2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Top Player Is...

by faketeams on Dec 3, 2008 3:00 PM EST in Baseball

I have finished my rankings based on a weighted average of the past three seasons of performance along with a new twist to take more realistically into effect the innings and at-bat weightings for the ratios.

1. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets: With HRs down in 2008, Wright hit 33. Add-in a second consecutive season with an Avg better than .300, 30+ HRs, 100+ Runs and RBIS and 15+ SB, and you have the kind of consistency that makes David Wright the #1 fantasy baseball player.

2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees: Thanks to either my new weighting of AVG or rabid anti-Arod bias, the Yankees' $300MM man comes in second.

3. Matt Holliday, OF, Oakland Athletics: My rankings rely on past performance and do not include a park factor. No way I'd take Holliday the Athletic at this spot.

4. Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, Houston Astros: Last seasons' 18 SB were the reason, the former Rice University hitter was this high. No way he'd be here, SB or not, if he were a Rice U. pitcher. Regardless, if you believe the SB totals will repeat in 2009, Berkman is a great pick. Not at 4, but where he'd likely be taken in the second round.

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Comments

Dude?

What’s the point of listing Holliday 3rd only then to say you wouldn’t take him 3rd? OK, so in Alternate Baseball World, where Holliday still plays 81 games at Coors Launching Pad, he’s the 3rd-best fantasy baller. Fine.

Where do you rank him on Earth, where he plays 81 at McAfee?

by Bournigal on Dec 3, 2008 5:50 PM EST reply actions

Worse

I don’t think he’ll swipe 28 bags either. However, I didn’t want to alter the results of the formulas base don my ability to predict the future.

I’d probably take Holliday in the late 2nd round. If Mock Draft Central is correct, he wouldn’t fall that far. His ADP is 12.

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by faketeams on Dec 3, 2008 9:08 PM EST reply actions

can you show your work? I have a hard time believing anything that doesn’t have Pujols in the top 4.

by KDean75 on Dec 4, 2008 8:55 AM EST reply actions

Methodology

Take the five fantasy categories – R, HR, RBI, AVG and SB. Rank each player’s 3-yr weighted totals in each with 60% being the most recent season. Then rank each category relative to all the other player totals in that category. This gives five ranks. Take the average of those five categories. I also adjust the ratio categories by AB and IP weightings.

Pujols suffers from the lack of SB and is not as productive in Runs and RBIs as his real life value would make you think.

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by faketeams on Dec 4, 2008 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

so you put more value on a fluky year, Berkman and SB’s? So anyone that had a big year last year, Dempster, relative to actual extended time frame performance is rewarded?
That doesn’t seem to say much.

by KDean75 on Dec 4, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions

Fluky

I have many, many subjective evaluations, but I do these ranks to provide something outside of that. I can’t deny I agree with you that Berkman’s SBs are fluky. But what if he steals 10+ again? At 1B, that would be a major contribution to the category.

Honestly, isn’t one season of a major leaguer a large portion of their professional resume?

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by faketeams on Dec 5, 2008 6:37 AM EST up reply actions

ok, it just didn’t seem clear that that was the case.

by KDean75 on Dec 5, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

Method

makes sense to weight the most recent year, no? Pujols does well in 4 categories, but does not dominate any one, except for average, as the media would suggest. Ryan Howard dominates two categories, Jose Reyes performs above average/dominates in two categories.
the method also hurts a guy like Furcal or Rollins who either were injured or had a down year power-wise in 2008.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 4, 2008 8:58 PM EST reply actions

Right

But should I assume that the actual performance/behavior is irrelevent or should I just take the undisputed statistical data and let it speak for itself and then caveat it?

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by faketeams on Dec 5, 2008 6:33 AM EST up reply actions