i think this would be a good topic to follow throughout the year to see how useless or helpful the pecota predictions are: preseason predicitions:
Posted on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 07:14:55 AM EDT

One final thought on the results of my mixed-league draft. I used the PECOTA projections to determine what the projected final standings would be based upon the drafted starting line-ups. I am happy to say, the team I drafted finishes first. Whether that reflects superior knowledge on my part is not provable. It could simply be that I know who PECOTA considers to be good and fit my draft to that knowledge.

One result I wanted to point out that fits with the pitching-heavy theme I have been exploring is Customer #9. He finished second overall in the projected standings and drafted Johan Santana in the 1st round, C.C. Sabathia in the 3rd, Jonathan Papelbon in the 4th, Scott Kazmir in the 6th, and Bobby Jenks in the 7th.

Despite five of his first seven selections being pitchers and seven of his first eleven overall, he was still able to draft enough offense to finish a projected 1st and 2nd in HRs and RBIs in this mixed league while dominating every pitching category. He was dead last in projected Runs and SBs, though, and that may be the drawback.

Or is it something to recognize and build into the strategy? Or am I not emphasizing the "projected" part of these results?

Team Pts HR RBI R SB AVG W SV K ERA WHIP
Shhh! Dotel 95 9 11 12 7 9 10 10 10 7 10
Customer #9 91 11 12 1 1 6 12 12 12 12 12
GFYS 79 12 10 8 4 10 5 7 8 8 7
South Slope Bombers 65 5 1 9 10 5 11 6 9 5 4
Stu Man Group 65 10 3 5 9 1 6 2 11 9 9
Hinz57 63 1 8 11 12 12 9 4 4 1 1
Psycho Janitor 59 4 6 6 4 8 2 5 3 10 11
BronxBombers 55 6 7 10 11 2 8 1 6 2 2
Spikesup 53 8 5 2 3 3 1 11 1 11 8
scrambledgreggs 52 7 1 7 6 7 3 7 2 6 6
The Rebellon 50 1 4 4 8 4 7 9 7 3 3
Dream Team 49 3 9 3 2 11 4 3 5 4 5

not that it means much now,but dreamteam is in 3rd and customer #9 is in last.......pecota i predict will be useless in the long run even if it is early