After looking at the worst five fantasy outfields by average ADP, I thought looking at the Top 10 fantasy outfields would be helpful. What made it especially so was my Fantasy Writers League draft where I reached for Justin Upton with the 193rd overall pick. Based on Mock Draft Central's ADP, I took Upton 3 and a half rounds too early.
What struck me beyond how undervalued I think Justin Upton is at the 235th pick is how good the Arizona Diamondback outfield will be in 2009. Assuming Upton produces this season, just a ADP of 163 would take the D'backs' avergae ADP to 3rd overall. The question is whether Chris B Young and Eric Byrnes hold their 2008 ADP's steady. I am confident Young will, but I am not so sure on a 32-year-old Eric Byrnes. At 50th overall, fantasy gamers are saying they are much more condident.
Additionally, note that most of the top 10 outfields contain just two Top 100 outfielders. Only the Dodgers appear to have good balance across the OF. However, that would change if Juan Pierre were benched and replaced by Andre Ethier. Pierre's ADP would plummett into the 200s and Ethier would still remain amongst one of the last OF taken.
A sleeper could be the Astros, though, who have second-year CF Michael Bourn being selected 191st. Assuming continued production of Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence, a 50 SB season from Bourn would get him into the ADP area currently occupied by Juan Pierre ~ 100. That'd be good enough for the Astros to land the best fantasy outfield going into 2009.
|1||COL||Matt Holliday||5||Willy Taveras||162||Brad Hawpe||75||80.7|
|2||TB||Carl Crawford||13||B.J. Upton||23||Rocco Baldelli||231||89|
|3||HOU||Carlos Lee||25||Michael Bourn||191||Hunter Pence||65||93.7|
|4||LAA||Torii Hunter||63||Garret Anderson||200||Vladimir Guerrero||21||94.7|
|5||MLW||Ryan Braun||15||Mike Cameron||224||Corey Hart||66||101.7|
|6||LAD||Juan Pierre||106||Andruw Jones||97||Matt Kemp||122||108.3|
|7||AZ||Justin Upton||235||Chris Young||60||Eric Byrnes||50||115|
|8||NYY||Johnny Damon||124||Bobby Abreu||44||Melky Cabrera||226||131.3|
|9||BOS||Manny Ramirez||35||Jacoby Ellsbury||127||J.D. Drew||243||135|
|10||DET||Curtis Granderson||27||Magglio Ordonez||31||Jacques Jones||380||146|