG with two-and-a-half weeks of interleague play obscuring that fact. Eight of the Top 10 BABIP leaders are in the AL. Now that they do not face the NL, will these pitchers finally get the pummelling from the AL hitters that their BABIPs signal they should?

Last night, Justin Masterson allowed four runs in six IP. His hits were OK, but the walks and HRs will be his undoing. Ironically, allowing walks and HRs keeps his BABIP low because walks are not included in the calculation and HRs are subtracted from the numerator and denominator. Armando Galarraga gave up nine hits in six innings, and Gavin Floyd would have fared worse but for an unearned run allowed.

The Laggards are a different story because I am not convinced pitchers who are getting whacked regularly will keep their rotation spot despite being unlucky by BABIP standards. While performances look good with lucky BABIP, unlucky ones force people to disbelief their lying eyes. Stats have come a long way in baseball, but I am not sure they have come so far as to eliminate the human element. Does anyone think that Eric Wedge will keep sending Jeremy Sowers to the mound because he knows his BABIP luck is about to turn?

BABIP Leaders:

NAME	TEAM	K/9	BB/9	BABIP
Justin Masterson	BOS	6.9	4.9	0.206
Gavin Floyd	CHA	5.9	3.3	0.22
Shaun Marcum	TOR	7.8	2.5	0.228
Armando Galarraga	DET	6	3.3	0.228
Justin Duchscherer	OAK	5.8	1.9	0.229
John Lackey	ANA	7.1	1.7	0.235
Cole Hamels	PHI	7.7	2.3	0.243
Scott Olsen	FLO	4.9	3.4	0.243
Joe Saunders	ANA	4.5	2.5	0.246
Tim Wakefield	BOS	6.1	3.7	0.246

BABIP Laggards:

NAME	TEAM	K/9	BB/9	BABIP
Ian Snell	PIT	6.7	5.1	0.385
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	8.5	3.4	0.372
Pedro Martinez	NYN	6.2	3.3	0.369
Jeremy Sowers	CLE	4.4	3.1	0.363
Kevin Millwood	TEX	6.4	3.3	0.359
Livan Hernandez	MIN	3.2	1.6	0.354
Andrew Miller	FLO	6.9	3.9	0.354
Randy Johnson	ARI	8.3	2.6	0.35
Jorge De La Rosa	COL	9.5	3.5	0.349
Mike Pelfrey	NYN	5	4.3	0.344
Barry Zito	SFN	5.3	5.6	0.344
Javier Vazquez	CHA	8.8	2.7	0.341
Andrew Sonnanstine	TBA	5.9	1.7	0.341
Nate Robertson	DET	6.2	2.6	0.341