Buying High: Hitters Or Pitchers

With the recent news that Toronto Blue Jays' SP Shaun Marcum is suffering form nothing more than an elbow strain, I could begin to re-contemplate a trade offer I received just days before Marcum's disabling occurred. In an AL-Only 4x4 keeper league, I was offered Marcum in exchange for Red Sox 1B Kevin Youkilis.

I was favorably disposed to it based on comments I have heard that Marcum is for real. This went against my hesistance to acquire pitchers who come out of nowhere. Marcum's BABIP of .228 scares me into thinking I will be dealing a .300/25/100 hitter just as the pitcher blows-up.

Then Marcum was sent to the D.L., and A's RHP Justin Duchscherer wins his 8th game. I receive an offer of Duichscherer for Youkilis. Duchscherer has a less scary BABIP of .242 but has won 66% of his starts. If I need Wins, am I going to get Duchscherer right before he blows-up and stops getting Wins?

Those worries are exercerbated by Duchscherer's sub-90s fastball.  Can a right-handed pitcher with an unimpressive fastball continue to pitch like Pedro Martinez in his glory days?  Nevermind, Duchscherer's injury history.

Here are the stats of the three players with Ks and Runs struck through because this is a 4x4 league.  Am I over-thinking?  Too cautious?  Have I been indoctrinated by the mutual funds mantra that past results are no guarantee of future ones?