Joba Chamberlain: An Elite Starting Pitcher?

by faketeams on Jun 21, 2008 1:15 PM EDT in Baseball

On yesterday's ESPN Fantasy Focus 20080620 (click to open in your media player), hosts Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz asked each other whether the other thought New York Yankees' ace-in-the-making Joba Chamberlain was a Top 20 starting pitcher in the American League. Both equivocated on whether they would rather have Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels starting pitch Joe Saunders or Joba Chamberlain for the rest of the season. As a result, they could not declare Joba Chamberlain in the Top 20 of AL starting pitchers.

I thought the answer to that question was very easy. Yes, Chamberlain is a Top 20 starting pitcher in the AL. The question should have been Top 10. To reign in my enthusiasm, I looked at the top VORPs in the AL for starting pitchers to get an idea of who has been doing the best so far this season. FWIW, Joba' VORP ranks him 27th so far. That is ahead of C.C. Sabathia (11.5) and Gavin Floyd (11.4).

Here are the Top 14 starting pitchers in the AL by VORP along with H/9, K/9 and BABIP to add some context to the VORP stat which is cumulative.

NAME	TEAM	H9	SO9	BABIP	VORP
Cliff Lee	CLE	8.28	7.43	0.3oo	30
Shaun Marcum	TOR	6.57	7.84	0.228	29.5
Roy Halladay	TOR	8.16	7.3	0.291	27.2
John Danks	CHA	8.52	6.85	0.293	26.1
Felix Hernandez	SEA	8.27	7.93	0.306	23.8
Ervin Santana	ANA	7.39	8.0	0.269	23.8
Zack Greinke	KCA	8.19	6.66	0.266	23.1
Scott Kazmir	TBA	5.91	9.75	0.257	22.3
Jon Lester	BOS	8.41	5.79	0.283	21.8
Jose Contreras	CHA	8.01	5.25	0.273	21.6
Joe Saunders	ANA	7.95	4.4	0.247	21.3
Justin Duchscherer	OAK	6.62	6.23	0.246	21
John Lackey	ANA	6.75	6.75	0.246	20.5
Rich Harden	OAK	6.86	10.98	0.292	19.8
Joba Chamberlain	NYA	6.86	10.5	0.300	12.1