I saw this question on another board a before the season started and I predicted 78 wins.  The question came back up a couple days ago and many people were adding 4-6 wins to their previous total.  I am sticking with 78 and here's what I posted explaining why:  

  "I'm sticking with 78 wins. I liked the Villone signing when it happened. It was a move that did not get much notoriety but looks like it could pay off well.

Let's take a look at the starting pitching we have faced thus far-

Game 1- rainout
Game 1 (official)- Kip Wells Loss
Game 2- Aaron Cook Win
Game 3- Ubaldo Jiminez Win
Game 4- Odalis Perez Win
Game 5- Matt Chico Win
Game 6- John Lannan Win
Game 7- Wandy Rodriguez Loss
Game 8- Shawn Chacon Win
Game 9- Chris Sampson Win
Game 10- Kevin Correia Loss
Game 11- Barry Zito Win
Game 12- Matt Cain Win
Game 13- Tim Lincecum Loss
Game 14- Dave Bush Win
Game 15- Carlos Villanueva Win
Game 16- Manny Parra Loss
Game 17- Matt Cain Win
Game 18- Tim Lincecum Loss
Game 19- Jonathon Sanchez Loss
Game 20- Carlos Villanueva Win
Game 21- Manny Parra Loss
Game 22- Ian Snell Loss
Game 23- Tom Gorzelanny Win
Game 24- Shawn Chacon Loss
Game 25- Roy Oswalt Win
Game 26- Brandon Backe Win
Game 27- Bronson Arroyo Loss
Game 28- Johnny Cueto Win
Game 29- Aaron Harang Win
Game 30- Rich Hill Win

So of our 19 wins, about five have come against pretty good/top pitchers. Of our eleven losses four have come against top pitchers. In all though, that means we have had 9 games against pretty good starting pitchers and 21 pretty bad ones. I don't think we could have asked for a better schedule.

Of those 9 games against pretty good pitchers, a 5-4 record is not bad. How have we played in those 9 games?

John Lannan game 6 3-0 win
Matt Cain game 12 8-7 win
Tim Lincecum game 13 4-7 Loss
Matt Cain game 17 11-1 Win
Tim Lincecum game 18 0-3 loss
Ian Snell game 22 4-7 loss
Roy Oswalt game 25 4-3 win
Bronson Arroyo game 27 3-4 loss
Aaron Harang game 29 5-2 win

Of course, the bad part of the 9 starts above is that none of them were against a team with a winning record. And the combined records of the teams we have played is now 90-117, before the Cubs series. And of the 21 games against the rest of the starters we are 14-7. That's not bad.

Those nine starts above were against the top seven pitchers we have faced this year. But how have those seven pitchers faired overall thus far in 2008? They have a combined 4.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. And that is despite Tim Lincecum who is having an outstanding year (we are 0-2 against him).

But it also says that of our 30 games this season, only six have been against teams with a .500+ record. And in those games- five against the Brewers and one against the Cubs- twice we have went against Carlos Villenueva, twice against Manny Parra, once against Dave Bush and once against Rich Hill. Those four pitchers have a combined 5.40 ERA and 1.63 WHIP and Dave Bush was sent to the minors before having to be recalled today to replace an injured Yovani Gallardo.

In all our schedule pretty much says that the Cards have played nine games out of thirty against seven pretty good starting pitchers who are, as a group, not having a good 2008. Of the teams with winning records we have played, we have gotten the tail end of their rotations except for Rich Hill. Maybe he should be added to the pretty good pitcher list. But it is late and I am not changing all these numbers.

So it is not just that we are getting an easy schedule thus far. Our "hard" part of the schedule has been a lot easier than expected as well.

So I am sticking with 78 wins."

Anyway, how many games do you think the Cardinals will win and why?