Buy Low On BABIP

by faketeams on Apr 29, 2008 6:31 AM EDT in Baseball

Yesterday, I listed the twenty starting pitchers with the best BABIP in order to see who could possibly be Sell High candidates or be pitchers to expect to have short-term difficulties. A regression to the mean BABIP of .300 would mean the pitcher gets hit hard in the near future. Today, I'll list those starting pitchers with the worst BABIPs for the opposite effects.

One thing to keep in mind, a higher BABIP could be more sustainable for those pitchers who have higher strikeout rates by defintion. A K means a ball isn't put in play. This could allow those types of pitchers to get by with a higher-than-normal BABIP. So Tim Lincecum and C.C. Sabthia may not have as much regression-to-the-mean in their future as an Ian Kennedy or Mark Buerhle might.

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Player	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004
Andrew Miller	0.462	0.333	0.242	NA	NA
Chad Billingsley	0.449	0.299	0.313	NA	NA
Shawn Hill	0.424	0.264	0.323	NA	0.533
Matt Belisle	0.417	0.336	0.306	0.330	NA
Bronson Arroyo	0.408	0.317	0.274	0.281	0.291
Philip Hughes	0.400	0.272	NA	NA	NA
Jason Bergmann	0.395	0.249	0.356	0.271	NA
Luke Hochevar	0.395	0.25	NA	NA	NA
Dustin McGowan	0.392	0.276	0.363	0.309	NA
Dustin Moseley	0.390	0.307	0.432	NA	NA
Ubaldo Jimenez	0.385	0.262	0.174	NA	NA
Tim Lincecum	0.380	0.292	NA	NA	NA
Ian Kennedy	0.373	0.231	NA	NA	NA
Chris Sampson	0.373	0.294	0.212	NA	NA
C.C. Sabathia	0.370	0.316	0.301	0.294	0.289
Mark Buehrle	0.368	0.292	0.313	0.295	0.299
Manny Parra	0.368	0.338	NA	NA	NA
Jesse Litsch	0.366	0.279	NA	NA	NA
Zach Duke	0.365	0.374	0.336	0.303	NA
Nick Blackburn	0.361	0.405	NA	NA	NA
Matt Chico	0.360	0.295	NA	NA	NA

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Comments

Easier to read

I noticed in checking on some of these pitchers that they only had 2 games played. Could there be a minimum amount of games played and (for my own laziness) ERA/WHIP numbers. You could drop the 2005/2004 columns since you said in the preface that .300 is the average.

by TheStoneCop on Apr 29, 2008 9:20 AM EDT reply actions

Sure

I could drop the 2005 and 2004 columns. I had them to show a little longer history, but there is a good argument to be made that anything pre-PED testing should be minimized. Anecdotally, players look smaller in the shoulders and pitchers appear to be a mile or two slower now. If that is more than a perceptual bias on my part, then those stats will not be as helpful.

When Morgan Ensberg was hitting 37 HRs, did he look so slight? I still have difficulty recognizing him when he is at the plate for the Yankees. He is so slight that I can't believe he wasn't bigger a couple/few years ago.

by faketeams on Apr 29, 2008 9:40 AM EDT reply actions