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Buying High: Hitters Or Pitchers

With the recent news that Toronto Blue Jays' SP Shaun Marcum is suffering form nothing more than an elbow strain, I could begin to re-contemplate a trade offer I received just days before Marcum's disabling occurred. In an AL-Only 4x4 keeper league, I was offered Marcum in exchange for Red Sox 1B Kevin Youkilis.

I was favorably disposed to it based on comments I have heard that Marcum is for real. This went against my hesistance to acquire pitchers who come out of nowhere. Marcum's BABIP of .228 scares me into thinking I will be dealing a .300/25/100 hitter just as the pitcher blows-up.

Then Marcum was sent to the D.L., and A's RHP Justin Duchscherer wins his 8th game. I receive an offer of Duichscherer for Youkilis. Duchscherer has a less scary BABIP of .242 but has won 66% of his starts. If I need Wins, am I going to get Duchscherer right before he blows-up and stops getting Wins?

Those worries are exercerbated by Duchscherer's sub-90s fastball.  Can a right-handed pitcher with an unimpressive fastball continue to pitch like Pedro Martinez in his glory days?  Nevermind, Duchscherer's injury history.

Here are the stats of the three players with Ks and Runs struck through because this is a 4x4 league.  Am I over-thinking?  Too cautious?  Have I been indoctrinated by the mutual funds mantra that past results are no guarantee of future ones?

HitterHRRBIAVGSBR
Kevin Youkilis 13 47 .305 3 47
PitcherWERAWHIPSVK
Justin Duchsherer 8 1.99 0.97 0 51
Shaun Marcum 5 2.65 1.00 0 86

Poll
What side would you rather have?
Kevin Youkilis over either pitcher
20 votes
Shaun Marcum over Youkilis
10 votes
Justin Duchscherer over Youkilis
21 votes
In 4x4, the hitter
3 votes
In 5x5, the starting pitcher
5 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 9 comments

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Duchscherer for Youk should be a no brainer for you…he is a very good pitcher, always has been just not able to stay healthy. Obviously that is still a concern but Youk has been banged up a bit lately too and has a history of 2nd half fades.

by DB11 on Jun 25, 2008 1:40 PM EDT   0 recs

Duch

I hope the Wizard has more than one brain. otherwise, I’m going to have to figure out a way to beat Dorothy and Crew there.

by faketeams on Jun 25, 2008 2:18 PM EDT   0 recs

no idea

what the hell that means

by DB11 on Jun 25, 2008 2:42 PM EDT   0 recs

Thought this was pertinent

alf (bar review): Nate- What are the chances of Justin Duchsherer continuing to be a top starter?

Nate Silver: The thing with Duchscherer is that a 1.99 ERA isn’t anywhere near being supported by his peripherals. But the basic template we’ve seen this year - a #2 starter who has an above-average number of injury problems - is perfectly sustainable.

Where does that put him in terms of value? On a bad team, 14 Ws, on a good team, 16-19 Ws, if oyu are buying the hype and the arm is good for the rest of the season…

by thomasps3 on Jun 25, 2008 3:37 PM EDT   0 recs

Not in the Powers family

Unlike Mr. Silver, Nigel Powers isnt’ lovin’ the Duch.

by faketeams on Jun 25, 2008 3:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

still have no clue

what the wizard of oz has to do with anything

by DB11 on Jun 25, 2008 3:49 PM EDT   0 recs

Always take the hitter...

...as good hitters, especially veterans, continue to hit consistently from season to season. Pitchers, on the other hand, can have a Cy Young season one year, and a Sy Goldberg (Who?) season the next year. If the roto league is a keeper league, then this is even more of a no-brainer. At the same time, it all depends on your needs. If you’re killing in power stats and desperate for pitching stats, then I am more concerned about what I’m getting than what I’m giving up. For what it’s worth, I came in second in my 10 team AL 5×5 league last year and am in last place this year!? However, while a couple of other guys at the bottom of the standings have bagged it for this year, I’m still convinced that I can get in the money with a strong second half and return from injuries by some of my key players. Want some of my kool-aid?

Rexx

by Rexx on Jun 26, 2008 9:11 AM EDT   0 recs

Already got some

I am in a similar situation with Paul Konerko and David Ortiz on the DL. It is very hard to believe all the undrafted SP in the AL without good peripheral stats will continue to be the most valuable pitchers in the league.

by faketeams on Jun 26, 2008 10:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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