Should I Bail?

With the successful debut of Cincinnati Reds' OF Jay Bruce, one more player has been added to the pool of top bail pieces for 2009.  Earlier this week, the Dodgers added to their list of bail players when LHP Clayton Kershaw made his pro debut with six innings and seven Ks.

While some may believe it is still too early to begin bailing, the debuts of the top hitting and pitching prospects innthe minors usher in the bail season.  Following Bruce and Kershaw will be Padres LF Chase Headley as soon as the Padres feel comfortable that he will not be a Super Two player.

Sadly, none of these recalls help fantasy owners in AL-Only keeper leagues.  For these unfortunate souls who find themselves at the wrong end of the standings, there do not appear to be many minor leaguers who would trigger the desire to play for 2009.

I know because I find myself in just that predicament.  There are decent players to target in Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria and Carlos Quentin, but all of them pre-dated the decision to re-focus.

As a result, I took a deeper look at my 10th place AL-Only team to see if making bad bail trades is bettert han waiting for the turn in fortune.  A glance at the eight categories makes it obvious where I have gone wrong in 2008.  Out of a possible forty points in pitching, I have a total of six.  The minimum is four.  I am last in Wins and ERA.

On the hitting side, I have 35.5 points.  To me it is clear that one half of my 2008 strategy has worked exactly as expected.  The other half was a worse than worst case scenario.

Is a season lost if a team's hitting accounts for 86% of its points?