Why Fantasy Experts Do Not Win
by faketeams
on Jun 30, 2008 11:50 AM EDT
in Baseball
Last Thursday, Matthew Bery made an admission on ESPN's Fantasy Focus podcast that you don't hear very often in the world of fantasy punditry. He stated flat out that most fantasy players would beat him if he joined their league.
This may seem contradictory. How could a Regular Joe beat the head of fantasy sports for the hegemonic ESPN? Very easily said Mr. Berry. That Regular Joe only has to concentrate on his team while the fantasy expert has to focus on covering all of the teams and players and has to provide information about them for the Regular Joe to consume.
I'll take that somewhat further. The Regular Joe does not make his fantasy strategies available to the other teams in his league like the fantasy expert does. Nor does he announce his lists of sleepers, duds and breakout players for all to read.
Mr. Berry spent the off-season screaming that he thought Saves were not worth paying for. Assuming he is correct, then how can he execute that belief in his leagues without others doing the same resulting in everyone wating on saves and likely driving the price up? Or having others grab closers right before Mr. Berry's selections just to thwart him?
If you think a fantasy expert can announce all his or her strategies about the game whilst his/her competitors keep theirs to themselves and still win, then...Geez, does anyone even think that can happen?
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Why Fantasy Experts Do Not Win
It’s like telling the hitter what the next pitch is and expecting to still strike him out!!!
Bob (5150bosox)
by 5150bosox on Jun 30, 2008 4:40 PM EDT 0 recs
Yes
Very true because sometimes the hitter knows what’s coming and still misses. That is when the fantasy expert wins the league.
In my AL-Only, one team sniped I stopped winning once I started blogging at Fake Teams.
by faketeams on
Jun 30, 2008 4:44 PM EDT
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A little
egomanical, don’t you think? I mean, assuming that the expert not only has:
A. The best strategy, or at the very least a sound one
and
B. A little bit of luck
Theuy should have just as much a chance as any other joe schmo. I guess I would frame it in this context:
Owners in a draft/auction scenario don’t really think about what others are doing unless thwy are of the weakminded variety, which I may certainly be one of, however, in money keeper leagues one would think the vast majority of owners are more wise to what they want to accomplish, and not monitoring what other teams are actively doing…..
by thomasps3 on Jul 1, 2008 9:51 AM EDT 0 recs
Luck
Assuming each team has a close-enough strategy, luck is all that remains.
by faketeams on
Jul 1, 2008 10:49 AM EDT
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Egomaniacal?
How many leagues do you compete in? How much time in your day is spent analyzing 300 players, plus injuries, bench players, minor leaguers etc? Just curious. Most experts play in a dozen plus leagues…it goes with the territory
It’s a lot easier to think objectively when you are analyzing things from a third-party perspective. But when we are digging into our own teams, the same prejudices arise as anyone else. Objectively I might say that AJ Pierzynski is a great catcher in AL only leagues, but subjectively if I think he is a jerk, I might not draft him at value…and that’s bad for me as a player
Managing Partner, www.RotoExperts.com
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by jammerjoe on Jul 2, 2008 4:39 PM EDT 0 recs
Experts
I try to share everything I think of including my strategies. I don’t think fantasy sites can thrive if the writers do not. This defintiely has a negative effect for the writer though.
What if one of the teams in his or her league was going to use the same strategy but changed it as a result? What if the ensuing discussion on the strategy uncovered tweaks to the strategy that otherwise would have been unknown?
The vast, vast majority of fantasy players do not publicly declare their strategies. The experts do and this puts them at a disadvantage.
by faketeams on
Jul 3, 2008 11:28 AM EDT
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